陕西区域性气象干旱事件及变化特征

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以陕西省为例, 探讨了区域性气象干旱事件的识别和综合评估方法. 采用陕西省96个国家级气象站1961-2013年逐日降水量和平均气温资料, 计算了各站逐日综合气象干旱指数CI值, 在此基础上定义了区域性气象干旱事件, 并构建了以事件的极端强度、累积强度、累积面积、最大面积和持续时间5个指标的区域气象干旱事件综合评估模型, 确定了区域气象干旱事件综合强度等级划分标准. 历史干旱事件验证表明, 采用的建模方法和评估等级划分合理. 分析表明: 陕西区域性气象干旱事件的持续时间以10～20d为主, 最长可达218d. 区域性干旱事件主要出现在春夏季. 近53a区域干旱事件频次呈弱的增加趋势, 累积日数呈增多趋势, 但年际差异大, 阶段性特征显著. 20世纪90年代持续性干旱事件频繁, 强度强. 干旱事件地域分布特征显示关中为陕西干旱事件发生的高频、高强中心区域.

关键词: 陕西, 区域性气象干旱事件, 变化特征

Abstract: In this paper, the recognition and comprehensive evaluation method of regional meteorological drought events in Shaanxi Province, China were discussed. By using the data of the daily precipitation and mean temperature from 96 national meteorological stations in Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2013, this paper calculated the daily composite-drought index(CI)of each station, defined regional meteorological drought events, built an composite-evaluation model with 5 indicators including the extreme intensity, cumulative intensity, cumulative area, maximum area and duration, and determined the composite strength classification standard of the regional meteorological drought events. Historical drought events showed that the modeling method and classification standard were reasonable. The duration of regional meteorological drought events were mainly dominated by 10-20d, reaching a maximum of 218d. Regional drought events occurred mainly in spring and summer. The regional drought event frequency showed slow rising trend, and the cumulative days showed significantly increasing trend, with a big inter-annual difference and obvious stage characteristic in nearly 53a. The persistent meteorological drought events were happened frequently and strongly in 1990s, and Guanzhong was the central region of high frequency and strength meteorological drought events in Shaanxi Province. This index will provide a reference for the objective quantitative assessment drought events in other areas and it is also an important technical support for timely monitoring and early warning for the extreme drought events.

Key words: Shaanxi Province, regional meteorological drought event, characteristic

中图分类号:

P426.616

蔡新玲, 李茜, 方建刚 . 陕西区域性气象干旱事件及变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(2): 294-300.

CAI Xin-ling, LI Qian, FANG Jian-gang. Variation characteristics of regional meteorological drought events of Shaanxi Province[J]. , 2016, 39(2): 294-300.

参考文献

[1] KARL T R. Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States[J]. Climate Appl. Meteor, 1983, 22(8): 1356-1366.

[2] QIAN W H, SHAN X L, ZHU Y F. Ranking regional drought events in China for 1960-2009[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2011, 28(2): 310-321.

[3] 吴晶, 罗毅, 李佳, 等. CMIP5 模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(3): 499-508.[WU Jing, LUO Yi, LI Jia, et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 modes's simulation ability in the northwest arid areas of China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(3): 499-508.]

[4] 杨金虎, 江志红, 刘晓芸, 等. 近半个世纪中国西北干湿演变及持续性特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(1): 10-22.[YANG Jinhu, JIANG Zhihong, LIU Xiaoyun, et al. Influence research on spring vegetation of Eurasia to summer drought-wetness over the northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(1): 10-22.]

[5] 赵红岩, 王有恒, 王兴, 等. 1961-2008年中国西北东部旱涝异常分布及干旱变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 35(4): 552-558.[ZHAO Hongyan, WANG Youheng, WANG Xing, et al. Anomaly distribution of drought-flood and changing characteristics of arid over eastern northwest China during 1961-2008[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2012, 35(4): 552-558.]

[6] 段旭, 陶云, 郑建萌. 气象干旱时空表达方式的探讨[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(5): 1332-1338.[DUAN Xu, TAO Yun, ZHENG Jianmeng, et al. Discussion on the spatial-temporal express ways for meteorological drought[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31 (5): 1332-1338.]

