近40 a流域气候变化与人类活动双重驱动下乌梁素海面积变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.734

Abstract

Abstract:

The variation in lake area is a key indicator of climate change and human activities within a basin. The spatiotemporal dynamics of lake area are essential for assessing changes in the lake’s ecological environment and their impacts. Utilizing the Landsat series of satellite images, this study applies the normalized difference water index (NDWI), the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), the interspectral relationship method, and the maximum likelihood supervised classification technique to extract the area of Wuliangsuhai Lake, Inner Mongolia, China. A comparative analysis was conducted to evaluate the performance of these four water body indices. The supervised classification method, which demonstrated the highest precision, was employed to extract the area of Wuliangsuhai Lake from 1986 to 2021, and the lake’s change trend was analyzed. Additionally, the trends and abrupt changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and potential evapotranspiration in the Wuliangsuhai Lake were analyzed using univariate linear regression, the M-K trend test, and the mutation test. The results indicate that the lake surface area of Wuliangsuhai Lake expanded from 316.19 km² to 332.34 km², reflecting an increase of 5.11%. Temperature and precipitation showed a significant upward trend, while relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration also increased, indicating overall warming in the basin. From 2002 to 2021, the sown area of crops demonstrated a strong positive correlation with lake area, with GDP contributing 76.83%, population contributing 18.37%, and potential evapotranspiration contributing 7.73% to the overall change.

Key words: lake area, water index, climate change, human activities, drivers

SUN Jinrong, LI Xing, WEI Jingting. Area change characteristics of Wuliangsuhai Lake driven by climate change and human activities in the basin in the past 40 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1688-1699.

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References 38

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数据系列	影像成像日期（年-月）	行列号	分辨率/m
Landsat5 TM	1986-10、1987-08、1988-08、1989-10、1990-09、1991-07、1992-09、1993-09、1994-07、1998-09、1999-09、2000-08	128/32	30
Landsat7 ETM+	2001-08、2002-09、2004-07、2005-06、2006-07、2007-07、2008-09、2009-06、2010-06、2011-08、2012-08、2014-09	128/32	30
Landsat8 OLI	2013-09、2015-07、2016-06、2017-07、2018-06、2019-07、2020-07、2021-09	128/32	30

水体指数	计算公式	作者
NDWI	NDWI=(Green-NIR)/(Green+NIR)	Mcfeeters^[21]
MNDWI	MNDWI=(Green-MIR)/(Green+MIR)	徐涵秋^[22]
谱间关系	Green+Red>NIR+SWIR1	周成虎^[23]

水体提取方法	总体分类精度/%	Kappa 系数	制图精度/%	用户精度/%
NDWI	39.62	0.0725	15.68	91.68
MNDWI	43.19	0.1202	26.42	93.86
谱间关系	55.42	0.3195	91.26	73.83
监督分类	97.80	0.9498	96.81	96.43

年份	变化量/km²	变化率/%	变异系数/%	平均值/km²
1986—2021年	16.14	5.11	4.77	338.36
1986—2001年	10.67	3.37	3.30	326.07
2002—2021年	-9.88	-2.89	3.62	348.20

气象因子	倾向率/(10a)^-1	线性趋势检验	趋势统计量（Z）	M-K趋势检验	变化趋势
气温/℃	0.529	<0.01	5.088	显著	上升
降水量/mm	6.566	>0.05	0.505	不显著	上升
相对湿度/%	1.166	>0.05	-1.898	不显著	下降
潜在蒸散发/mm	14.480	>0.05	4.593	不显著	上升

Area change characteristics of Wuliangsuhai Lake driven by climate change and human activities in the basin in the past 40 years

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指标	气温	降水量	相对湿度	潜在蒸散发
相关系数	0.351^*	0.176	-0.132	-0.428^**
指标	人口	国内生产总值	农作物播种面积	总入湖水量
相关系数	0.587^**	0.468^**	0.432^**	-0.149

影响因子	系数	标准化系数	t	显著性P
常量	414.594	-	6.646	0.013
人口	0.573	0.341	3.209	0.003
国内生产总值	0.031	0.685	5.338	0.001
潜在蒸散发	-0.140	-0.313	-3.100	0.004
总入湖水量	-3.459	-0.395	-2.954	0.006

影响因子	影响因子变化	湖泊面积变化/km²	贡献率/%
人口	7.10×10⁴人	4.07	18.37
GDP	5.49×10¹⁰元	17.00	76.83
潜在蒸散发	-12.21 mm	1.71	7.73
入湖水量	0.68×10⁸ m³	-2.34	-10.57

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