Abstract:

The macro-food concept presents a profound interpretation of the implications of food security in the new era, presenting a shift from single-grain production to the construction of diversified food supply systems. From the perspective of the macro-food concept, this study is grounded in the “self-sufficiency” hypothesis of grains and important agricultural products in Gansu Province, China, and analyzes panel data from 2014 to 2023 in 86 counties and districts in Gansu Province as research units. It constructs an evaluation index for the supply security of grains and important agricultural products under the macro-food concept from three dimensions of supply security: quantity, structure, and ecology. It employs the entropy-weighted technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), the inter-annual change trend slope (slope) analysis method, kernel density estimations, and spatial autocorrelation analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of supply security level and introduces an individual fixed effects model to explore influencing factors. The following results are obtained. (1) The supply security level in Gansu Province fluctuated from 2014 to 2019 and subsequently rose steadily from 2019 to 2023. The supply security indices of each county and district continued to reach higher value s, along with the frequency and concentration of advantageous regions. (2) In terms of space, the supply security level in Gansu Province showed a differentiated evolution characteristic of “overall improvement, slight decline in local regions, and faster development in the west than in the east”. Meanwhile, in terms of spatial agglomeration, it presented a distribution pattern of “hot agglomeration in the Hexi Corridor and Longdong regions and cold correlation in some areas of Longzhong and Longnan”. (3) High per capita regional gross domestic product and sufficient employment rates in agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery, and forestry serve as important supporting factors for supply security, whereas an excessive service burden over rural grassroots organizations weakens the foundations of supply security. Based on the findings, the study proposes countermeasures and suggestions for improving food security from the perspective of the macro-food concept, including strengthening regional coordination, promoting industrial feedback to agriculture, and improving the efficiency of grassroots governance.

Key words: macro-food concept, food security, supply security assessment, spatiotemporal differentiation, influencing factors, Gansu Province