1981—2020年陕西省暖季不同历时强降水时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.131

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1981—2020年陕西省暖季（5—9月）95个国家气象观测站小时降水量资料，结合多种数理统计方法分析4个历时（1 h、3 h、6 h、12 h）强降水的时空变化。结果表明：（1）陕西省短历时强降水主要集中在7—8月，4个历时强降水高发区均位于陕南秦巴山区，稀发区位于关中平原中部和陕北长城沿线。（2）各历时降水极值的空间差异均较大，历时越短，极值分布的局地性越强。（3）近40 a，陕西省各历时强降水均呈增多增强趋势，尤以3 h强降水的增加最为显著。（4）各历时强降水的趋势变化在空间上表现为非均一性，陕北黄河沿线和陕南中南部强降水呈增多趋势，陕北南部和关中平原中部呈减少趋势，且历时越短，强降水呈增多趋势的范围越大。（5）强降水日变化南北不同，历时越短，强降水的日变化越明显，特别是陕北短历时强降水日变化最为突出，且在傍晚或夜间易发生强降水事件，其危害更大。

关键词: 短历时强降水, 变化趋势, 时空分布, 陕西省

Abstract:

This study analyzes the spatiotemporal changes in four durations of heavy precipitation (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h) for warm season (May-September) in Shaanxi Province, China during 1981—2020 based on 95 national meteorological observation stations and different statistical methods. The results show that: (1) The short duration heavy precipitation in Shaanxi mainly occurs during July-August. The regions with high frequency of heavy precipitation in four durations are located in the Qinling-Daba Mountains of southern Shaanxi, and with low frequency of that occur in the central Guanzhong Plain and the region along the Great Wall of northern Shaanxi. (2) The spatial differences of precipitation extremes in each duration are large, and the shorter duration with the stronger local distribution of the extreme precipitation. (3) In the past 40 years, the intensity and frequency of the each duration of heavy precipitation are increasing and enchancing, especially for the 3 h duration. (4) The spatial trends in each duration of heavy precipitation is non-uniformity with increased trends along the Yellow River in northern Shaanxi and south-central Shaanxi and decreased that in the south of northern Shaanxi and the central of Guanzhong Plain, and mostly, the shorter duration, the larger extent of increased trends. (5) The diurnal variation of heavy precipitation represent geographical differences in southern and northern Shaanxi. The shorter durations often accompany more obvious diurnal variation, especially for the northern Shaanxi, and the heavy precipitation usually occurs in the evening or at night, which would cause more serious disasters.

Key words: short duration heavy rainfall, change trend, spatial and temporal distribution, Shaanxi Province

蔡新玲, 蔡依晅, 叶殿秀, 李茜, 户元涛, 胡琳. 1981—2020年陕西省暖季不同历时强降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(1): 1-10.

CAI Xinling, CAI Yixuan, YE Dianxiu, LI Qian, HU Yuantao, HU Lin. Spatial and temporal variations of heavy precipitation with different durations during warm season in Shaanxi Province from 1981 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(1): 1-10.

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历时/h	5—9月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
1	0.936^*	-0.136	0.225	0.626^**	0.254	-0.049
3	1.020^*	-0.129	0.239	0.651^**	0.253	0.009
6	0.489^*	-0.017	0.089	0.288^*	0.123	0.010
12	0.406	-0.062	0.183	0.236	-0.016	0.072