Abstract:

Natural climate solutions are a critical strategy in the land sector for mitigating climate change, with significant potential to enhance carbon storage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study utilizes a straightforward empirical model to quantify the historical carbon sequestration contributions of national ecological restoration projects and proactive management measures in Xinjiang, China from 2000 to 2020. By examining 14 natural climate solutions pathways, the study estimates the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emission reductions in Xinjiang’s forest, grassland, and cropland ecosystems from 2020 to 2060. The findings indicate that the historical contribution of natural climate solutions in Xinjiang to mitigating climate change averaged an annual rate of 29.98 Tg CO₂e·a^-1 between 2000 and 2020, with forest restoration serving as a key carbon sequestration pathway over the last two decades. From 2020 to 2060, when food and fiber security are guaranteed, the estimated mitigation potential is projected to be 49.53 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, with forest ecosystems contributing a potential of 10.91 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, grassland ecosystems 10.13 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, and cropland ecosystems representing the largest potential at 28.31 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, thus accounting for 57.35% of total mitigation potential. Of the 14 pathways, conservation tillage presents the highest mitigation potential at 22.72 Tg CO₂e·a^-1 making up 46.06% of all pathways. Therefore, effective cropland management measures hold significant promise for enhancing carbon sequestration in Xinjiang in the future.

Key words: natural climate solutions, terrestrial ecosystems, arid regions, carbon sequestration potential, conservation tillage