中国西北生态脆弱区农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.109

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

加快传统固态能源向清洁能源转型是生态脆弱区农村应对气候变化、强化环境治理和促进区域间可持续发展的必然选择，然而，在被动参与清洁能源改革政策时，中国西北生态脆弱区农户作为经济水平相对落后的群体，普遍存在现代清洁能源设备“改而未用”“基本不用”“低水平使用”的脆弱性现象。为此，采用能源转型的逆向思维，对陕西、甘肃、宁夏和青海地区13个县（区），包括180个村庄的2002户农户进行实地调研，建立“暴露度-敏感性-适应能力”模型综合评估农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性，并利用多元Logit回归模型从“经济-社会-家庭”3个层面分析脆弱性影响因素。结果表明：（1）中国西北生态脆弱区农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性处于低、中、高水平的占比分别为26.12%、46.55%、27.33%，且脆弱性空间异质性显著。（2）耕地面积、能源补贴政策、社会网络、年龄、生计类型、家庭规模等因素均显著影响脆弱性。（3）不同生态脆弱区脆弱性影响因素作用效果存在差异。为此，政府应基于不同生态脆弱区农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性特征，立足区域实际情况，实施差异化的能源补贴政策与推广模式等，以巩固清洁能源改革政策成果。

关键词: 农户, 清洁能源持续使用, 脆弱性, “暴露度-敏感性-适应能力”模型, 生态脆弱区, 中国西北

Abstract:

Accelerating the transition from traditional solid-fuel energy to clean energy is an inevitable choice for rural areas in ecologically fragile regions to cope with climate change, strengthen environmental governance, and promote interregional sustainable development. However, under passive participation in clean energy reform policies, rural households in ecologically fragile areas of northwest China, which generally have relatively low economic capacity, often exhibit vulnerability phenomena, whereby modern clean energy equipment is “modified but not used” “basically not used” or “used at a low level”. To address this issue, we adopted a reverse energy-transition perspective and conducted field research in 13 counties (districts), covering 2002 rural households across 180 villages in Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai regions of China, and established an “exposure-sensitivity-adaptability” model to comprehensively assess the vulnerability of rural households to clean energy use. In addition, a multiple Logit model was used to analyze the influencing factors of vulnerability across three levels: economy, society, and household. The results show that (1) The proportions of rural households in the ecologically fragile areas of northwest China with low, medium, and high vulnerability to clean energy use are 26.12%, 46.55%, and 27.33%, respectively, and there is significant spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability. (2) Factors such as cultivated land area, energy subsidy policies, social networks, age, livelihood type, and household size significantly influence vulnerability. (3) The effects of influencing factors vary across different ecologically fragile regions. Therefore, based on the vulnerability characteristics of clean energy use among rural households in different ecologically fragile areas, the government should implement differentiated, region-specific energy subsidy policies and promotion strategiesaccording to local conditions to consolidate the achievements of clean energy reform policies.

Key words: rural households, sustained use of clean energy, vulnerability, “exposure-sensitivity-adaptability” model, ecologically fragile areas, northwest China

李玲燕, 王萌萌, 夏浩鸣, 段蜜蜜. 中国西北生态脆弱区农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性及影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(1): 164-175.

LI Lingyan, WANG Mengmeng, XIA Haoming, DUAN Mimi. Vulnerability and influencing factors of clean energy use of rural households in ecologically fragile areas of northwest China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 164-175.

图/表 11

图1

表1

农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性评价指标体系"

维度	一级指标层	二级指标层	赋值	方向	权重
暴露度	供暖成本	供暖成本增幅（E₁）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	+	0.031
	能源易用性	能源获取便捷性（E₂）	“非常便捷”至“非常不便捷”依次赋值1~5	+	0.032
		设备维护易操作性（E₃）	“非常容易”至“非常不容易”依次赋值1~5	+	0.033
		设备操作便捷性（E₄）	“非常便捷”至“非常不便捷”依次赋值1~5	+	0.035
	自然环境	温湿指数（E₅）	60~65=1（很舒适）；56~60或65~70=2；50~56或70~75=3； 45~50或75~80=4；40~45或80~85=5；32~40或85~90=6； <32或>90=7（很不舒适）	+	0.082
	自然环境	植被覆盖率（E₆）	>60%=1；45%~60%=2；30%~45%=3；<30%=4	+	0.068
敏感性	认知水平	受教育程度（S₁）	大专及以上=1；高中或中专技校=2；中学=3；小学及以下=4	+	0.006
	认知水平	生计类型（S₂）	务工或个体经营=1；务农兼务工=2；务农=3；失业=4	+	0.019
	经济水平	家庭年总收入（S₃）	1×10⁵元以上=1；5×10⁴~1×10⁵元=2； 3×10⁴~5×10⁴元=3； 1×10⁴~3×10⁴元=4； 1×10⁴元以下=5	+	0.015
		家庭耕地面积（S₄）	>0.40 hm²=1；0.20~0.40 hm²=2；0.10~0.20 hm²=3； 0.03~0.10 hm²=4；<0.03 hm²=5	+	0.113
		房屋占地面积（S₅）	>240 m²=1；160~240 m²=2；80~160 m²=3；30~80 m²=4；<30 m²=5	+	0.007
	价格感知	设备价格接受度（S₆）	“非常接受”至“非常不接受”依次赋值1~5	+	0.029
	价格感知	设备维护费用接受度（S₇）	“非常接受”至“非常不接受”依次赋值1~5	+	0.042
	心理成本	传统能源改变难度（S₈）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	+	0.040
		能源转型感知损失度（S₉）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	+	0.032
		能源设备故障担忧（S₁₀）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	+	0.039
适应能力	生态价值	转型后室内烟尘量（A₁）	“非常大”至“非常小”依次赋值1~5	-	0.046
		转型后空气质量提升（A₂）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	-	0.062
		转型后村庄面貌改善（A₃）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	-	0.063
	个人规范	减少化石能源责任感（A₄）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	-	0.042
		环保责任感（A₅）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	-	0.050
		能源升级意识（A₆）	“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	-	0.047
	政策满意度	清洁能源推广满意度（A₇）	“非常不满意”至“非常满意”依次赋值1~5	-	0.021
		补贴政策满意度（A₈）	“非常不满意”至“非常满意”依次赋值1~5	-	0.022
		后续服务政策满意度（A₉）	“非常不满意”至“非常满意”依次赋值1~5	-	0.024

