2000—2019年赛里木湖湖冰物候特征变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.029

Abstract

Abstract:

Lake ice phenology is a sensitive indicator of climate change. To clarify the changes in ice characteristics and influencing factors of lakes in Tianshan Mountains, which has alpine characteristics, Sayram Lake of Xinjiang in China is taken as the object of study. Sayram Lake is located in a closed alpine basin of brackish water. With its unique geographical location, the lake’s evolution and ice conditions are rarely influenced by human activities, and it can be an ideal research area for lake ice phenology in this region. This study conducted an analysis mainly based on MODIS, Chinese lake data, and meteorological data to reveal the phenological characteristics of lake ice on Sayram Lake during 2000—2019 by applying threshold, trend analysis, and other methods. We also identified the climatic factors that have influenced lake ice phenology over time and draw some conclusions. Results are summarized as follows: (1) Freeze-up start (FUS), freeze-up end (FUE), break-up start (BUS), and break-up end (BUE) on Sayram Lake usually occurred on November 2, January 18, April 26, and May 17, respectively. The average rates of FUE, BUS, and BUE were -0.25 d·a^-1, -0.03 d·a^-1, and -0.44 d·a^-1, respectively. The average complete ice duration (CID, between FUE and BUS) and the average ice duration (ID, between FUS and BUE) were 99 d and 196 d, respectively. (2) In the past 20 years, the BUS and BUE of Sayram Lake showed an earlier trend, and the FUE also showed an earlier trend, which was related to the decreasing trend of the average temperature in January. The BUS and BUE of Sayram Lake are related to the rising trend of average temperature in April to May and May to June. The ID was shortened, whereas the CID was prolonged. (3) Sayram Lake can be characterized by similar spatial patterns in both freeze-up (FU) and break-up (BU) processes, as parts of the surface that freeze earlier start to melt first. A more complex lake edge corresponds to an earlier start of the freezing time. Generally, freeze begins from the lakeshore and then gradually expands to the center of the lake until the lake is completely frozen. The ice begins to break in late April, and thawing begins from the northeastern lake shore. The lake ice from the shore moves gradually to the center of the slow melting and is completely melted by mid-May. Compared with the freezing process, melting on Sayram Lake is faster, lasting only 40 d, which is distinctly different from other lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. (4) The variations of phenology and evolution of the Sayram Lake ice are the results of local and climatic factors. The temperature, accumulated negative accumulated temperature, lake morphology factors, lake area, and shape of the shoreline are the main factors that affect the phenology of lake ice. However, the effect of lake salinity and geological structure on lake ice evolution cannot be ignored. This study on the phenological characteristics of lake ice on Sayram Lake can provide supplemental data for arid/semi-arid areas that lack data and provide more accurate parameter indicators and scientific basis for studying climate change in Sayram Lake and even Tianshan.

Key words: lake ice, phenology, MODIS, Sayram Lake, climate change

QIN Qiyong,LI Xuemei,ZHANG Bo,LI Chao,SUN Tianyao. Change of ice phenology in the Sayram Lake from 2000 to 2019[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 37-45.

Figures/Tables 8

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Tab. 3

References 27

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年份	Landsat值 /km²	MODIS平均值 /km²	Landsat值与MODIS 平均值差值/km²	误差率	MODIS最大值 /km²	Landsat值与MODIS 最大值差值/km²	误差率
2005	461.98	444.25	17.73	0.04	462.00	-0.02	0.00
2007	461.52	436.00	25.52	0.06	461.00	0.52	0.00
2010	462.41	440.75	21.66	0.05	466.50	-4.09	0.01
2014	461.74	441.00	20.74	0.04	459.50	2.24	0.00
2015	462.79	448.75	14.04	0.03	466.25	-3.46	0.01

年份	开始冻结	完全冻结	开始融化	完全融化	湖冰冰期	完全封冻期
2000/2001	288	24	128	144	221	104
2001/2002	304	24	108	142	203	84
2002/2003	298	22	130	150	217	108
2003/2004	306	8	112	126	186	104
2004/2005	334	22	120	158	189	98
2005/2006	322	8	122	134	177	114
2006/2007	322	23	106	119	162	83
2007/2008	295	15	122	166	237	107
2008/2009	338	22	98	119	146	76
2009/2010	298	30	118	134	201	88
2010/2011	299	8	122	127	193	114
2011/2012	290	18	121	134	210	103
2012/2013	322	14	122	128	171	108
2013/2014	279	22	124	134	220	102
2014/2015	313	8	121	142	194	113
2015/2016	321	29	106	134	179	77
2016/2017	312	30	122	135	188	92
2017/2018	290	8	117	135	210	109
2018/2019	290	8	106	140	215	98

湖冰物候特征	湖泊面积	年均气温	累积负积温	气温<0 ℃天数	湖岸线长度	湖泊形态因子
开始冻结	0.61^**	0.17	-0.12	-0.65^**	-0.97^**	-0.64^**
完全冻结	0.11	-0.98^**	-0.52^*	0.62^**	-0.69^**	-0.10
开始消融	-0.63^***	-0.34	0.22	-0.96^**	-0.64^**	-0.86^**
完全消融	0.88^**	-0.64^**	0.30	-0.54^*	-0.87^**	-0.83^**
封冻期	-0.56^*	-0.43	0.72^**	0.67^**	-0.41	0.94^**
完全封冻期	-0.45	-0.70^**	0.20	-0.41	0.92^**	0.47^*

Change of ice phenology in the Sayram Lake from 2000 to 2019

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