基于PLUS-InVEST模型的甘肃通渭滑坡区生境质量时空变化及预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.425

Abstract

Abstract:

The study of the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in the landslide area of Tongwei County, Gansu Province, is crucial for the ecological sustainable development of Tongwei County and similar regions in northwest China. First, the patch-based land use simulation model was employed to predict land use types for the year 2035. Subsequently, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs model was utilized to analyze and predict ecosystem quality as well as the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Tongwei County and the landslide area from 1985 to 2020 and projected to 2035. Finally, the geodetector model was applied to identify the driving factors behind changes in habitat quality in the landslide area of Tongwei County. The results showed the following. (1) From 2020 to 2035, all land use types in Tongwei County are expected to expand and shift, with the most significant transition occurring from arable land to grassland. Arable land and grassland will continue to dominate the land use types, whereas other types will represent a relatively small proportion. (2) Spatially, habitat quality in Tongwei County and the landslide area exhibited an increasing trend from south to north, remaining predominantly low and lower grades. Habitat degradation in the landslide area was dominated by moderate and high degradation, with decreasing degradation from south to north. (3) Temporally, from 1985 to 2035, habitat quality in Tongwei County and the landslide area followed a pattern of decreasing, then increasing, and subsequently decreasing again. In Tongwei County, the linear trend of the average habitat quality showed a decline, whereas in the landslide area, it showed an increase. The average habitat degradation followed a pattern of decreasing followed by increasing, with a linear fit indicating an upward trend. (4) The normalized vegetation index (NDVI) is the most significant factor affecting spatial differentiation of habitat quality in landslide areas. Interactions among factors are predominantly characterized by nonlinear enhancement, with the interaction between NDVI and average annual precipitation being the strongest.

Key words: landslide area, PLUS model, InVEST model, habitat quality, geographical detector, Tongwei County

ZHANG Xiaoming, SU Xing, ZHANG Jun, JIA Jing. Spatiotemporal variation and prediction of habitat quality in Tongwei landslide area of Gansu Province based on PLUS-InVEST model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1220-1232.

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威胁因子	最大影响距离/km	影响权重	影响类型
耕地	4.0	0.6	指数
建设用地	10.0	1.0	指数
裸地	6.0	0.5	线性

土地利用类型	生境适宜性	耕地	裸地	建设用地
耕地	0.30	0.00	0.40	0.80
林地	1.00	0.60	0.20	0.80
草地	0.90	0.80	0.60	0.70
水域	0.70	0.50	0.40	0.70
裸地	0.50	0.06	0.00	0.60
建设用地	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.00

判断依据	交互作用类型
q(x₁∩x₂)<Min[q(x₁), q(x₂)]	非线性减弱
Min[q(x₁), q(x₂)]<q(x₁∩x₂)<Max[q(x₁), q(x₂)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(x₁∩x₂)>Max[q(x₁), q(x₂)]	双因子增强
q(x₁∩x₂)=q(x₁)+q(x₂)	独立
q(x₁∩x₂)>q(x₁)+q(x₂)	非线性增强

主导交互因子	X₂∩X₆	X₂∩X₇	X₆∩X₁₀	X₁∩X₃	X₁∩X₂	X₁∩X₇	X₉∩X₁₁
q值	0.291	0.241	0.229	0.229	0.223	0.140	0.041
交互结果	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强	非线性增强	双因子增强	双因子增强

Spatiotemporal variation and prediction of habitat quality in Tongwei landslide area of Gansu Province based on PLUS-InVEST model

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