祁连山地区过去500 a年代际旱涝事件演化及驱动因素分析

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Evolution and driving factors of megadrought and pluvial events in the Qilian Mountains during the past 500 years

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.070

Abstract:

Qilian Mountains is a climate-sensitive area in the arid areas of northwest China, where extreme megadrought events considerably impact vegetation, frozen soil, and other ecological elements. This paper uses three hydroclimate reconstruction datasets to analyze the occurrence, evolution, and possible driving mechanism of megadrought and pluvial events in the Qilian Mountains over the past 500 years. The results showed that the climate in the Qilian Mountains has shown a clear wetting trend since the recent decades, and the wetness trend after 1951 has exceeded the range of natural variability in the historical period. The RAP dataset provided a good representation of the historical dry and wet conditions in the study area. Significant variations were observed in precipitation during the past seven megadrought events in the region, with the highest severity occurring during the drought period of 1786—1796. Furthermore, considerable variations were noted in the duration of the four megapluvial events, with the longest duration being a wet event that lasted for 42 years from 1968 to 2009. Megadrought and pluvial events were influenced by climate forcing and internal variability of sea surface temperatures (SST). The decadal SST modes in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and their phase combinations were key factors regulating the megadrought and pluvial events in the Qilian Mountains. Solar radiation exhibited an in-phase variation with the precipitation in the Qilian Mountains, while volcanic activity primarily affected megadrought events. This study highlights the importance of a long-term perspective for assessing current hydroclimate anomalies in the Qilian Mountains and including possible roles of external forcing and sea surface temperature variability in assessing the future megadrought and pluvial risks in this region.

Key words: megadrought/pluvial events, Little Ice Age, driving factors, Qilian Mountain

REN Zijian, WANG Jianglin, XU Henian, QIN Chun. Evolution and driving factors of megadrought and pluvial events in the Qilian Mountains during the past 500 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 214-227.

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数据集信息	RAP	MADA	IGGPRE
来源	Shi等^[31]	Cook等^[32]	Shi等^[33]
时间	1470—2013年	1300—2005年	1470—2000年
季节	6—8月	6—8月	5—9月
分辨率	2.0°×2.0°	2.5°×2.5°	0.5°×0.5°
代用指标	453个树轮年表71条DWI	327个树轮年表	372个树轮年表107条DWI
方法	DWI的水平变换与外推，树木年轮的PPR	PPR	PPR
范围	9.75°~56.25°N 60.25°~144.25°E	10.00°~57.50°N 60.00°~145.00°E	18.00°~54.00°N 72.00°~136.00°E

影响因素	来源	年份	代用指标
TSI	Lean^[37]	850—2016年	1610年以前：冰芯和树轮记录；1610—1882年：模型估计；1610年以后：观测记录
AOD	Crowley^[38]	1000—1998年	克里特岛和格陵兰岛的2个冰芯记录
PDO	Macdonald等^[39]	993—1996年	北美的2个树轮年表
AMV	Wang等^[40]	800—2010年	环北大西洋地区的46个气候代用记录

互相关	平滑前	平滑前1951—2000年	10 a平滑
RAP&IGGPRE	0.48^**	0.38^**	0.85^**
RAP&MADA	0.31^**	0.32^*	0.64^**

旱涝事件	RAP	IGGPRE	MADA
年代际干旱事件	1 1475—1500（26）	1475—1502（28）	1475—1500（26）
	2 1582—1591（10）	-	1585—1602（18）
	3 1622—1631（10）	-	-
	4 1634—1655（22）	1645—1659（15）	1645—1655（11）
	5 1683—1703（21）	1685—1730（46） 1685—1730（46）	-
	6 1706—1725（20）	1685—1730（46） 1685—1730（46）	1709—1719（11）
	7 1786—1796（11）	1788—1799（12）	-
	-	-	1919—1933（15）
年代际湿润事件	-	-	1526—1553（28）
	1 1560—1579（20）	1560—1583（24）	-
	-	-	1607—1621（15）
	-	-	1798—1812（15）
	2 1898—1910（13）	1887—1912（26）	-
	3 1938—1951（14）	1940—1952（13）	-
	4 1968—2009（42）	1966—1996（31）	1978—1992（15）

影响因素	回归分析		共线性分析
影响因素	回归系数	显著性	膨胀系数（VIF）
TSI	0.459	**	1.027
AOD	-0.012	-	1.194
PDO	0.088	*	1.068
AMV	0.185	**	1.187

Just accepted

Online first

Just accepted

Online first

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