新疆城镇化绿色发展时空分异及驱动因子探究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.160

Abstract

Abstract:

As the key point of western development and the core area of “The Belt and Road” urbanization in Xinjiang, China has distinct regional characteristics and geographic attributes. Scientific diagnosis and identification of driving factors for green urbanization can provide empirical evidence for overall border development and security planning. According to the theory of green development and spatial structure, using entropy method, geostatistical analysis, and exploratory spatial analysis method, based on the ArcGIS spatial analysis platform, the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of urbanization green development in 14 prefectures (cities) in Xinjiang of China in 2008—2018 has been studied. The mentioned conclusions have been reached: (1) Xinjiang’s urbanization is characterized by a lack of green development, slow growth, and a lack of spatial dependence and heterogeneity. Furthermore, there is significant core-periphery differentiation between southern and northern Xinjiang, and the development of population, economy, society, and ecological urbanization is not coordinated. The localized and introverted functions of land bridges and resources are more prominent, while the geopolitical functions such as globalization and openness of ports and passages are not obvious. (2) The scale of urban population and ecological endowments are more important in the temporal and spatial differentiation of urbanization green development than economic growth, and social urbanization is lower; moreover, the economic and social functions have increased significantly, and the homogeneity and isomorphism of the temporal and spatial differentiation of urbanization are becoming stronger. (3) The GDP per capita is the core driver of the temporal and spatial differentiation of green development, and quality and efficiency are the most important driving force for the green development of Xinjiang’s urbanization; investment scale and benefits, education, culture, and medical construction are effective ways of green development. Foreign trade, population agglomeration, and structural upgrading, on the other hand, are weak and growing slowly. The government should concentrate on developing new production capacity and new impetus for green urbanization, actively participating in global and regional economic and trade cooperation, accelerating integration into the domestic and international dual cycle, and improving infrastructure and public service guarantees.

Key words: green development, temporal and spatial differentiation, driving factors, geographic detectors, northern and southern Xinjiang

ZHANG Junmin,RONG Cheng,MA Yuxiang. Spatial and temporal differences and driving factors of the green development of urbanization in Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 251-262.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 35

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目标层	准则层	指标	计算	单位	权重
空间分异	人口城镇化	地州人口密度（X1）	地州人口/全疆	%	0.062
		城镇人口密度（X2）	城镇人口/全疆城镇	%	0.074
		城镇化率（X3）	城镇人口/地州人口	%	0.041
		人口自然增长率（X4）	出生率-死亡率	%	0.100
	经济城镇化	人均GDP（X5）	GDP/地州人口	%	0.086
		二产占比（X6）	第二产业产值/GDP	%	0.043
		三产占比（X7）	第三产业产值/GDP	%	0.035
		人均进出口总值（X8）	进出口总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.103
	社会城镇化	人均固定资产投资（X9）	固定资产投资总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.067
		人均消费品零售总额（X10）	社会消费品零售总额/城镇人口	10⁴元·人^-1	0.062
		人均受教育水平（X11）	受教育人数/城镇人口	%	0.059
		人均医疗水平（X12）	医疗技术人数/城镇人口	%	0.045
	生态禀赋	人均耕地面积（X13）	地州耕地面积/城镇人口	km²·人^-1	0.154
	生态禀赋	人均水资源（X14）	地州水资源总量/城镇人口	m³·人^-1	0.070

驱动因子	q值	P值
人口城镇化	0.549	0.539
经济城镇化	0.400	0.716
社会城镇化	0.061	0.716
生态城镇化	0.427	0.160

驱动因子	q值	P值
X1	0.013	0.938
X2	0.157	0.760
X3	0.034	0.858
X4	0.034	0.858
X5^*	0.928	0.000
X6	0.190	0.370
X7	0.163	0.607
X8	0.007	0.970
X9^*	0.818	0.018
X10	0.115	0.792
X11^*	0.533	0.033
X12	0.195	0.531
X13	0.119	0.567

驱动因子	X5	X9	X11
X5	0.928	-	-
X9	0.939	0.818	-
X11	0.979	0.981	0.533

年份	人口城镇化	经济城镇化	社会城镇化	生态城镇化
2008	0.104	0.295	0.077	0.338
2010	0.184	0.160	0.169	0.095
2013	0.177	0.616	0.187	0.055
2016	0.464	0.425	0.095	0.072
2018	0.136	0.998	0.136	0.222

Spatial and temporal differences and driving factors of the green development of urbanization in Xinjiang

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驱动因子	2008年	2010年	2013年	2016年	2018年	累计增长/%
X1	0.119	0.058	0.072	0.033	0.013	-88.912
X2	0.257	0.066	0.087	0.001	0.157	-38.753
X4	0.015	0.073	0.520	0.363	0.034	118.845
X5	0.123	0.653	0.635	0.690	0.928	657.482
X6	0.100	0.107	0.258	0.041	0.190	88.985
X7	0.339	0.099	0.072	0.178	0.163	-52.042
X8	0.151	0.016	0.843	0.892	0.007	-95.490
X9	0.195	0.002	0.607	0.404	0.818	320.134
X10	0.053	0.258	0.731	0.880	0.115	117.941
X11	0.003	0.419	0.363	0.386	0.533	19257.761
X12	0.047	0.340	0.212	0.192	0.195	316.846
X13	0.202	0.193	0.020	0.021	0.119	-41.014
X14	0.029	0.330	0.216	0.044	0.043	49.336

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