我国人均水资源量分布的俱乐部趋同研究——基于扩展的马尔科夫链模型

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.24

Abstract

Abstract: Studying the phenomenon of "club convergence" behind the imbalance of regional water resources is of great theoretical and practical significance to the regulation and balanced allocation of water resources.This paper examines the "club convergence" of the distribution of interprovincial water resources in China in different time span,then analyzes its temporal characteristics using extended Markov chain model based on the per capita water resource data of 31 provinces (including municipalities directly under the central government,Autonomous Regions) in China from 2004 to 2015.The results show that there is an obvious phenomenon of "club convergence" for per capita water resources in China even after 5 years as the distribution was highly solidified in high and low areas, and the trend of "club convergence" began to grow in the direction of deterioration since 2008.Therefore,the coordination of regional water resources needs to be further strengthened.Finally,the paper classifies the regions according to the club type and transfer frequency of per capita water resources in each region during the period of investigation so as to provide support and reference for regional water resources regulation.

Key words: water resources, club convergence, Markov chain model, water resources regulation

CLC Number:

F062.1

ZHOU Di, ZHOU Feng-nian, ZHONG Shao-jun. “Club convergence” of per capita water resource distribution in China: Based on extended Markov chain model[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 867-873.

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“Club convergence” of per capita water resource distribution in China: Based on extended Markov chain model

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