近60 a青海高原大气可降水量时空变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.652

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on data from 42 surface meteorological stations in Qinghai Province, China from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitable water vapor (PWV) on the Qinghai Plateau were calculated and analyzed using an empirical formula between PWV and surface water vapor pressure. Results showed a clear increasing trend in PWV, with maximum values in summer, exhibiting a unimodal distribution. Spatially, PWV increased from west to east and from north to south, with high values in the eastern agricultural area and low values in the Qaidam Basin. Seasonal maxima were observed in the eastern agricultural area, while the minimum occurred in winter. Vertical spatial variation showed the opposite trend, generally increasing from east to west and from south to north, with the smallest values at the eastern and southern edges of the province, and the largest values at the eastern lake region, central Qaidam Basin, and northeastern Qinghai. The annual mean PWV on the Qinghai Plateau exhibited both abrupt and periodic variations, with a significant change detected in 1997. Periodic variations were most pronounced on the 6-10 year timescale. The Hurst exponent values were all greater than 0.8, indicating strong persistence and a high probability that the current upward trend will continue in the future. Correlation analysis revealed that PWV had the lowest correlation with the Asian Meridional Circulation Index and the highest correlation with the Arctic Oscillation Index.

Key words: precipitable water vapor, space-time change, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet, Hurst index, Qinghai Plateau

YI Junlan, ZHANG Xian, QI Donglin, XU wei, XIN Pingping. Spatio-temporal variations of atmospheric precipitable water in the Qinghai Plateau in the past 60 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1736-1746.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 31

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时间尺度	平均值 /mm	最大值 /mm	最小值 /mm	气候倾向率 /mm·(10a)^-1	相关系数（r）
全年	87.6	97.6	80.1	1.01	0.46^**
春季	16.4	20.1	14.2	-0.02	-0.02
夏季	42.7	50.0	39.0	0.49	0.36^**
秋季	21.6	24.5	17.6	0.36	0.37^**
冬季	6.9	8.6	5.2	0.17	0.43^**

年份类型	回归方程	复相关系数	F
多年平均	PWV=67.791+3.689WD-7.537JD-0.023HB	0.949	115.440
多雨年	PWV=52.185+3.833WD-7.313JD-0.023HB	0.955	129.785
少雨年	PWV=46.880+4.180WD-8.296JD-0.025HB	0.947	109.588

要素	1961—1997年		1997—2020年
要素	平均值	气候倾向率	平均值	气候倾向率
PWV	86.1 mm	0.15 mm·(10a)^-1	89.9 mm	0.75 mm·(10a)^-1
北极涛动	5.0	-5.0	23.6	9.4
平均气温	1.8 ℃	0.21 ℃·(10a)^-1	3.1 ℃	0.31 ℃·(10a)^-1
降水量	348.2 mm	1.4 mm·(10a)^-1	375.2 mm	39.3 mm·(10a)^-1

Spatio-temporal variations of atmospheric precipitable water in the Qinghai Plateau in the past 60 years

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