近60 a新疆塔城地区不同相态降水时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.023

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2020年9个国家气象观测站逐日资料,采用气候统计学方法分析了塔城地区不同相态降水的时空分布及变化规律,探讨了降水相态的变化成因及其可能影响。结果表明：（1）近60 a塔城地区年平均降水日数88.1 d,其中降雨日数最多,降雪日数次之,雨夹雪日数最少;3种相态降水在空间上呈现地区西北部多、中东部少的分布格局。（2）从不同相态降水日数的月际分布来看,降雨主要出现在4—9月,降雪在11月—翌年3月较多,3—4月和10—11月期间3种相态降水共存。（3）近60 a塔城地区各站不同相态降水的变化趋势存在一定的差异,总体呈现降雨日数增加而降雪日数减少的变化趋势,且降雨量的增速高于降雪量增速,其结果导致雪雨比率以-0.33%·(10a)^-1的速率减小。（4）气温增暖是塔城地区降水相态向多雨化转变的主要原因,同时北极涛动指数（Arctic oscillation index,AO）、北大西洋涛动指数（North Atlantic oscillation index,NAO）以及北半球极涡指数对降水相态的变化也有一定的影响。

关键词: 不同相态降水, 时空变化, 大气环流, 新疆塔城地区

Abstract:

Precipitation types (rain, snow, and sleet) have significant impacts on the surface runoff and energy balance. In this work, based on the data taken daily from nine meteorological stations in Tacheng area of Xinjiang, China from 1961 to 2020, and using the least-squares method and methods of correlation analysis, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of different precipitation types and its influencing factors are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The annual mean number of precipitation days was 88.1 d in Tacheng; rain days were the most frequent, snow days were second most common, and sleet days were the least frequent. In terms of spatial distribution, the three precipitation types were the most frequent in the northwest region of Tacheng area and the least frequent in the middle and east of the region. Anomalies of annual rain days, snow days, and sleet days were consistent; for normal years the occurrence rate was 63.3%-70.0%. (2) Rainfall was most common from April to September, snowfall was more frequent from November to March of the following year, and precipitation of three types stated coexisted from March to April and from October to November. (3) In this 60 year period, the trends related to precipitation types were different in Tacheng area were seen to change. The number of rain days was seen to increase and the number of snow days was seen to decrease; the increase in rainfall was significantly greater than the decrease in snowfall. The total number of sleet days was seen to increase, though the level of change was insignificant. The rainfall ratio was increasing, while the snowfall and sleet ratios were decreasing. The snowfall/rainfall ratio decreased at a rate of -0.33%·(10a)^-1. (4) Temperature increases were seen to induce the change in precipitation types. The change of precipitation types was also related to other factors, such as an increase in the quantity of water vapor, changes in the Arctic oscillation index/North Atlantic oscillation index, and changes in the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex index. In the future, the temperatures will continue to increase in Tacheng area, the temperature increases will further impact the observed precipitation types, which will not only affect the distribution of snows, melting of ice and snow, and recharge type in river runoffs but will also increase the risk of snow-melt floods and/or mixed floods.

Key words: different precipitation types, temporal and spatial variation, atmospheric circulation, Tacheng area of Xinjiang

高婧,杨涛,李海燕,井立红,刘振新,曾华. 近60 a新疆塔城地区不同相态降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.

GAO Jing,YANG Tao,LI Haiyan,JING Lihong,LIU Zhenxin,ZENG Hua. Temporal and spatial variation of different precipitation types in Tacheng area of Xinjiang in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.

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站点	年降水		降雨		降雪		雨夹雪
站点	日数 /d·(10a)^-1	降水量 /mm·(10a)^-1	日数 /d·(10a)^-1	降水量 /mm·(10a)^-1	日数 /d·(10a)^-1	降水量 /mm·(10a)^-1	日数 /d·(10a)^-1	降水量 /mm·(10a)^-1
塔城	0.20	8.12	0.26	4.37	-0.48	1.52	0.42	2.23
裕民	0.11	13.70^*	0.69	7.67^*	-0.71	3.74^*	0.14	2.30
额敏	-1.17	5.29	0.11	6.77	-1.37^*	-1.56	0.08	0.07
托里	0.34	8.43	0.94	8.00	-0.42	1.99	-0.18	-1.56
和布克赛尔	0.37	6.80^*	0.35	5.09	0.18	1.56	-0.17	0.16
克拉玛依	0.74	5.74	0.12	4.93	0.83	1.33^*	-0.21	-0.52
炮台	-1.58	6.84^*	-0.24	6.01^*	-1.64^*	-0.17	0.29	1.01
乌苏	3.83^***	12.20^**	0.55	8.07^*	2.86^***	2.20^*	0.42	1.93
沙湾	0.73	9.62^*	0.71	6.95^*	-0.51	0.80	0.53	1.87
全区域	0.59	8.87^*	0.48	6.53^*	-0.14	1.30	0.21	1.04
地区西北部	-0.13	8.89	0.50	6.70	-0.75	1.42	0.12	0.76
地区南部	0.99	9.55^**	0.34	7.01^*	0.24	0.94	0.41^*	1.60
地区中东部	0.55	6.27^*	0.24	5.01^*	0.50	1.45^*	-0.19	-0.18

站点	降雨日数		降雪日数		雨夹雪日数
站点	最多/d	时间（年-月）	最多/d	时间（年-月）	最多/d	时间（年-月）
塔城	17	2020-05,1992-07	18	2020-12	11	2018-11
裕民	21	2016-07	16	2020-12	10	2011-11
额敏	17	2002-06,2013-07	16	2010-01	8	1990-03,1987、2004、2015-11
托里	22	2016-07	15	1984-11,1966、1976、2012-12	8	1994-11
和布克赛尔	22	2013-07	14	1984-11	4	1965-10,1981-04
克拉玛依	17	1961-07	18	1988-01	9	1989-12
炮台	16	1988-05	20	1977-12	7	2010-03
乌苏	16	1988-05	18	1966-12,2019-01	10	1989-12
沙湾	15	1988-05,1993-07	21	2006-12	8	2015-12

地理位置	降雨日数	降雨量	降雪日数	降雪量	雨夹雪日数	雨夹雪量	年降水日数	年降水量
经度	-0.82^**	-0.81^**	-0.72^*	-0.82^**	-0.93^***	-0.84^**	-0.88^**	-0.86^**
纬度	0.67^*	0.45	0.11	0.39	0.52	0.43	0.48	0.45
海拔高度	0.39	0.24	0.11	-0.12	0.00	-0.16	0.20	0.04

环流指数	NAO	AO	北半球极涡面积	北半球极涡强度	北半球极涡中心经向位置	北半球极涡中心纬向位置
降雨比率	0.27^*	0.28^*	-0.13	-0.18	0.10	0.21
雨夹雪比率	-0.12	-0.20	0.11	0.12	-0.05	-0.03
降雪比率	-0.27^*	-0.22	0.20	0.17	-0.18	-0.27^*
雪雨比率	-0.31^*	-0.30^*	0.17	0.19	-0.20	-0.24