基于RSEI和ANN-CA-Markov模型的伊宁市生态环境质量动态监测及预测研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.446

Abstract

Abstract:

Yining City, located at the northwest border of Xinjiang in the Ili River Valley, China, has fertile land, abundant water and biological resources, and favorable natural conditions for the development of agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry. However, due to the rapid urbanization process, the ecology has been damaged, and the quality of the ecological environment has declined. Therefore, it is of great significance to scientifically and reasonably utilize Landsat TM5/OLI-TIRS8 remote sensing data to conduct a dynamic evaluation and prediction of the ecological environment in Yining City from 2006 to 2021 based on the remote-sensing ecological index (RSEI) and ANN-CA-Markov model. The results show that: (1) Greenness and humidity have a positive impact on the ecological level of Yining City, while dryness and heat have a negative impact. The main factors affecting the ecological environment quality of Yining City are, in order, greenness, heat, dryness, and humidity, which are consistent with the ecological conditions exhibited in the Ili River Valley region. (2) The average RSEI indicator of Yining City is 0.451, which is at a moderate level overall. The ecological environment quality change shows a trend of gradually narrowing extremes, but the areas with medium and poor RSEI indices are increasing year by year, and the overall ecological environment presents a stable-to-worse development trend. (3) It is predicted that by 2026 and 2031, the ecological environment in the northern slope region of Yining City will improve to a certain extent. In combination with the overall urban planning of Yining City, Xinjiang, from 2018 to 2035, the ecological environment quality in the urban area will still remain at a medium level in the future, and the city will continue to expand outward, resulting in a continuous reduction in arable land area.

Key words: RSEI, Landsat, eco-environmental quality prediction, ANN-CA-Markov model, Yining City

CHEN Mianwei, FENG Dan, ZHANG Shikai, JIANG Yu, ZHANG Xinlan. Dynamic monitoring and prediction of eco-environmental quality in Yining City based on RSEI and ANN-CA-Markov model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(6): 911-921.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 33

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序号	传感器类型	日期（年-月-日）	云量/%
1	Landsat TM5	2006-09-06	1.00
2	Landsat TM5	2011-09-20	2.00
3	Landsat OLI-TIRS8	2016-09-01	0.40
4	Landsat OLI-TIRS8	2021-09-15	0.75

卫星	传感器类型	波段	名称	波长范围/μm	中心波长/μm
Landsat TM5	陆地成像仪TM	ρ_blue	蓝波段	0.450~0.520	0.485
		ρ_green	绿波段	0.520~0.600	0.560
		ρ_red	红波段	0.630~0.690	0.660
		ρ_NIR	近红外波段	0.760~0.900	0.830
		ρ_SWIR1	短波红外1	1.550~1.750	1.650
		ρ_SWIR2	短波红外2	10.400~12.500	11.475
	热红外传感器TIRS	ρ_TIRS1	热红外1	2.080~2.350	2.215
Landsat OLI-TIRS8	陆地成像仪OLI	ρ_coastal	海岸波段	0.433~0.453	0.443
		ρ_blue	蓝波段	0.450~0.515	0.482
		ρ_green	绿波段	0.525~0.600	0.562
		ρ_red	红波段	0.630~0.680	0.655
		ρ_NIR	近红外波段	0.845~0.885	0.865
		ρ_SWIR1	短波红外1	1.560~1.660	1.610
		ρ_SWIR2	短波红外2	2.100~2.300	2.200
		ρ_pan	全色波段	0.500~0.680	0.640
		ρ_cirrus	卷云波段	1.360~1.390	1.375
	热红外传感器TIRS	ρ_TIRS1	热红外1	10.60~11.19	10.900
	热红外传感器TIRS	ρ_TIRS2	热红外2	11.50~12.51	12.000

年份	分量指标	PC1	PC2	PC3	PC4
2006	NDVI	0.511	0.675	-0.514	0.138
	WET	0.496	-0.362	0.221	0.758
	NDSI	-0.488	-0.266	-0.726	0.405
	TEM	-0.505	0.585	0.399	0.493
	特征值	0.374	0.027	0.014	0.009
	贡献率/%	85.67	6.66	5.19	2.48
2011	NDVI	0.531	0.781	-0.372	0.180
	WET	0.468	-0.348	0.288	0.716
	NDSI	-0.482	-0.155	-0.665	0.550
	TEM	-0.515	0.496	0.581	0.390
	特征值	0.246	0.034	0.027	0.015
	贡献率/%	76.39	10.60	8.35	4.66
2016	NDVI	0.524	0.512	-0.582	0.386
	WET	0.464	0.660	0.229	0.536
	NDSI	-0.474	-0.309	-0.732	0.739
	TEM	-0.507	0.480	0.267	0.131
	特征值	0.258	0.032	0.029	0.004
	贡献率/%	79.67	10.00	9.02	1.31
2021	NDVI	0.515	0.810	-0.270	0.268
	WET	0.447	-0.392	0.349	0.677
	NDSI	-0.496	-0.130	-0.602	0.613
	TEM	-0.508	0.417	0.665	0.307
	特征值	0.297	0.037	0.020	0.008
	贡献率/%	82.17	10.14	5.61	2.08

年份	差		较差		中等		较好		好
年份	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
2006	161.10	23.89	113.32	16.80	161.14	23.89	152.03	22.54	86.84	12.88
2011	102.70	15.23	196.86	29.19	196.37	29.12	122.17	18.12	56.32	8.35
2016	126.63	18.78	203.17	30.13	162.34	24.07	125.77	18.65	56.51	8.38
2021	148.18	21.97	162.91	24.16	165.20	24.50	120.56	17.88	77.57	11.50

生态质量变化等级		面积
生态质量变化等级		2006—2011年	2011—2016年	2016—2021年	2006—2021年
变差	-4	1.16	2.36	4.67	0.30
	-3	16.52	9.23	22.45	9.43
	-2	49.95	43.58	43.27	50.55
	-1	110.77	173.13	112.34	142.02
不变	0	315.53	268.45	247.89	312.99
变好	+1	156.18	118.97	181.61	125.06
	+2	22.42	48.40	50.72	28.74
	+3	1.33	9.72	9.93	5.10
	+4	0.56	0.57	1.54	0.24

Dynamic monitoring and prediction of eco-environmental quality in Yining City based on RSEI and ANN-CA-Markov model

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