城市化进程中技术创新对环境污染的影响研究——基于动态联立方程模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以2005-2015年省际面板数据，通过灰色关联度分析、联立方程及情景模拟等研究方法实证研究城市化、技术创新、环境污染的双向作用机制。结果表明：（1）灰色关联度分析显示，我国城市化与产业结构比例和研发经费投入强度存在较强的耦合性；环境污染物排放与GDP、人力资本存量存在较强的关联；对于科技创新水平，中部、西部是与物质资本存量及GDP存在较强关联度，东部是与城市化率、产业结构有较强的关联。（2）联立方程表明，城市化与科技创新有双向反馈作用，科技创新提高1个百分点，城市化提高2.07%，城市化提高1百分点，科技创新水平提高0.14%。西部省份城市化与科技创新出现非匹配，城市化对科技创新助推作用不明显。经济不发达区域物质资本存量对城市化的助推作用比经济发达区域作用更明显。特定区域的污染物而言，EKC曲线不一定成为必然。城市化率提高，环境污染物先增长后降低对特定污染物而言不一定存在，转折点高低与区域的经济发展水平并无必然联系。（3）情景分析的冲击模拟表明，提高研发投入强度对东部、中部污染物减排成效显著，对中部科技创新产出提升作用显著，对中部的城市化促进作用最明显。当前我国在技术创新同时更加关注绿色技术。针对区域发展实际，有针对性地实施差别化的城市化驱动路径。

关键词: 城市化, 技术创新, 环境污染, 联立方程, 情景模拟

Abstract: Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015, this paper studied the two-way mechanism of urbanization, technological innovation and environmental pollution of China with gray relational analysis,simultaneous equations and scenario simulation. The empirical results show as follows:(1)the grey relational analysis showed that there was a strong coupling effect between the urbanization ratio and industrial structure and the intensity of R&D expenditure. A strong correlation between the environmental pollutant emissions, GDP and human capital stock was found. For the technology innovation, there was a strong correlation with the material capital stock and GDP in the central and western regions of China, and with the urbanization ratio and industrial structure in the eastern areas.(2)The simultaneous equations showed that urbanization and technological innovation shared a two-way feedback in the eastern provinces which indicated that the technological innovation was increased by 1 percentage if the urbanization was increased by 2.07%, and the urbanization was increased by one percentage when the technology innovation level was increased by 0.14%. In the western provinces, urbanization and science and technology innovation did not share such relationship and the urbanization did not affect the technology innovation directly. The role of material capital stock in the economically underdeveloped areas was more obvious than that in the economically developed regions. For the pollutants in specific areas, the EKC curve was not necessarily applicable. The pattern did not necessarily exist that the pollutants get increased first and then decreased along the increase of the urbanization ratio. The turning point was not necessarily linked with the economic development level.(3)The impact simulation of the scenario analysis showd that the improvement of R&D investment intensity had significant effect on the pollutants emission reduction in eastern and central regions, and its effect on the promotion of science and technology innovation in central China was obvious, and also its effect on the urbanization in central China was most obvious. China should pay more attention on the green technology while stressing the technology innovation. According to the actual regional development, the differentiated urbanization strategy should be implemented.

Key words: urbanization, technological innovation, environmental pollution, simultaneous equations, scenario simulation

中图分类号:

郝汉舟, 吴则宇. 城市化进程中技术创新对环境污染的影响研究——基于动态联立方程模型[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(3): 592-600.

HAO Han-zhou, WU Ze-yu. Impact of technological innovation on environmental pollution in process of urbanization: Based on dynamic simultaneous equations model[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(3): 592-600.

