甘肃省县域乡村韧性时空演变特征及驱动机制研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.406

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从韧性视角评估乡村发展，对破解城乡二元结构，推进乡村全面振兴具有重要意义。以甘肃省86个县域为研究对象，基于“抵御能力-适应能力-重构能力”3个维度构建乡村韧性评价指标体系，运用空间自相关分析和地理探测器模型，揭示2010—2022年甘肃省县域乡村韧性的时空演变特征及驱动机制。结果表明：（1）甘肃省乡村韧性水平显著提升，空间分异特征明显，陇中、陇东地区乡村韧性水平较高，河西、甘南地区县域乡村韧性水平较低，较高韧性县域数量不断增加，低韧性县域数量持续减少。（2）乡村韧性存在空间正相关性，关联性逐渐趋弱，空间集聚程度呈下降趋势，高聚集区向陇中地区收缩，低聚集区集中于甘南藏族自治州、临夏回族自治州等县域。（3）农村社会服务水平、经济发展水平和农业生产水平对乡村韧性影响较大，农村产业结构对乡村韧性的解释力稳步提升，乡村韧性受经济发展机制、资源优化机制、产业转型机制、服务保障机制共同驱动。研究结果有助于为甘肃省实施乡村韧性发展提供科学参考。

关键词: 乡村韧性, 演变特征, 驱动机制, 地理探测器, 甘肃省

Abstract:

Evaluating rural development from a resilience perspective is significant for breaking the urban-rural dual structure and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization. This article takes 86 counties in Gansu Province as the research object and constructs a rural resilience evaluation index system based on three dimensions: “resilience, adaptability, and reconstruction capability”. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detector models, it reveals the spatiotemporal evolution of rural resilience and its driving mechanisms in counties of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022. The results indicated that (1) The resilience level of rural areas in Gansu Province has significantly improved, with obvious spatial differentiation characteristics. The resilience of rural areas in central and eastern Gansu is relatively high, while some counties in Hexi, Gannan, and Linxia have lower resilience. The number of high-resilience counties continues to increase, while the number of low-resilience counties continues to decrease. (2) There is a spatial positive correlation in rural resilience, and the correlation is gradually weakening. The degree of spatial agglomeration is declining, with high-agglomeration areas shrinking toward the central Gansu region and low-agglomeration areas concentrated in counties such as Gannan and Linxia. (3) The level of rural social services, economic development, and agricultural production has a significant impact on rural resilience. The explanatory power of rural industrial structure for rural resilience is steadily increasing, and rural resilience is driven by economic development, resource optimization, industrial transformation, and service guarantee mechanisms. This study’s results provide scientific reference for the implementation of rural resilience development in Gansu Province.

Key words: rural resilience, evolutionary characteristic, driving mechanism, geographic detector, Gansu Province

李骞国, 孙龙凯, 惠蕃艳, 朱宗斌. 甘肃省县域乡村韧性时空演变特征及驱动机制研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(2): 393-403.

LI Qianguo, SUN Longkai, HUI Fanyan, ZHU Zongbin. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristic and driving mechanism of rural resilience in counties of Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 393-403.

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目标层	准则层（权重）	指标层（权重）	指标计算	属性
乡村韧性	抵御能力（0.315）	地均农业产值/10⁴元·hm^-2（0.376）	农业产值/耕地面积	+
		农村人均耕地资源/hm²·人^-1（0.295）	耕地面积/乡村总人口	+
		粮食单产/kg·hm^-2（0.329）	粮食总产量/粮食播种面积	+
	适应能力（0.373）	农业生产结构/%（0.563）	经济作物面积/农作物播种面积	+
		粮食自给率/%（0.218）	粮食总产量/（常住人口×400 kg）	+
		农药化肥使用强度/t·hm^-2（0.219）	农药化肥使用量/农作物播种面积	-
	重构能力（0.312）	农业产值占比/%（0.413）	第二三产业产值/农村经济总收入	+
		乡村从业人员占比/%（0.354）	乡村从业人员/乡村总人口	+
		复种指数/%（0.233）	农作物播种面积/耕地面积	+

分维度	2010年	2016年	2022年
抵御能力	5.424	4.749	5.991
适应能力	4.251	4.384	4.614
重构能力	4.672	4.711	4.900

解释变量	具体指标	代码	变量解释
农村社会服务水平	每万人农村居民拥有医疗卫生机构床位数	X₁	反映农村社会服务水平
农村社会服务水平	农民合作社数	X₂	反映农村社会服务水平
农村经济发展水平	农村居民人均可支配收入	X₃	反映农村经济发展水平
农村经济发展水平	农村居民人均消费支出	X₄	反映农村经济发展水平
农业生产水平	农业机械总动力	X₅	反映农业生产水平
农村人力资源	乡村劳动力资源总数	X₆	反映农村人力资源状况
农村能源动力	农村用电总量	X₇	反映农村能源利用状况
农村产业结构	农业产值	X₈	反映农村生产能力
	林业产值	X₉
	牧业产值	X₁₀