2000—2021年天山北坡潜在蒸散发时空动态及其对土地利用变化的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.701

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来天山北坡地区社会经济迅速发展，绿洲面积快速扩张以及土地利用变化对当地紧缺的水资源提出了严峻的挑战。研究土地利用变化对潜在蒸散发（PET）的影响机制，对于反映区域水文过程以及科学管理水资源具有重要的科学意义和现实价值。基于2000—2021年天山北坡的PET和土地利用数据，运用Theil-Sen Median（Sen）趋势和Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验分析等方法，研究了天山北坡PET的时空分布特征以及土地利用变化对PET的影响。结果表明：（1）2000—2021年天山北坡地区年PET总体呈增长趋势，并呈现从天山山麓向北逐渐增大的空间变化格局。（2）仅考虑土地利用类型变化的影响，草地变为耕地区域的年PET上升趋势（平均速率为0.21 mm·a^-1）显著低于未利用地变为耕地区域的年PET下降趋势（平均速率为-1.11 mm·a^-1）。（3）相较于土地利用变化，气候变化对天山北坡年PET的影响更为突出，气候变化对年PET的影响分别比受草地转变为耕地和未利用地转变为耕地带来的影响高77.13%和46.26%。

关键词: 潜在蒸散发, 土地利用, 时空特征, 天山北坡

Abstract:

In recent years, rapid social and economic development, coupled with the swift expansion of oasis areas and changes in land use on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang, China, has posed significant challenges to the region’s already scarce water resources. It is of great scientific importance and has significant practical value to investigate the mechanisms by which land use change influences potential evapotranspiration (PET) to understand regional hydrological processes and effectively managing water resources. This study uses PET and land use data from 2000 to 2021 for the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains to examine the Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PET and the impact of land use change on PET through Theil-Sen Median (Sen) trend analysis and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test methods. The findings indicate that: (1) From 2000 to 2021, the annual PET on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains showed an overall increasing trend, with a spatial variation pattern of gradual increase from the foothills of Tianshan to the north. (2) Examining the impact of land use type changes alone, the upward trend in annual PET in areas where grassland has been converted to cultivated land (average rate: 0.21 mm·a^-1) was significantly lower than the downward trend in annual PET in areas in which unused land was converted to cultivated land (average rate: -1.11 mm·a^-1). (3) Climate change has a more significant impact on the annual PET of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains than land use change. The influence of climate change on annual PET is 77.13% and 46.26% higher than that caused by the conversion of grassland to cropland and unused land to cropland, respectively.

Key words: potential evapotranspiration, land use, spatiotemporal characteristics, northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

王春勇, 李超凡, 韩其飞. 2000—2021年天山北坡潜在蒸散发时空动态及其对土地利用变化的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(11): 1893-1902.

WANG Chunyong, LI Chaofan, HAN Qifei. Spatiotemporal dynamics of potential evapotranspiration and its response to land use change on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2021[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(11): 1893-1902.

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重分类土地利用类型	CLCD土地利用类型
耕地	耕地
林地	森林、灌木
草地	草地
水体	水体、雪/冰、湿地
未利用地	荒地
城市建设用地	不透水土壤

检验统计量（Z）	趋势类别	趋势特征
Z>2.58	4	极显著增加
1.96<Z≤2.58	3	显著增加
1.65<Z≤1.96	2	微显著增加
0<Z≤1.65	1	不显著增加
Z=0	0	无变化
-1.65≤Z<0	-1	不显著减少
-1.96≤Z<-1.65	-2	微显著减少
-2.58≤Z<-1.96	-3	显著减少
Z<-2.58	-4	极显著减少

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水体	未利用地	城市建设用地	总计
耕地	1370711.97	1804.41	163960.11	6441.21	5284.44	25919.01	1574121.15
林地	381.42	334094.58	114.93	15.57	0.36	11.70	334618.56
草地	620893.44	71612.10	5092289.28	15521.40	491057.91	47727.63	6339101.76
水体	4989.69	1665.90	9420.57	349142.40	57799.71	2760.39	425778.66
未利用地	242271.09	519.93	387853.11	82041.57	5465918.70	34508.52	6213112.92
城市建设用地	34.02	0.00	29.97	140.04	7.47	55868.04	56079.54
总计	2239281.63	409696.92	5653667.97	453302.19	6020068.59	166795.29	14942812.59

土地利用类型	年份	PET起始值	PET结束值	PET变化量
耕地	2000—2004	939.92	950.22	10.30
	2004—2008	951.18	978.71	27.53
	2008—2012	981.94	950.26	-31.68
	2012—2016	954.18	965.91	11.73
	2016—2021	967.11	992.19	25.08
草地	2000—2004	802.11	812.71	10.60
	2004—2008	815.10	838.72	23.62
	2008—2012	831.47	799.90	-31.57
	2012—2016	794.38	811.31	16.93
	2016—2021	807.27	828.13	20.86
未利用地	2000—2004	986.76	988.32	1.56
	2004—2008	987.14	1017.19	30.06
	2008—2012	1018.98	975.26	-43.71
	2012—2016	979.43	1005.21	25.78
	2016—2021	1000.87	1024.18	23.32

年份	草地变化为耕地		未利用地变化为耕地
年份	气候变化	土地利用类型变化	气候变化	土地利用类型变化
2000—2004	89.60	10.40	58.65	41.35
2004—2008	83.37	16.63	68.74	31.26
2008—2012	99.43	0.57	92.65	7.35
2012—2016	84.99	15.01	61.28	38.72
2016—2021	85.14	14.86	84.34	15.66
2000—2021	88.51	11.38	73.13	26.87