黄河流域旅游经济差异及关键驱动因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.409

Abstract

Abstract:

The co-ordinated development of the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin of China is essential for promoting the region's high-quality development. Considering the level of tourism specialization as the research object, this paper constructs a driving factor index system from five dimensions: regional economy, innovation capability, production factors, tourism services, and tourism policies. Based on the panel data of 61 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2020, we apply kernel density estimation, Moran index, and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model to study the spatio-temporal evolution of tourism economic differences and driving factors in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that: (1) Regional differences in the tourism economy in the Yellow River Basin continue to expand, and right-trailing phenomena have occurred in some years. (2) The Global Moran's I index of tourism specialization level is positive, and there is a spatial agglomeration trend. In the types of local spatial agglomeration, the scopes of “high-high” “low-low” and “high-low” agglomeration areas expand, whereas the scopes of “low-high” agglomeration areas narrow. From a spatial perspective, the differences in the Yellow River Basin tourism economy also expand. (3) The promotion effects of the nine driving factors on the tourism economy present three temporal characteristics: stable, decreasing, and increasing. (4) The key driving factors of economic development through tourism in upstream cities of the Yellow River Basin are regional economy, innovation capability, and tourism services. The factors that drive midstream cities are regional economy, tourism services, and policies, and the major driving factors in downstream cities are innovation capability, production factors, and tourism policies.

Key words: tourism economic differences, driving factors, GTWR model, Yellow River Basin

WANG Huixian, YANG Bei, YANG Ningjun, LI Luyao. Tourism economic differences and key driving factors in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 515-527.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Relevant parameters of GTWR model"

参数名称	带宽	残差平方和	残差估计标准差	赤池信息量准则	$R 2$	校正后 $R 2$	时空距离比
数值	1.988170	1.181310	0.038596	-2887.580000	0.890380	0.889120	0.268765

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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一级指标	二级指标	指标含义	属性
区域经济	经济规模	人均GDP	+
	产业结构	第三产业占GDP比重	+
创新能力	创新投入	R&D支出占GDP比重	+
	创新人才	每万人拥有高校毕业人数	+
生产要素	旅游资源	旅游资源禀赋水平	+
	人力资源	旅游从业人员比重	+
旅游服务	旅游中介	每万人拥有旅行社数	+
	旅游交通	公路网密度	+
制度政策	旅游政策	政策支持情况	+

年份	全局莫兰指数	方差	Z值	P值
2008	0.286798	0.004820	4.370966	0.000012
2011	0.286680	0.004995	4.292147	0.000018
2014	0.474707	0.004907	7.014870	0.000000
2017	0.315604	0.004772	4.810092	0.000002
2020	0.278316	0.005041	4.154692	0.000033

驱动因素	均值	最大值	最小值	标准差
人均GDP	0.054807	0.055271	0.053706	0.000337
第三产业占GDP比重	0.007544	0.007601	0.007481	0.000026
R&D支出占GDP比重	0.626679	0.637167	0.614523	0.005326
每万人拥有高校毕业人数	0.015324	0.016088	0.014839	0.000315
旅游资源禀赋水平	0.013626	0.014785	0.012352	0.000643
旅游从业人员比重	0.723524	0.725536	0.722577	0.000647
每万人拥有旅行社数	0.049973	0.052044	0.046982	0.001158
公路网密度	0.019554	0.019658	0.019258	0.000074
政策支持情况	0.004711	0.004902	0.004534	0.000079

Tourism economic differences and key driving factors in the Yellow River Basin

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