基于MCR模型的卡拉麦里地区生态安全格局变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.20

Abstract

Abstract:

The Kalamaili Mountain Ungulate Nature Reserve (Kalamaili Reserve) is an important wildlife reserve in northern Xinjiang, China with high ecological conservation values. From 2005 to 2015, intense human development in Kalamaili region severely damaged the local ecological environment, dramatically reducing the number of khulan (Equus hemionus) and other large wildlife. Since 2015, the quality of the Kalamaili region ecology has improved dramatically due to the development of ecological protection and restoration. Against this backdrop, the article is based on Landsat images of 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019 and data on the natural and human condition in the study area. In addition, the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model was used to study changes in the ecological security patterns of Kalamaili Reserve from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was combined to predict the ecological security pattern of the region in 2025. Next, important factors affecting the ecological security of Kalamaili Reserve were analyzed. There is specific guiding importance for preserving the ecological environment and wildlife in Kalamaili Reserve. The results suggest that (1) ecological security patterns can be divided into safe, low-safe, and unsafe zones. The safe zone shrank to 3237.31 km² from 2010 to 2015, changing mainly to low-safe and unsafe zones. Human activity during this period had a severe impact on the ecological environment of the region. (2) The area of the safe zone was 6265.91 km² in 2019. Low-safe and unsafe zones have basically been restored to their natural state, indicating good results based on ecological governance efforts. (3) The Kalamaili Region landscape pattern is not expected to change significantly by 2025. Grasslands and unused land still dominate the region. The area of ecologically safe zone will increase to 6421.88 km², and the low-safe and unsafe zones will continue to decrease. (4) A belt of the low-safe zone will be formed near the traffic route in the middle of the Kalamaili Reserve, which will be the focus of future ecological monitoring and protection of the Kalamaili Reserve. (5) Human activity is a sensitive factor that affects the ecological environment of Kalamaili Reserve. It has been suggested that future conservation efforts should continue to limit human economic development activities in Kalamaili Reserve. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and inspection works around the roads in the Kalamaili Reserve, accumulate data on wildlife near the road, and provide the scientific basis for the future construction of the Kalamaili Reserve.

Key words: the cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model, ecological security pattern, the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, Kalamaili region

ZHAO Xiaofeng,WANG Jinlin,WANG Shanshan,WANG Quan. Changes of ecological security pattern in Kalamaili region based on MCR models[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1396-1406.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 42

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栖息地指标	适宜（1）	次适宜（3）	低适宜（5）	不适宜（7）
距水源点距离（A1）/km	<5	5~15	-	>15
坡度（A2）/（°）	0~5	5~15	-	>15
植被类型（A3）	高	中	低	-
土壤类型（A4）	-	-	-	风沙土
景观类型（A5）	草地	未利用地	林地	人工表面、湿地
距G216距离（A6）/m	>1200	601~1200	400~600	<400
距高速公路、铁路距离（A7）/m	>1200	601~1200	400~600	<400
距经济区距离（A8）/m	>5000	4001~5000	2001~4000	<2000
距矿点距离（A9）/m	>5000	4001~5000	2001~4000	<2000

年份	A1	A2	A3	A4	A5	A6	A7	A8	A9
1990—2000	0.4160	0.0899	0.1873	0.0386	0.1001	0.0504	-	0.1178	-
2010—2015	0.3467	0.0843	0.1561	0.0322	0.0868	0.0403	-	0.0699	0.1932
2019—2025	0.3900	0.0843	0.1756	0.0362	0.0887	0.0429	0.0912	0.0912	-

阻力值	10	30	50	100
保护区区划（B1）	核心区	缓冲区	实验区	开发区
景观类型（B2）	草地	未利用地	林地	人工表面、湿地
距道路距离（B3）/m	>1200	601~1200	400~600	<400

年份	B1	B2	B3
1990—2000	-	0.6667	0.3333
2010—2025	0.4373	0.3992	0.1635

生态等级	1990年	2000年	2010年	2015年	2019年	2025年
安全	7438.64	7439.00	3831.63	3237.31	6265.91	6421.88
低安全	3182.42	3182.77	6258.13	6143.12	3863.57	3741.25
不安全	8199.04	8198.34	4214.41	4918.49	4616.66	4583.73

Changes of ecological security pattern in Kalamaili region based on MCR models

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