塔里木河流域极端气候事件模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估研究

Abstract

Abstract: Reduction of uncertainty in simulations and projections of regional climate models is a critical issue for regional climate impact studies， especially in context of climate extremes. Based on daily grid datasets （1986-2005） of precipitation， maximum and minimum temperature that interpolated by observed data and simulated by regional climate model CCLM， 12 climate extreme indices recommended by the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM-ETCCDMI are calculated and the climate extreme simulation ability of CCLM is evaluated for Tarim River Basin （TRB） for the period 1986-2005. To improve the availability of simulated data， the systematic bias between observations and model projections are corrected by the equidistant CDF matching method （EDCDFm）. Then the projected change of the climate extreme is studied by the climate extreme indices calculated by the bias-corrected simulated data. The results show that the regional climate model CCLM can reproduce the spatial distributions of annual mean maximum temperature， minimum temperature， precipitation and climate extreme indices. The spatial correlation of temperature can arrive 0.97. The spatial correlations of most climate extreme indices are significant at 0.01 significance level. The application of the bias correction has shown that it effectively improves the bias in climate variables and most of the corresponding climate extreme indices of the TRB. However，the percentile-based tem- perature indices （Tx90p，tn10p，WSDI） are not simulated and improved well. But their bias and root-mean-square- error are improved by using the bias-correction method. Under RCP4.5 scenario， extreme warm events （WSDI，DTR，Tx90p，TXx） will increase. The annual total precipitation （PRCPTOT） will increase mainly in the edge of TRB. Extreme precipitation events （Rx1day，R95pTOT，SDII） have a decreasing trend. According to the spatial distribution of CDD and CWD，middle part of Tarim River basin will get drier and the edge of Tarim River Basin will get wetter during 2016-2035.

Key words: Tarim River Basin, climate extreme, regional climate model, RCP4.5

CLC Number:

K871.11

HUANG Jin-long，TAO Hui，SU Bu-da，Marco GEMMER，WANG Yan-jun. Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5 scenario[J]., 2014, 37(3): 490-498.

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Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5 scenario

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