国土空间生态保护修复对中国脱贫地区经济发展的影响——基于PSM-DID方法的实证分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.525

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the impact of territorial spatial ecological protection and restoration on the economic development of China’s poverty-alleviated regions provides valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic development and rural revitalization in these areas during the post-poverty era. Using the double-difference propensity score matching (PSM-DID) model, this study analyzed economic panel data from 58 national-level poverty-alleviated regions involved in the first and second batches of national integrated protection and restoration projects for mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts (the “Shanshui Project”) during China’s 13^th and 14^th Five-Year Plans. These were compared with data from 182 non-participating poverty-alleviated regions that had similar natural, social, and economic conditions from 2010 to 2020. This study assesses the impact of ecological protection and restoration on the economic development of these regions. The results indicate the following: (1) Under otherwise unchanged conditions, the economic development rate of poverty-alleviated regions implementing territorial spatial ecological protection and restoration increased significantly by 0.0329 compared to regions that did not implement such measures. This conclusion remains robust after balance tests, parallel trend tests, and placebo tests. (2) In the implementation of spatial ecological protection and restoration, both short-term and long-term economic development effects should be considered. Realizing the value of ecological products is a key driver of sustainable economic development in poverty-alleviated regions. To achieve this, increased policy support is recommended for this region, with a focus on improving systems for realizing the value of ecological products. This approach would enable these areas to successfully transform “green waters and mountains” into “golden mountains and silver mountains”.

Key words: national spatial ecological protection and restoration, poverty-alleviated regions, economic development, PSM-DID

ZHANG Shuaihang, YUAN Ye, MIAO Yingfeng, CAO Chenyu, ZHAO Jiayu, WANG Shuang, LI Qian. Impact of territorial spatial ecological protection and restoration on the economic development of China poverty-alleviated regions:Empiricalanalysis based on PSM-DID method[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 930-940.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab. 1

County selection for the treatment group and control group"

处理组（58个）

对照组（182个，PSM筛选前）

围场满族蒙古族自治县、丰宁满族自治县、平泉市、娄烦县、静乐县、宁武县、同江市、抚远市、桦川县、绥滨县、汤原县、饶河县、桦南县、安图县、于都县、宁都县、赣县区、会昌县、寻乌县、安远县、兴国县、上犹县、石城县、南康区、瑞金市、封丘县、滑县、秭归县、长阳土家族自治县、五峰土家族自治县、巴东县、乳源瑶族自治县、马山县、隆安县、天等县、龙州县、田东县、平果市、德保县、靖西市、那坡县、凌云县、乐业县、田林县、隆林各族自治县、西林县、广安区、纳雍县、赫章县、大方县、安塞区、延川县、延长县、宜川县、吴起县、宜君县、印台区、古浪县

虞城县、睢县、新县、商城县、郧县、郧西县、红安县、英山县、封开县、广宁县、武乡县、兴县、岚县、和顺县、平顺县、六枝特区、西秀区、安龙县、周至县、镇安县、横山区、南郑区、佳县、勉县、略阳县、洋县、上林县、田阳区、资源县、融安县、融水苗族自治县、三江侗族自治县、大新县、宁明县、昭平县、富川瑶族自治县、凤山县、忻城县、东兰县、金秀瑶族自治县、宣汉县、和龙市、遂川县、万安县、永新县、吉安县、井冈山市、莲花县、乐安县、广昌县、横峰县、修水县、承德县、隆化县、滦平县、明水县、青冈县、望奎县、兰西县、海伦市、克东县、拜泉县、代县、偏关县、河曲县、盐山县、饶阳县、临城县、甘南县、泰来县、延寿县、林甸县、保德县、岢岚县、神池县、五寨县、右玉县、海兴县、巨鹿县、南皮县、新河县、广宗县、镇赉县、通榆县、莫力达瓦达斡尔族自治旗、鄂伦春自治旗、龙井市、汪清县、靖宇县、大安市、广信区、余干县、鄱阳县、茶陵县、炎陵县、新邵县、邵阳县、隆回县、洞口县、绥宁县、新宁县、武冈市、平江县、石门县、慈利县、安化县、宜章县、汝城县、桂东县、安仁县、新田县、中方县、范县、台前县、兰考县、汝阳县、竹山县、竹溪县、房县、丹江口市、恩施市、利川市、建始县、宣恩县、咸丰县、来凤县、鹤峰县、江华瑶族自治县、水城区、正安县、道真仡佬族苗族自治县、吴川市、习水县、普定县、龙胜县、罗城仫佬族自治县、环江县、巴马县、都安县、大化县、晴隆县、荔波县、罗甸县、望谟县、册亨县、黄平县、雷山县、麻江县、平塘县、长顺县、三都县、榕江县、台江县、从江县、沿河县、兴仁市、平坝区、镇宁县、水城区、威宁县、黔西市、织金县、清涧县、米脂县、石楼县、方山县、汾西县、隰县、吉县、大宁县、定边县、子洲县、蒲城县、澄城县、耀州区、白水县、天祝藏族自治县、皋兰县、宁陵县、商水县、民权县、柘城县

