内蒙古区县城市韧性评价与分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.537

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于经济、社会和生态多维视角，利用熵权法、综合指数法、全局Moran’s I指数，揭示2000—2019年内蒙古区县城市韧性的时空演变特征，并利用地理加权回归模型分析人类活动强度对区县城市韧性变化的影响。结果表明：（1）由于社会经济发展水平不断提高，2000—2019年内蒙古区县城市韧性水平持续增长。（2）内蒙古区县城市韧性水平空间分布差异明显，东部地区和中部地区县城市韧性水平明显高于其他盟市所在的区县。（3）人口密度、建设用地和夜间灯光数据等人类活动强度变化对内蒙古区县城市韧性水平变化具有显著影响。研究结果可为内蒙古区县的可持续发展提供参考，对丰富中国城市韧性领域研究具有重要实践和理论意义。

关键词: 区县尺度, 城市韧性, 人类活动强度, 内蒙古

Abstract:

In this study, based on the multidimensional perspective of economy, society, and ecology, the spatiotemporal change characteristics of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia, China, from 2000 to 2019 were investigated by using the entropy weight method, comprehensive index method, and global Moran’s I index. Furthermore, the geographical weighted regression model was used to investigate the influence of human activity intensity on the urban resilience of districts and counties. The results revealed that: (1) The level of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia increased from 2000 to 2019 because of the continuous improvement of the social economic development level. (2) The spatial distribution of the level of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia differed, and the level of urban resilience of districts and counties in the eastern and central regions was considerably higher than that of districts and counties in other leagues and cities. (3) The change in the human activity intensity of population density, construction land, and night-time light data significantly affected the change in the level of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia. This study provides a reference for the sustainable development of various districts and counties in Inner Mongolia and exhibits practical and theoretical significance for enriching research in urban resilience in China.

Key words: district-county scale, urban relisence, human activity intensity, Inner Mongolia

宁静, 朱冉, 张馨元, 陈凯. 内蒙古区县城市韧性评价与分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1217-1226.

NING Jing, ZHU Ran, ZHANG Xinyuan, CHEN Kai. Evaluation and analysis of urban resilience of districts and counties in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1217-1226.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	指标含义	权重
城市韧性	经济韧性	地方GDP/10⁴元	地方综合发展水平	0.05699
		第三产业GDP占地方GDP比重/%	产业发展结构	0.01570
		社会消费品零售总额/10⁴元	居民消费水平	0.06607
		粮食产量/t	农业发展水平（粮食作物）	0.06936
		肉类产量/t	牧业发展水平	0.06229
		油料产量/t	农业发展水平（经济作物）	0.08596
		规模以上工业总产值/10⁴元	工业发展水平	0.06758
		规模以上工业企业个数/个	第二产业发展规模	0.06243
	社会韧性	中小学学校数/所	义务教育保障情况	0.03449
		公路里程/km	交通基础	0.02377
		医疗卫生机构床位数/张	医疗保障情况	0.05029
		医疗卫生机构技术人员/人	医疗技术水平	0.04801
		在岗职工数/人	存在劳动关系的从业人员	0.05204
		公共财政支出/10⁴元	财政对社会的保障程度	0.03337
		公共财政收入/10⁴元	政府社会保障能力	0.03859
	生态韧性	造林面积/hm²	生态环境改善程度	0.05595
		生态系统服务价值/10⁸元	生态质量水平	0.05879
		植被净初级生产力（NPP）/g C·m^-2·a^-1	生态系统健康情况	0.06203
		归一化植被指数（NDVI）	植被覆盖水平	0.01094
		PM_2.5浓度/μg·m^-3	空气污染程度	0.01059
		绿色空间面积/km²	生态系统供给能力	0.03390

年份	全局Moran’s I指数	Z	P
2000	0.3201	5.3722	0.0000
2010	0.2325	3.9234	0.0001
2019	0.2587	4.2957	0.0000

年份	R²	Adjusted R²	AICc
2000	0.80	0.75	-379.22
2010	0.66	0.65	-311.52
2019	0.80	0.75	-320.99