三江源地区草原森林基于空间网格的雷电危险性评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.198

Abstract

Abstract:

Lightning disasters in “Three River Source” region, Qinghai Province, China resulted in the most severe casualties in June, primarily between 12:00 and 20:00. The highest number of casualties occurred around 16:00, with the most fatalities due to lightning strikes around 17:00. The areas of Nangqen County, Zadoi County, Yushu City in the Yushu Prefecture, and gade in the Golog Prefecture experienced a higher proportion of casualties. The highest flash densities in “Three River Source” region were concentrated in the southern parts of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture, while the highest ground flash intensities were observed in the eastern and southern parts of Golog Prefecture and the southern part of Yushu Prefecture. Lightning disasters were most densely concentrated in the central and eastern areas of Golog Prefecture and the central and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture. The high-risk areas for lightning disasters were distributed across Zhaoxiao Township, Maozhuang Township, Dongba Township, Niangla Township, Jinisai Township in Nangqen County, and Xialaxiu Town in Yushu City, Yushu Prefecture, as well as Baima County, Jigzhi County, Wa’erji Township, and Laga Town in Maqen County, Golog Prefecture. The high-risk areas for grassland lightning hazards were mainly located in the western and southern parts of Yushu Prefecture, and the southern and central eastern parts of Golog Prefecture. Forest lightning risks were concentrated in the southeastern part of Yushu Prefecture and the southern and northeastern parts of Golog Prefecture. The analysis showed a negative correlation between lightning disasters and altitude, while terrain undulation and slope were positively correlated with these events. By assessing the risk of lightning disasters in the grasslands and forests of Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture within the “Three River Source” region, a solid foundation is established for effective lightning disaster prevention.

Key words: “Three River Source” region, Yushu Prefecture and Golog Prefecture, grassland and forest, thunder and lightning, hazard

XIE Jie, DAI Qingcuo, MA Yufang, SUN Furong, LI Zixuan, LI Qianying. Assessment of lightning hazard in grasslands and forests in “Three River Source” region based on spatial grids[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1713-1723.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Determination of subjective weight by analytic hierarchy process"

步骤	具体内容
建立递阶层次结构	构造雷电灾害危险性目标层级，具体如图1所示，利用闪电数据、雷电灾害数据和森林草原数据，构建影响因子指标，从而确定雷电灾害危险性评价指标体系。
比较构造判别矩阵（A）	采用1~9标度方法，对各层指标的两两元素进行相对重要性程度进行量化，构造两者比较判断矩阵A。
权重计算（W）	比较判断矩阵A的特征根问题 $A W = λ m a x W$ 的解，经过归一化后为统一层次相应因子的重要性权重值。
一致性检验	一致性指标 $C I = λ m a x - n n - 1$ ，当平均随机性RI指标比率 $C R = C I R I$ 小于0.1时，则判断矩阵A的一致性为合理；若CR≥0.1时，则说明判断矩阵A不合理，需要重新进行检验。

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Fig. 6

Tab. 5

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空间相关性	灾害密度	地闪密度	地闪强度	权重
灾害密度	1.000	0.144	0.281	0.114
地闪密度	0.144	1.000	0.497	0.405
地闪强度	0.281	0.497	1.000	0.481

雷电灾害	等级划分	分位分级法
危险性指数	低	[0.12, 0.15）
	较低	[0.15, 0.19）
	中等	[0.19, 0.22）
	较高	[0.22, 0.26）
	高	[0.26, 0.66]

相关性	灾害密度	地闪密度	地闪强度	雷电危险性	草原雷电危险性	森林雷电危险性
海拔高度	-0.164	-0.594^**	-0.481^**	-0.618^**	-0.623^**	-0.080
地形起伏度	0.268^*	0.382^**	0.345^**	0.468^**	0.487^**	0.109
地形坡度	0.306^**	0.308^**	0.281^**	0.413^**	0.429^**	0.150

Assessment of lightning hazard in grasslands and forests in “Three River Source” region based on spatial grids

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