表1

表2

表3

图2

表4

图3

图4

表5

表6

图5

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维度	变量		赋值	样本均值
因变量	农户清洁能源使用的脆弱性（y）		低脆弱性=1；中脆弱性=2；高脆弱性=3	2.00
自变量	经济层面	家庭收入（x₁）	1×10⁴元以下=1；1×10⁴~3×10⁴元=2；3×10⁴~5×10⁴元=3；5×10⁴~1×10⁵元=4；1×10⁵元以上=5	2.60
	经济层面	耕地面积（x₂）	<0.03 hm²=1；0.03~0.10 hm²=2；0.10~0.20 hm²=3；0.20~0.40 hm²=4；>0.40 hm²=5	4.14
	社会层面	能源补贴政策（x₃）	“非常不满意”至“非常满意”依次赋值1~5	3.00
	社会层面	社会网络（x₄）	受邻居影响：“非常小”至“非常大”依次赋值1~5	3.97
	家庭层面	性别（x₅）	女=0；男=1	0.59
		年龄（x₆）	20岁以下=1；20岁~29岁=2；30~39岁=3；40~49岁=4；50~59岁=5；60岁以上=6	4.56
		生计类型（x₇）	务农或失业=1；务农兼打工=2；务工（包括个体经营）=3；企事业单位人员（包括村干部）=4；其他=5	1.74
		受教育程度（x₈）	小学及以下=1；初中毕业=2；高中/中专/职专毕业=3；大专及以上=4	1.39
		党员数量（x₉）	没有=0；有=1	0.13
		家庭规模（x₁₀）	家庭常住人口数量/人	3.60

聚类结果	脆弱性分布		脆弱性指数
聚类结果	农户数量/户	农户占比/%	取值范围	均值
低度脆弱性	522	26.12	-0.068~0.121	0.083
中度脆弱性	933	46.55	0.121~0.200	0.158
高度脆弱性	547	27.33	0.200~0.392	0.243

生态脆弱区	暴露度指数		敏感性指数		适应能力指数		脆弱性指数
生态脆弱区	指数	排序	指数	排序	指数	排序	指数	排序
黄土高原	0.142	1	0.133	2	0.125	1	0.149	3
沙漠	0.140	2	0.129	3	0.098	3	0.171	2
青藏高原	0.134	3	0.148	1	0.100	2	0.181	1

变量	总样本		黄土高原生态脆弱区		沙漠生态脆弱区		青藏高原生态脆弱区
变量	B	Exp(B)	B	Exp(B)	B	Exp(B)	B	Exp(B)
x₁	-0.074	0.929	-0.032	0.969	-0.188	0.829	-0.359^***	0.698
x₂	-0.822^***	0.440	-1.000^***	0.368	-0.841^***	0.431	-0.608^***	0.544
x₃	-0.359^***	0.698	-0.445^***	0.641	-0.003	0.997	-0.396^***	0.673
x₄	0.538^***	1.713	0.608^***	1.837	0.508^***	1.662	0.453^***	1.573
x₅	-0.074	0.929	-0.004	0.996	-0.176	0.839	-0.178	0.837
x₆	0.308^***	1.361	0.338^***	1.402	0.534^***	1.706	0.142^*	1.153
x₇	-0.179^***	0.836	-0.354^***	0.702	-0.206	0.814	-0.226^*	0.798
x₈	-0.119	0.888	-0.121	0.886	-0.333^*	0.717	-0.091	0.913
x₉	-0.115	0.891	-0.030	0.970	-0.187	0.829	-0.578	0.561
x₁₀	0.063^**	1.065	0.042	1.043	0.003	1.003	0.162^**	1.176

变量	更换自变量回归		缩小研究样本回归
变量	B	Exp(B)	B	Exp(B)
x₁	-0.163^***	0.850	-0.054	0.947
x₂	0.099	1.104	-0.673^***	0.510
x₃	-0.367^***	0.693	-0.276^***	0.759
x₄	0.515^***	1.674	0.421^***	1.523
x₅	-0.166^*	0.847	-0.065	0.937
x₆	0.261^***	1.298	0.267^***	1.306
x₇	-0.207^***	0.813	-0.187^**	0.829
x₈	-0.151^**	0.860	-0.084	0.919
x₉	-0.139	0.870	-0.025	0.975
x₁₀	0.050^*	1.051	0.110^*	1.116