干旱区文化旅游地社会-生态系统恢复力年际变化及影响因素——以甘肃省敦煌市为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.354

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper mainly studies the interannual changes and influential factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destinations in arid areas. Existing studies on social-ecological systems have not paid much attention to cultural tourism destinations in the arid regions of western China. Therefore, taking Dunhuang City as a typical case, in this paper, we constructed an indicator system to evaluate the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations from four aspects: social, economic, cultural, and ecological environment. We also conducted research using gray correlation TOPSIS, coupling coordination degree model, and BP neural network. As a result, the following were found. (1) Compared with endogenous variables, the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions strongly reflects exogenous variables. The social-ecological system resilience of Dunhuang City has been good from 2007 to 2018 and can be divided into fluctuating, slow-growth, and rapid-rise stages. (2) Various subsystems have different impacts on the resilience of the social-ecological system of cultural tourism destinations in arid regions. Cultural and ecological environment subsystems play a leading role in determining the degree of social-ecological system resilience in Dunhuang City. (3) The degree of coupling and coordination between the social-ecological system and its subsystems shows an upward trend. The subsystems generally play a positive role in promoting the overall degree of coordination of the system, and the action intensity increases with time. (4) The contribution rate of the factors is as follows: Dunhuang Baidu index>Dunhuang Research Institute graduate students>various protection units of cultural relics>total carbon emission of tourism>cultural industry operation units.

Key words: arid area, cultural tourism destination, social-ecological system, Dunhuang City

LI Guanfeng,JIAO Huafu,WANG Qun. Interannual variation and influencing factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destination in arid area: A case of Dunhuang City, Gansu Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 935-945.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Measurement index system of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destination in arid area"

子系统层	准则层	指标层	指标含义（性质）	权重
社会	脆弱性	人口自然增长率/‰	反映人口自然增长情况（-）	0.0218
		旅游者与当地居民比/%	反映系统承受外界压力（-）	0.0144
		敦煌百度指数	反映旅游网络关注度（-）	0.0196
		刑事案件立案数/起	反映社会稳定性（-）	0.0293
	应对能力	教育支出与财政支出比/%	反映教育投入力度（+）	0.0154
		各类专业科学技术人员与全市从业人员比/%	反映科学技术水平（+）	0.0306
		社会保障与就业占财政支出比/%	反映社会保障能力（+）	0.0298
		公路、铁路和航空的客运量/10⁴人次	反映交通可达性（+）	0.0260
经济	脆弱性	旅游收入增加值与GDP比/%	反映旅游业的依赖度（-）	0.0121
		旅游人数增长率/%	反映旅游规模（+）	0.0070
		旅游业拉动率/%	反映旅游业对相关产业的带动作用（+）	0.0208
		文化产业经营单位数量/家	反映文化产业规模（+）	0.0335
		文化产业增长速度/%	反映文化产业发展速度（+）	0.0333
		第三产业从业人员与全市总从业人员比/%	反映旅游发展所形成的就业能力（+）	0.0238
	应对能力	人均GDP/元	反映经济总体发展水平（+）	0.0193
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	反映居民经济能力（+）	0.0177
		财政自给率/%	反映政府应对风险能力（+）	0.0301
		产业结构多样化指数	反映产业结构平衡程度（+）	0.0212
		人均固定投资资产金额/元	反映文化产业投资强度（+）	0.0320
文化	脆弱性	修复文物病虫害面积占壁画比重/%	反映文物承受微生物的影响（-）	0.0094
		各类文物保护单位数量/处	反映文物资源禀赋（+）	0.0687
		文物对外艺术展览活动/项	反映文物价值及知名度（+）	0.0235
		“文化遗产日”系列教育推广活动/项	反映文物的社会教育活动（+）	0.0319
	应对能力	敦煌研究院从业人员数量/人	反映文化博物馆管理规模（+）	0.0321
		敦煌研究院研究生数量/人	反映文化博物馆管理质量（+）	0.0161
		国内外文物进修学习的人员费用/元	反映文物保护的资金力度（+）	0.0302
		国内外文物学术交流和合作项目/场·项^-1	反映文物学习及信息交流（+）	0.0343
		获批省级以上文物保护科研项目/项	反映文物科研力度（+）	0.0203
		文物、档案和图像资料信息数字化/件·张^-1	反映技术对文物保护程度（+）	0.0329
		中国敦煌石窟保护研究基金会的公益活动金额/10⁴元	反映非正式制度对文物的保护力度（+）	0.0348
生态环境	脆弱性	干旱指数	反映系统干旱状况（*）	0.0179
		径流变率/%	反映河流径流量稳定性（*）	0.0198
		平均相对湿度/%	反映文物受空气水分侵蚀程度（-）	0.0255
		年温差/℃	反映文物受物理风化侵蚀程度（-）	0.0318
		旅游业碳总排放量/t	反映文物受氧化程度（-）	0.0176
		年均植被指数	反映植被状况（+）	0.0176
		年日照时数/h	反映气候环境（+）	0.0121
		自然灾害数量/件	反映系统受灾害干扰（-）	0.0151
	应对能力	生态防护林造林面积/10⁴ hm²	反映系统抗风沙干扰（+）	0.0453
		环保支出占财政支出比/%	反映环保支持程度（+）	0.0172
		人均园林绿地面积/m²	反映生态环境保育水平（+）	0.0080

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Tab. 4

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等级	评价等级	恢复力指数的取值范围
1级	恢复力较低	[0.00, 0.33)
2级	恢复力中等	[0.33, 0.66)
3级	恢复力较高	[0.66, 1.00)

变量	回归系数	标准误差	t	P	R²	调整R²	F
常数	-0.012	0.013	-0.901	0.368	0.999	0.999	F=5157.520,P=0.000
社会	0.118	0.022	5.276	0.000^**
经济	0.229	0.012	19.930	0.000^**
文化	0.429	0.017	25.558	0.000^**
生态环境	0.279	0.029	9.647	0.000^**

变量	t值
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
敦煌百度指数	11.013^**
文化产业经营单位		17.260^**
各类文物保护单位			6.304^**
敦煌研究院研究生数量			3.183^*
旅游业碳总排放量				6.572^**
R²	0.961	0.984	0.979	0.901
D-W值	2.128	3.003	2.729	1.376
F	121.289	297.917	103.588	43.188

Interannual variation and influencing factors of social-ecological system resilience of cultural tourism destination in arid area: A case of Dunhuang City, Gansu Province

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