新疆洪水预报预警中融雪径流模型应用进展

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.153

Abstract

Abstract:

This study examines various flood disaster types in Xinjiang, China, encompassing extreme temperature fluctuations, snowstorms, and warm, humid conditions attributed to global climate change. This study focuses on the underexplored issue of snowmelt floods, addressing their escalating frequency, severity, and associated disaster risk in Xinjiang. Using VOSviewer software, this study analyzes the research keywords and collaboration networks among different authors investigating snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. In addition, it scrutinizes the research priorities of scholars at various stages. A comparative analysis of the characteristics and research status of diverse snowmelt runoff models is presented. The study advocates for future research in Xinjiang to delve into the physical mechanisms and snowmelt processes integral to snowmelt runoff models, aiming to enhance prediction and warning accuracy. An assessment of the technologies employed for predicting and warning snowmelt floods in Xinjiang is conducted, highlighting pertinent issues such as wind-blown snow, frozen ground surface snow, and rain-on-snow. Furthermore, the study recommends key technologies to augment the overall capability of flood simulation, prediction, warning, and response to abrupt floods. It also explores strategies for optimizing the use of flood resources. In conclusion, this study furnishes recommendations for refining the prediction and warning technology pertinent to snowmelt floods in Xinjiang.

Key words: snowmelt flood, snowmelt model, flood forecast, Xinjiang

YU Qiying, HU Caihong, BAI Yungang, LU Zhenlin, CAO Biao, LIU Fuyu, LIU Chengshuai. Application of snowmelt runoff model in flood forecasting and warning in Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 1951-1962.

Figures/Tables 5

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洪水类型	发生地区	洪水特征	典型洪水	损失情况
暴雨型洪水	伊犁河谷、塔里木河流域	来势凶猛、突发性强、陡涨陡落、年际变化大、携沙量大、破坏性大	1983年4月、 1989年7月、 2021年7月	民房倒塌，死亡3人；经济损失9×10⁶元；50辆勘探车辆、30000套设备被淹。
融雪型洪水	伊犁河谷、阿尔泰山、天山北坡玛纳斯河、塔里木河流域	变化缓慢、持续时间长、洪量大、洪峰低	2005年3月、 2011年5月、 2021年5月	11×10⁴人受灾，牲畜溺死3736头，农田被淹796 hm²；经济损失超10⁸元；房屋倒塌受损，洪水袭击致100余万人受灾；大量牲畜淹死。
混合型洪水	北疆奎屯市、塔城、天山、昆仑山、喀喇昆仑山	洪水迅猛、突发性强、洪水历时长^[13]，洪峰呈尖瘦，峰量巨大^[14]	1985年3月、 1987年7月、 2009年3月	死亡3人，冲毁农田57.73 hm²、渠道16 km、民房6154 m²；经济损失3×10⁷元；淹没尼勒克县冬小麦超过113.33 hm²。

Application of snowmelt runoff model in flood forecasting and warning in Xinjiang

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