天山冰湖分布时空特征及驱动力分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.673

Abstract

Abstract:

Glacial lake area change is an indicator of global climate change. The topography of Tianshan Mountains is complex, and the glacial lakes are widely distributed, so their variation characteristics and response mechanism to climate change need to be further explored. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this paper studied the changes of glacial lakes in the Tianshan Mountains in the past 20 years, and analyzed the driving forces in combination with precipitation and temperature. The results showed that: (1) There were 1532 glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains in 2020, with an area of 164.02 km². The distribution of glacial lakes in the Tianshan Mountains was characterized by more in the west and less in the east, and glacial lake area with an annual average growth rate of 3.47% and 0.63% in the east and west, respectively. (2) The glacial lakes at lower altitudes (<3600 m) in the study area generally showed an expanding trend, and the glacial lakes with an area <0.1 km² showed a more obvious change. (3) The results of the geographic detector showed that temperature and glaciers were the main driving factors affecting the change of the glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains increased significantly, while the temperature showed an insignificant trend of decrease. The glacial lake area in this region continued to expand under the stable and sufficient glacial meltwater and runoff recharge. Research results can provide scientific basis for the rational development of water resources and the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst disaster in the Tianshan Mountains.

Key words: spatiotemporal characteristics, glacial lakes, GEE, climate change, driving force analysis

WANG Nan, LIU Zexuan, ZHENG Jianghua, ZHONG Tao, MENG Chengfeng. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1472-1481.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Types of interaction between two covariates"

判据	交互作用类型
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M i n [q X 1, q X 2]$	非线性减弱
$M i n [q X 1, q X 2] < q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M a x [q X 1, q X 2]$	单因子非线性减弱
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > M a x [q X 1, q X 2]$	双因子增强
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) = q X 1 + q X 2$	独立
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > q X 1 + q X 2$	非线性增强

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Fig. 8

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传感器	获取时间	分辨率/m	传感器	获取时间	分辨率/m
TM	2000年8—11月	30	TM	2011年9—10月	30
TM	2001年9—10月	30	TM	2012年8—11月	30
TM	2002年9—10月	30	OLI	2013年9—10月	30
ETM+	2003年9—10月	30	OLI	2014年9—10月	30
ETM+	2004年9—10月	30	OLI	2015年9—10月	30
ETM+	2005年8—11月	30	OLI	2016年9—10月	30
ETM+	2006年9—10月	30	OLI	2017年9—10月	30
ETM+	2007年9—10月	30	OLI	2018年9—10月	30
TM	2008年9—10月	30	OLI	2019年9—10月	30
TM	2009年9—10月	30	OLI	2020年9—10月	30
TM	2010年9—10月	30

年份	天山西部		天山东部
年份	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²
2000	760	79.38	525	42.90
2005	898	112.20	597	65.39
2010	827	84.30	674	68.39
2015	871	95.61	580	60.97
2020	828	89.87	704	74.14

年份	冰川变化量/km²	冰川平均变化速率/%·a^-1	冰湖平均变化速率/%·a^-1
2000—2005	-11443.39	-4.20	7.54
2005—2010	-8138.94	-3.99	-2.34
2010—2015	-3952.99	-2.55	0.42
2015—2020	-3577.59	-2.72	0.79

因变量	驱动因素	解释度（q值）
冰湖面积	降水变化率	0.2999
	温度变化率	0.3543
	冰川面积	0.5221
	冰川数量	0.4678
	平均海拔高度	0.3585
冰湖数量	降水变化率	0.5245
	温度变化率	0.8274^*
	冰川面积	0.4792
	冰川数量	0.2873
	平均海拔高度	0.8358^*

因变量	驱动因素交互	解释度（q值）	交互作用类型
冰湖面积	冰川面积∩冰川数量	0.6936	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩降水变化率	0.9236	非线性增强
	冰川面积∩温度变化率	0.9629	非线性增强
	冰川面积∩平均海拔高度	0.9194	非线性增强
	冰川数量∩降水变化率	0.9053	非线性增强
	冰川数量∩温度变化率	0.5593	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩平均海拔高度	0.5592	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩温度变化率	0.5479	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.5480	双因子增强
	温度变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.4206	双因子增强
冰湖数量	冰川面积∩冰川数量	0.8893	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩降水变化率	0.9201	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩温度变化率	0.9568	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩平均海拔高度	0.9398	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩降水变化率	0.7819	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩温度变化率	0.8674	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩平均海拔高度	0.8673	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩温度变化率	0.9113	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.9111	双因子增强
	温度变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.8672	双因子增强

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains

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