基于多因子线性模型的蒙古高原荒漠化综合评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.502

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (8): 1700-1710.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.502 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025502

基于多因子线性模型的蒙古高原荒漠化综合评价

赵建蓉¹^,²(), 石红艳¹, 倪鸿赫¹, 杨文华¹, 刘东伟¹^,²()

¹ 内蒙古自治区林业科学研究院，内蒙古自治区沙地（沙漠）生态系统与生态工程重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010010
² 内蒙古大学生态与环境学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010021

收稿日期:2025-08-22 修回日期:2025-09-04 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-21
通讯作者: 刘东伟（1982-），男，博士，教授，主要从事沙尘模拟与预报等方面的研究. E-mail: liudw@imu.edu.cn
作者简介:赵建蓉（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事生态遥感等方面的研究. E-mail: 32315087@mail.imu.edu.cn
基金资助:
内蒙古自治区林业科学研究院开放课题(KF2024ZD01);内蒙古自治区重点研发与成果转化项目(2024KJHZ008)

Comprehensive evaluation of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau based on a multi-factor linear model

ZHAO Jianrong¹^,²(), SHI Hongyan¹, NI Honghe¹, YANG Wenhua¹, LIU Dongwei¹^,²()

¹ Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Desert Ecological System, Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China
² School of Ecology and Environment, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot 010021, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2025-08-22 Revised:2025-09-04 Published:2026-08-25 Online:2026-08-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

荒漠化是干旱和半干旱地区普遍存在的生态环境问题，蒙古高原作为典型干旱半干旱气候区的内陆高原，荒漠化问题突出，深刻影响区域生态安全与社会经济可持续发展。基于植被、气候、土壤和人类活动4个维度，选取归一化植被指数、净初级生产力、降水量、气温、土壤水分、土壤有机质和人口强度7个指标，采用三角模糊数理论和层次分析法确定指标权重，建立多因子线性评价模型，并结合地理信息技术对蒙古高原荒漠化进行综合评价。结果表明：（1）植被维度在综合评价中权重最高（50.74%），是荒漠化状态最直接的响应因子。气候维度次之（25.18%），主要体现为降水和气温对生态系统的驱动作用。土壤和人类活动维度权重分别为20.38%和3.72%。（2）蒙古高原轻度及以上荒漠化等级区主要分布在西南部，面积约占总面积的83.4%，其中重度、中度和轻度荒漠化等级区面积占比分别为41.9%、24.7%和16.8%，非荒漠化等级区主要分布在北部与东北部，占比为16.6%。（3） 2001—2005年蒙古高原荒漠化程度整体呈恶化趋势，2005—2020年呈改善趋势，2020—2023年略有恶化。（4）降水是影响蒙古高原荒漠化演变的最重要驱动因素，气温升高通过加剧蒸发和干旱进程间接促进荒漠化，人类活动在局部地区影响显著。（5）区域对比显示，自2001年以来中国内蒙古自治区荒漠化总体改善，而蒙古国呈加重趋势，差异与两国生态恢复政策和工程措施有关。

关键词: 蒙古高原, 荒漠化, 气候变化, 多因子线性模型, 时空过程

Abstract:

Desertification is a widespread ecological and environmental issue in arid and semiarid regions. As an inland plateau located within a typical arid and semiarid climatic zone, the Mongolian Plateau faces severe desertification challenges that profoundly impact regional ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development. Based on four dimensions—vegetation, climate, soil, and human activities—this study selected seven indicators: The normalized difference vegetation index, net primary productivity, precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, soil organic matter, and population density. The triangular fuzzy number theory and the analytical hierarchy process were employed to determine indicator weights and establish a multifactor linear evaluation model. Combined with GIS technology, this model was used to conduct a comprehensive assessment of desertification across the Mongolian Plateau. The results indicate that: (1) The vegetation dimension holds the highest weight in the comprehensive evaluation (50.74%), making it the most direct indicator of desertification status. The climate dimension ranks second (25.18%), primarily reflecting the influence of precipitation and temperature on ecosystem processes. The soil and human activity dimensions account for 20.38% and 3.72%, respectively. (2) Areas classified as experiencing light, moderate, or severe desertification are mainly concentrated in the southwestern Mongolian Plateau and collectively account for ~83.4% of the total area. Specifically, severe, moderate, and light desertification cover 41.9%, 24.7%, and 16.8% of the total area, respectively. Nondesertified areas are primarily distributed in the northern and northeastern regions, accounting for 16.6% of the total area. (3) Desertification on the Mongolian Plateau showed an overall worsening trend from 2001 to 2005, followed by a period of improvement from 2005 to 2020 and a slight deterioration from 2020 to 2023. (4) Precipitation is the most crucial driving factor influencing the evolution of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau. Rising temperatures indirectly promote desertification by intensifying evaporation and drought conditions, while human activities exert significant localized impacts. (5) Regional comparisons reveal that desertification in Inner Mongolia has generally improved since 2001, whereas Mongolia has experienced a worsening trend. These contrasting patterns are associated with differences in ecological restoration policies and engineering measures implemented in the two regions.

