基于多维评价方法的沿黄地区经济韧性时空分异规律

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.512

Abstract

Abstract:

Scientifically measuring economic resilience in the Yellow River region is essential for enhancing regional development quality and sustainability. This study constructed a comprehensive indicator system to evaluate economic resilience across the Yellow River region from 2003 to 2022, examining three critical dimensions: Resistance, resilience, and transformation. We employed the Theil index to quantify regional disparities and the Moran’s index to analyze spatial correlation patterns. Our analysis revealed four key findings: (1) Regional performance: The Yellow River region demonstrated stable economic operation with strong overall resilience during the study period, though a significant gap persists compared to national economic resilience levels. Among the dimensional subsystems, resilience scored highest while transformation scored lowest. (2) Spatial distribution: Economic resilience exhibits a clear center-periphery structure at the prefecture level. Higher resilience areas are concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula, provincial capitals in central and western China, and mineral-rich cities. Lower resilience characterizes Qinghai, Ningxia, most of Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, western Inner Mongolia, and western Shandong. (3) Temporal trends: The overall difference in economic resilience across the Yellow River region showed a decreasing trend over most of the study year. Regional differences contributed more than 75% to overall inequality, highlighting the need for coordinated intra-regional strategies. (4) Spatial correlation: Positive Moran’s index values throughout the study period indicate significant autocorrelation in economic resilience. Local spatial clustering revealed predominant “low-low” agglomeration (concentrated in Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia) and “high-high” agglomeration (primarily in Shandong).

Key words: economic resilience, spatiotemporal differentiation, indicator system method, the Yellow River region

XUE Chenhao, BAI Yongping, WANG Shengpeng. Spatio-temporal differentiation of economic resilience in the Yellow River region based on multidimensional evaluation methods[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1103-1114.

Figures/Tables 8

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目标层	系统层	准则层	指标层	单位	指标方向
沿黄地区经济韧性	抵抗力	经济发展水平	人均GDP	元	+
			人均固定资产投资	元	+
			财政自给率	%	+
		产业链结构与水平	制造业总产值	10⁴元	+
			第一产业增加值占GDP的比重	%	-
			劳动密集型制造业产业链占比	%	-
	恢复力	产业调整能力	地区工业规模	10⁴元	+
			单位GDP能耗	10⁴ tce	-
			产业结构高级化指数	—	+
			产业结构多样化指数	—	+
		经济普惠水平	人均可支配收入	元	+
		外贸结构	外贸依存度	%	+
		就业水平	就业人员占总人口比重	%	+
	转型力	创新支撑能力	R&D支出占GDP的比重	%	+
			规上工业企业有效专利数	件	+
			高技术产业企业数	个	+
		人力资本支持	万人在校大学生数	人	+
		绿色转型能力	区域旅游收入	10⁸元	+

年份	总体差异	区域间差异	区域间差异贡献率/%	区域内差异				区域内差异贡献率/%
年份	总体差异	区域间差异	区域间差异贡献率/%	总体	上游	中游	下游	总体	上游	中游	下游
2003	0.22	0.03	15.82	0.18	0.09	0.03	0.07	84.18	39.93	11.76	32.49
2004	0.22	0.04	19.24	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.07	80.76	35.05	12.03	33.68
2005	0.22	0.05	20.92	0.18	0.07	0.03	0.08	79.08	32.54	11.89	34.65
2006	0.21	0.05	22.48	0.16	0.07	0.03	0.07	77.52	31.16	13.36	33.00
2007	0.20	0.05	22.87	0.16	0.06	0.03	0.07	77.13	29.49	14.25	33.38
2008	0.20	0.04	22.04	0.15	0.06	0.03	0.06	77.96	30.30	15.21	32.45
2009	0.16	0.02	12.83	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.04	87.17	42.07	18.19	26.91
2010	0.16	0.02	11.72	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.05	88.28	41.00	16.56	30.72
2011	0.15	0.02	11.47	0.14	0.07	0.03	0.04	88.53	43.35	16.47	28.72
2012	0.15	0.02	13.45	0.13	0.06	0.03	0.04	86.55	41.52	16.90	28.13
2013	0.15	0.02	16.58	0.12	0.06	0.02	0.04	83.42	39.64	15.21	28.57
2014	0.14	0.03	20.20	0.11	0.05	0.02	0.04	79.80	35.76	15.06	28.99
2015	0.13	0.03	21.84	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	78.16	35.30	13.43	29.43
2016	0.13	0.03	21.97	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	78.03	35.69	13.55	28.79
2017	0.14	0.03	24.34	0.11	0.05	0.02	0.04	75.66	33.98	14.25	27.43
2018	0.13	0.03	22.69	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.04	77.31	34.99	13.87	28.45
2019	0.12	0.03	21.97	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	78.03	36.21	15.01	26.82
2020	0.11	0.03	22.95	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	77.05	34.24	14.68	28.13
2021	0.12	0.03	21.46	0.09	0.04	0.02	0.03	78.54	36.11	15.77	26.66
2022	0.13	0.03	21.61	0.10	0.05	0.02	0.03	78.39	37.92	17.06	23.41

年份	Moran’s I	年份	Moran’s I
2003	0.19	2013	0.20
2004	0.22	2014	0.22
2005	0.24	2015	0.22
2006	0.25	2016	0.22
2007	0.27	2017	0.23
2008	0.29	2018	0.21
2009	0.16	2019	0.14
2010	0.18	2020	0.17
2011	0.17	2021	0.18
2012	0.18	2022	0.20

Spatio-temporal differentiation of economic resilience in the Yellow River region based on multidimensional evaluation methods

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