生态保护视角下的黄河流域高质量发展非均衡性及演进趋势分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.182

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推动黄河流域高质量发展是我国经济建设全面迈入高质量发展的必经之路，客观评价流域发展质量是有效提高发展质量的前提。因此，基于5大发展理念及高质量发展的内涵，构建黄河流域高质量发展评价指标体系，采用TOPSIS评价法测算2010—2021年黄河流域及5大经济增长极60个地级市的高质量发展水平，进而采用Dagum基尼系数和方差分解的方法探究区域非均衡性发展及差异来源，运用Kernel密度估计方法分析区域高质量发展演进趋势。结果表明：（1）样本期间内，沿黄城市高质量发展呈现“N”型变化态势，并具有上升的发展趋势，总体上省会、沿海和资源型城市的发展水平处于领先地位。（2）流域总体差异呈缩小的趋势，区域内、区域之间的差距及变化趋势各不相同。（3）组间差距是高质量发展差异主要的空间来源，支撑环境差异是流域及5大经济增长极差异主要的结构来源。（4）流域及5大经济增长极的演进趋势各不相同，多数区域高质量发展水平持续向好。基于此，提出做好顶层设计方案，加强区域之间合作、打造特色经济增长极，避免同质化竞争、加强中心城市的辐射带动作用及提升经济发展软实力等建议。

关键词: 生态保护, 高质量发展, Dagum基尼系数, Kernel密度估计, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Promoting high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin is a necessary path for China’s economic construction to comprehensively move into the high-quality development stage. Objectively evaluating the quality of basin development is the basis for effectively improving the quality of development. Therefore, based on the five development concepts and the connotation of high-quality development, this study constructs an evaluation index system of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, measures the high-quality development level of 60 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin and the 5 economic growth poles from 2010 to 2021 using the TOPSIS evaluation method, explores the regional unbalanced development and the sources of differences using the Dagum Gini coefficient and the variance decomposition method, and applies the Kernel density estimation method to analyze the evolutionary trend of regional high-quality development. The results are as follows: (1) During the sample period, the high-quality development of cities along the Yellow River shows an “N”-shaped change and an upward trend, with the provincial capitals and coastal and resource-based cities leading the development level in general. (2) The overall difference in the basin is narrowing; however, the gap and the trend of change are different within and between regions. (3) Intergroup disparity is the main spatial source of high-quality development differences, and differences in the supporting environment are the main structural source of differences in the basin and the five economic growth poles. (4) The evolutionary trends of the river basin and the five economic growth poles are different, and most of the regions continue to improve their high-quality development levels. Based on these results, suggestions are made to develop a good top-level design program, strengthen cooperation between regions, create special economic growth poles, avoid homogeneous competition, strengthen the radiation-driven role of central cities, and enhance the soft power of economic development.

Key words: ecological conservation, high-quality development, Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, Yellow River Basin

王嘉嘉, 张轲. 生态保护视角下的黄河流域高质量发展非均衡性及演进趋势分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(4): 695-706.

WANG JiaJia, ZHANG Ke. Unevenness and evolutionary trend of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin from an ecological protection perspective[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 695-706.

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经济增长极	涵盖城市	GDP占比	人均GDP/元	三产比
山东半岛城市群	青岛市、济南市、威海市、烟台市、淄博市、潍坊市、东营市、泰安市、聊城市、枣庄市、临沂市、滨州市、日照市、济宁市、德州市、菏泽市	42.61	83737	7.26∶39.92∶52.18
中原城市群	郑州市、许昌市、洛阳市、焦作市、漯河市、三门峡市、新乡市、鹤壁市、开封市、平顶山市、周口市、商丘市、晋城市	23.26	66517	7.29∶43.37∶49.34
关中平原城市群	西安市、宝鸡市、渭南市、铜川市、商洛市、运城市、临汾市、咸阳市	11.90	57781	8.42∶40.13∶51.45
黄河几字弯都市圈	太原市、鄂尔多斯市、呼和浩特市、银川市、包头市、忻州市、晋中市、朔州市、榆林市、延安市、乌海市、吴忠市、中卫市、庆阳市、吕梁市、大同市、石嘴山市、乌兰察布市、巴彦淖尔市	19.20	85406	5.89∶51.82∶42.29
兰西城市群	兰州市、西宁市、海东市、白银市	3.03	53775	5.19∶35.02∶59.79

准则层	一级指标	二级指标	指标解释	指标属性	权重
生态保护	环境压力	单位GDP能耗	能源消耗量/GDP	-	0.03
		人均工业废水排放量	工业废水排放量/人口总数	-	0.03
		人均工业SO₂排放量	工业SO₂排放量/人口总数	-	0.04
		人均工业烟（粉）尘排放量	工业烟（粉）尘排放量/人口总数	-	0.03
		人均PM_2.5	PM_2.5/人口总数	-	0.03
		人均碳排放	碳排放/人口总数	-	0.03
	环境保护	一般工业固体废物综合利用率		+	0.04
		污水处理厂集中处理率		+	0.04
		生活垃圾无害化处理率		+	0.04
		人均公园绿地面积	公园绿地面积/人口总数	+	0.04
		城市公园个数		+	0.07
经济发展	市场环境	人均GDP		+	0.04
		FDI占比		+	0.04
		城乡收入差距		-	0.03
		金融环境	金融机构各项贷款余额	+	0.03
		区域市场需求规模	社会消费品总额/GDP	+	0.07
	支撑环境	创新创业指数		+	0.03
		万人专利授权量		+	0.04
		人均土地面积	行政面积/人口总数	+	0.03
		科学支出		+	0.05
		政府收入水平	一般公共预算收入	+	0.04
	民生环境	人均教育经费	教育经费/年末总人数	+	0.04
		万人拥有的医生数	（医生人数/年末总人数）×10000	+	0.04
		万人失业保险参保人数	（失业保险参保人数/年末总人数）×10000	+	0.04
		公共交通密度	客运量/年末总人数	+	0.04
		移动用户数量		+	0.04

等级	兰西城市群	黄河几字弯都市圈	关中平原城市群	中原城市群	山东半岛城市群
第1梯队	兰州市、西宁市	太原市、鄂尔多斯市、银川市、呼和浩特市	西安市	郑州市	青岛市、济南市、威海市、烟台市、泰安市
第2梯队		包头市、忻州市、庆阳市、晋中市	临汾市、宝鸡市	洛阳市、许昌市、焦作市、周口市、鹤壁市、漯河市、晋城市、新乡市、开封市、三门峡市	日照市、聊城市、东营市、枣庄市、临沂市、菏泽市、潍坊市、德州市、济宁市、滨州市
第3梯队	海东市、白银市	吕梁市、榆林市、朔州市、乌兰察布市、大同市、石嘴山市、巴彦淖尔市、乌海市、延安市、吴忠市、中卫市	咸阳市、渭南市、商洛市、运城市、铜川市	商丘市、平顶山市