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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变量名称	计算方式	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
经济发展	（现期GDP-基期GDP）/基期GDP	0.12	0.11	-0.46	0.98
时间虚拟变量	2016年之前取值为0，2016年之后取值为1	0.45	0.49	0.00	1.00
政策虚拟变量	接受生态保护修复的县取值为1；否则为0	0.24	0.43	0.00	1.00
DID变量	时间虚拟变量×政策虚拟变量	0.11	0.31	0.00	1.00
地面起伏度	县区地面起伏度	1.15	3.11	0.01	48.00
金融风险	金融机构贷存比	1.94	12.37	0.05	204.77
政府规模	公共财政支出/GDP	0.35	0.19	0.07	2.07
产业结构	第一产业劳动力/总人口	0.29	0.12	0.03	2.71
社会消费零售总额	县区社会消费零售总额	29.35	28.86	1.18	283.30
消费能力	社会消费品零售总额/GDP	0.32	0.15	0.03	1.54
工业总产值占GDP比例	工业总产值/GDP	0.37	0.16	0.01	0.99

处理	处于共同支持范围内的匹配样本数		总计
处理	不支持	支持	总计
对照组	2	2000	2002
处理组	0	638	638
总计	2	2638	2640

变量	匹配前后	处理组均值	对照组均值	标准偏差百分比	t值	P值
地面起伏度	匹配前	0.941	0.971	-4.4	-0.96	0.336
地面起伏度	匹配后	0.941	0.926	2.1	0.39	0.693
金融风险	匹配前	0.954	0.889	11.2	2.37	0.018
金融风险	匹配后	0.954	0.971	-2.8	-0.49	0.622
政府规模	匹配前	0.352	0.348	2.1	0.45	0.652
政府规模	匹配后	0.352	0.356	-2.5	-0.43	0.666
产业结构	匹配前	0.282	0.284	-2.5	-0.55	0.580
产业结构	匹配后	0.282	0.286	-3.9	-0.70	0.484
社会消费零售总额	匹配前	25.513	30.115	-17.8	-3.77	0.000
社会消费零售总额	匹配后	25.513	25.966	-1.7	-0.33	0.741
消费能力	匹配前	0.285	0.335	-36.5	-7.77	0.000
消费能力	匹配后	0.285	0.287	-1.0	-0.18	0.854
工业总产值占GDP比例	匹配前	0.376	0.370	3.9	0.89	0.375
工业总产值占GDP比例	匹配后	0.376	0.370	3.8	0.67	0.505

变量	（1）	（2）	（3）
变量	GDP增长率（P值）	GDP增长率（P值）	GDP增长率（P值）
DID变量	0.0303^**（0.0126）	-0.0388^***（0.0080)	0.0329^***（0.0125）
地面起伏度	-	0.0089^*（0.0052）	0.0092^*（0.0050）
金融风险	-	0.0003（0.0056）	0.0043（0.0055）
政府规模	-	-0.0440^*（0.0262）	-0.0048（0.0259）
产业结构	-	-0.0551（0.0384）	-0.0107（0.0375）
社会消费零售总额	-	-0.0004^**（0.0002）	0.0002（0.0002）
消费能力	-	-0.0900^**（0.0369）	-0.1370^***（0.0361）
工业总产值占GDP比例	-	0.0151（0.0244）	-0.0004（0.0237）
常数项	0.1660^***（0.0060）	0.1820^***（0.0234）	0.1930^***（0.0231）
时间虚拟变量	控制	不控制	控制
政策虚拟变量	控制	不控制	控制
观测值	1018	1018	1018
R-squared	0.118	0.083	0.145

变量	（1）	（2）
变量	提前2 a（P值）	提前3 a（P值）
DID变量	0.0328^**（0.0139）	0.0275^*（0.0149）
地面起伏度	0.0322^***（0.0051）	0.0312^***（0.0053）
金融风险	-0.0141（0.0120）	-0.0149（0.0121）
政府规模	-0.0575（0.0454）	-0.0561（0.0452）
产业结构	-0.0996（0.0882）	-0.1060（0.0879）
社会消费零售总额	0.0017^***（0.0004）	0.0016^***（0.0004）
消费能力	-0.4030^***（0.0756）	-0.3970^***（0.0758）
工业总产值占GDP比例	0.2690^***（0.0624）	0.2710^***（0.0627）
观测值	986	986
R-squared	0.504	0.502

Impact of territorial spatial ecological protection and restoration on the economic development of China poverty-alleviated regions:Empiricalanalysis based on PSM-DID method

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