Abstract: As one of the national strategic industries,tourism plays a vital role in supporting the development of related industries,creating employment opportunities,increasing tax revenue,and promoting the overall economic development. Tourism and economic development rely heavily on the ecological environment;however,rapid development tends to negatively affect the environment. Therefore,dealing with the relationship between the three is key to achieving sustainable development. Based on existing research,this paper selects 30 corresponding indicators to establish a tourism industry-economic development-ecological environment evaluation index composed of seven criteria,including the tourism market scale,economic benefits to tourism,tourism industry level,economic scale,economic structure characteristics,environmental pollution status,and environmental governance outcomes. This study also uses the entropy method to standardize the data and further calculate the weights of the indicators of the three systems. As a basis for constructing this evaluation index,this paper uses the coupling coordination model to conduct a comprehensive empirical study of the coupling coordination development of the tourism industry,economic development,and the natural environment in Xinjiang,China from 2008 to 2017. Subsequently,this study predicts the coupling coordination degree of the three systems for the next five years using a GM（1,1） forecasting model. The research demonstrates that the comprehensive evaluation index of the three systems all increase at different degrees. Among these,the economic development system increases the most. Although the tourism industry and ecological environment increase overall,they all decline in the short term under the influence of the economy and the overall social environment. The effect of development on the three sectors of the tourism industry,economic development,and the ecological environment in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2017 can be divided into two types. The comprehensive evaluation index of the natural environment from 2008 to 2010 was higher than that of the tourism industry and economic development,which is ecologically advanced. From 2011 to 2017,the comprehensive evaluation index of economic development was higher than that of the tourism industry and ecological environment. There is a high degree of correlation among the three systems. Over time,the coupling coordination degree shows a trend of rising volatility. Concerning coordination,overall coordination gradually evolves from primary coordination to intermediate coordination. The GM （1,1） forecasting model displayed a high degree of fitting. In the next few years,the coupling coordination degree of the three major systems in Xinjiang will slightly increase and reach a good coordination level in 2021.

Key words: coupling coordination model, tourism industry, economic development, ecological environment, Xinjiang