[7] 王学锋. 区域动态气象干旱强度指数及其应用[J]. 气象科技, 2012, 40(4): 601-605.[WANG Xuefeng. Regonal dynamic index of meteorological drought intensity and its application[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2012, 40(4): 601-605.]

[8] 卫捷, 马柱国. Palmer 干旱指数、地表湿润指数与降水距平的比较[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58(9): 117-124.[WEI Jie, MA Zhuguo. Comparison of palmer drought severity index, percentage of precipitation anomaly and surface humid index[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(9): 117-124.]

[9] 杨世刚, 杨德保, 赵桂香, 等. 三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较[J]. 高原气象, 2011, 30(5): 1406-1414.[YANG Shigang, YANG Debao, ZHAO Guixiang, et al. Comparision of three drought indices in drought of Shanxi Province[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2011, 30(5): 1406-1414.]

[10] 赵海燕, 高歌, 张培群, 等. 综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性[J]. 应用气象学报, 2011, 22(6): 698-705.[ZHAO Haiyan, GAO Ge, ZHANG Peiqun, et al. The modification of meteorolgical drought composite index and its application in southwest China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2011, 22(6): 698-705.]

[11] ANDREADIS K M, CLARK E A, WOOD A W, et al. Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States[J]. J Hydrometeor, 2005, 6(6): 985-1001.

[12] REN F M, CUI D L, GONG Z Q, et al. An objective identification technique for regional extreme events[J]. J Climate, 2012, 25(20): 7015-7027.

[13] 李韵婕, 任福民, 李忆平. 1960-2010 年中国西南地区区域性气象干旱事件的特征分析[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(2): 266-276.[LI Yunjie, REN Fumin, LI Yiping, et al. A study of the characteristics of the southwestern China regional meteorological drought events during 1960-2010[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(2): 266-276.]

[14] 乔丽, 程恺, 吴林荣. 近30 a陕西省气象干旱灾害时空分布特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2012, 32(1): 253-256.[QIAO Li, CHENG Kai, WU Linnong, et al. Spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological drought disasters in Shaanxi province over past 30 years[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012, 32(1): 253-256.]

[15] 蔡新玲, 叶殿秀, 李茜, 等. 基于CI 指数的陕西干旱变化特征分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2013, 5(5): 1-6.[CAI Xinling, YE Dianxiu, LI Qian, et al. Analysis of temporal-spatial variation characteristics of drought in Shaanxi provice based on compound meteorological drought index[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2013, 5(5): 1-6.]

[16] 周丹, 张勃, 任培贵. 基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50 a 干旱特征分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(4): 677-688.[ZHOU Dan, ZHANG Bo, REN Peigui, et al. Analysis of drought characteristics of Shaanxi Province in recent 50 years based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2014, 29(4): 677-688.]

[17] 刘闻, 曹明明, 宋进喜, 等. 陕西年降水量变化特征及周期分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2013, 36(5): 865-874.[LIUWen, CAO Mingming, SONG Jinxi, et al. Spatio-temporal distribution and temporal periodicity of annual precipitation in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2013, 36(5): 865-874.]

[18] 程肖侠, 梁奇琛, 蔡新玲. 陕西省单站暴雨特征及评估方法[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(1): 66-73.[CHENG Xiaoxia, LIANG Qichen, CAI Xinling. Characteristic analyses and procedure evaluation of rainstorm in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(1): 66-73.]

[19] 李星敏, 杨文峰, 李红梅. 相对冷暖背景下两次干旱事件的比较[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2012, 30(1): 238-245.[LI Xingmin, YANG Wenfeng, LI Hongmei, et al. Comparison of two drought events on relatively warm and cold climate background[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2012, 30(1): 238-245.]

[20] 翟佑安. 中国气象灾害大典(陕西卷)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2005: 30-41.[ZHAI You'an. Records of meteorological disasters in China(Shaanxi)[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2005: 30-41.]