Key words: Mongolian Plateau, desertification, climate change, multi-factor linear model, spatiotemporal process

赵建蓉, 石红艳, 倪鸿赫, 杨文华, 刘东伟. 基于多因子线性模型的蒙古高原荒漠化综合评价[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(8): 1700-1710.

ZHAO Jianrong, SHI Hongyan, NI Honghe, YANG Wenhua, LIU Dongwei. Comprehensive evaluation of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau based on a multi-factor linear model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1700-1710.

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指标	来源	空间分辨率	时间分辨率	来源
气温/℃	CRUTS数据集	0.5°×0.5°	年均值	https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/
降水量/mm	TerraClimate数据集	1/24°	年总量	https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html
NDVI	Modis数据集	0.05°×0.05°	年均值	https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod13c1v061/
NPP/g C∙m^-2	Modis数据集	500 m	年均值	https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod17a3hgfv061/
土壤水分/mm	TerraClimate数据集	1/24°	年均值	https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html
土壤有机质/%	HWSD数据集	30″	固定值	https://gaez.fao.org/pages/hwsd
人口总数/人	LandScan数据集	30″	年度值	https://landscan.ornl.gov/

指标	NDVI	NPP	降水量	气温	土壤水分	土壤有机质	人口强度
NDVI	1	1	2	3	2	4	5
NPP	1	1	2	3	2	4	5
降水量	1/2	1/2	1	2	1	3	4
气温	1/3	1/3	1/2	1	1/2	3	4
土壤水分	1/2	1/2	1	2	1	3	4
土壤有机质	1/4	1/4	1/3	1/3	1/3	1	2
人口强度	1/5	1/5	1/4	1/4	1/4	1/2	1

指标	权重	分级范围	评分	指标	权重	分级范围	评分
NDVI	0.2537	<0.13	1	土壤水分	0.1494	<3.26	1
		0.13~0.21	3			3.26~11.95	3
		0.21~0.29	5			11.95~25.70	5
		0.29~0.40	7			25.70~42.36	7
		>0.40	9			>42.36	9
NPP	0.2537	<53.39	1	土壤有机质	0.0544	<0.92	1
		53.39~175.00	3			0.92~1.89	3
		175.00~302.55	5			1.89~2.90	5
		302.55~438.99	7			2.90~4.68	7
		>438.99	9			>4.68	9
降水量	0.1494	<131.97	1	人口强度	0.0372	<170	9
		131.97~238.75	3			170~969	7
		238.75~345.52	5			969~3444	5
		345.52~465.32	7			3444~9393	3
		>465.32	9			>9393	1
气温	0.1024	<-2.63	1
		-2.63~0.52	2
		0.52~3.75	6
		3.75~7.29	5
		>7.29	4

荒漠化等级	NDVI	NPP/g C∙m^-2	降水量/mm	气温/℃	土壤水分/mm	土壤有机质/%	人口强度
重度荒漠化	0.09	31.55	90.97	5.41	0.23	0.73	1.92
中度荒漠化	0.17	192.76	212.12	2.11	1.24	1.24	8.96
轻度荒漠化	0.25	293.73	309.97	2.01	5.13	1.89	14.58
非荒漠化	0.38	439.83	425.95	0.78	19.90	2.34	7.93

基于多因子线性模型的蒙古高原荒漠化综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau based on a multi-factor linear model

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