中国新世纪水稻生产负外部性评估及时空演变研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.279

Abstract

Abstract:

Research on the indirect value of rice production has predominantly focused on ecosystem services, often overlooking the importance of negative externalities. Addressing these externalities is crucial for ecological regulation and the promotion of sustainable agriculture. This study employed market valuation and spatial autocorrelation methods to evaluate the negative externality value of rice production in China, using panel data from 2000 to 2021 across various provinces. The analysis covered greenhouse gas emissions, pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, plastic film residue, water resource consumption, and energy pollution from agricultural machinery. The findings reveal that: (1) The mean annual value of negative externalities in national rice production was approximately 2080.27×10⁸ yuan, with the contributions from greenhouse gas emissions, fertilizers, pesticides, plastic waste, water resource consumption, and agricultural machinery energy pollution being 35.93%, 20.71%, 10.27%, 9.04%, 17.44%, and 6.61%, respectively. (2) The total value of negative externalities showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, with 2012 marking a turning point. This trend reflects the impact of new era of ecological control measures. (3) There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of negative externalities, mainly concentrated to the east of the Hu Line. The annual mean values in rice-producing regions were as follows: central China (1025.45×10⁸ yuan), south China (426.96×10⁸ yuan), southwest China (329.36×10⁸ yuan), northeast China (221.52×10⁸ yuan), and north China (61.99×10⁸ yuan). There was a positive global correlation between external cost values and geographical space, with local spatial autocorrelation evolving from high-high clustering in the southeast to low-low clustering and insignificance toward the northwest. High-high clusters were predominantly found in central and southern rice-growing areas of China, while low-low clusters were mainly in the northern region of China. This paper presents a novel approach to assessing negative externalities in rice production, offering a comprehensive and dynamic global perspective. It also proposes strategic responses involving government, market, and farmer-led initiatives.

Key words: rice production, negative externality, value evaluation, spatial-temporal evolution, ecological control

ZHOU Rongji, LUO Lizhuang, WU Sibin. Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of negative externalities of rice production in China in the 21^st century[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 830-840.

Figures/Tables 5

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年份	温室气体排放	化肥污染	农药污染	地膜污染	水资源消耗	农机能源污染
2000	0.533^***	0.572^***	0.592^***	0.299^***	0.507^***	0.144
2012	0.401^***	0.493^***	0.539^***	0.235^**	0.343^***	0.137
2021	0.350^***	0.470^***	0.551^***	0.306^***	0.286^**	0.291^***

Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of negative externalities of rice production in China in the 21^st century

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Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of negative externalities of rice production in China in the 21st century

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Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of negative externalities of rice production in China in the 21^st century