参考文献

[1] BRENNER N. Theses on urbanization[J]. Public Culture, 2013, 25(169):85-114.
[2] TUROKI, MCGRANAHANG. Urbanization and economic growth:the arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia[J]. Environment and Urbanization, 2013, 25(2):465-482.
[3] 罗丽英, 魏真兰. 城镇化对生态环境的影响路径及其效应分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2015,(6):59-66.[LUO Liying, WEI Zhenlan. The influence path and effect analysis of urbanization on the ecological environment[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2015,(6):59-66.]
[4] CAVIGLIA-HARRIS J L, CHAMBERS D, KAHN J R. Taking the" U" out of Kuznets:A comprehensive analysis of the EKC and environmental degradation[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 68(4):1149-1159.
[5] DOGAN E, TURKEKUL B. CO₂ emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development:Testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 2016,23(2):1203.
[6] 王瑞鹏, 王朋岗. 城市化、产业结构调整与环境污染的动态关系——基于VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2013, (1):26-31.[WANG Ruipeng, WANG Penggang. The dynamic relationship between industrial structure, urbanization and environmental pollution:A empirical study based on VAR model[J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2013,(1):26-31.]
[7] MARTÍNEZ-ZARZOSO I, MARUOTTI A. The impact of urbanization on CO₂ emissions:Evidence from developing countries[J]. Ecological Economics, 2011, 70(7):1344-1353.
[8] 孙能浩. 城市化对环境污染的影响机制分析[D]. 天津:南开大学, 2015.[SUN Nenghao. Analysis of the mechanism of urbanization on environmental pollution[D]. Tianjin:Nankai University, 2015.]
[9] AUDRETSCH D B, FELDMAN M P. R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production[J]. The American Economic Review, 1996:630-640.
[10] 程开明. 城市化,技术创新与经济增长——基于创新中介效应的实证研究[J]. 统计研究, 2009, 26(5):40-46.[CHENG Kaiming. Urbanization, technology innovation and economic growth[J]. Statistical Research, 2009, 26(5):40-46.]
[11] 张艳辉."知识与城市经济增长"文献综述[J]. 城市问题, 2008,(1):73-76.[ZHANG Yanhui. A literature review of knowledge and urban economic growth[J]. Urban Problems, 2008,(1):73-76.
[12] TREFIL J S. A scientist in the city[M]. New York:Doubleday, 1994.
[13] 仇保兴. 中国城市交通发展展望[J]. 城市交通, 2007, 5(5):6-12.[QIU Baoxin. Outlook of urban transportation development in China[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2007, 5(5):6-12.]
[14] 王婧,方创琳. 中国城市群发育的新型驱动力研究[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(2):335-347.[WANG Jin, FANG Chuanglin. New-type driving forces of urban agglomerations development in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(2):335-347.]
[15] KRONENBERG T, FUSS S. A techno-economic explanation for the environmental Kuznets Curve[C]//ETH conference proceedings, 17th March. 2005.
[16] 董林. 城市可持续发展与水资源约束研究[D]. 南京:河海大学, 2006.[DONG Lin. City sustainable development and water resources constraints[D]. Nanjing:Hohai University, 2006.]
[17] YORK R, ROSA E A, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT:Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts[J]. Ecological economics, 2003, 46(3):351-365.
[18] HÜLSBECK M, PICKAVE E N. Regional knowledge production as determinant of high-technology entrepreneurship:Empirical evidence for Germany[J]. International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 2014, 10(1):121-138.
[19] 程开明. 城市化促进技术创新的机制及证据[J]. 科研管理, 2010, 31(2):26-34.[CHENG Kaiming. Theoretical mechanism and evidence of the technology innovation facilitated by the urbanization[J]. Science Research Management, 2010, 31(2):26-34.]
[20] 郭力, 陈浩. 我国城市化动力机制的阶段差异[J]. 城市问题, 2013,(1):16-19.[GUO Li, CHEN Hao. Phase differences of China's urbanization dynamic mechanism[J]. Urban Problems, 2013,(1):16-19.]
[21] 丁焕峰, 李佩仪. 中国区域污染与经济增长实证:基于面板数据联立方程[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 137(1):49-56.[DING Huanfeng, LI Peiyi. Regional pollution and regional economic growth:A simultaneous estimination based on panel data model[J]. China Population Resources & Environment, 2012, 137(1):49-56.]
[22] 穆怀中, 范洪敏. 城市化对环境质量的影响——基于27个国家面板数据的分析[J]. 城市问题, 2016,(9):73-79.[MU Huaizhong, FAN Hongmin. Influence of urbanization on the quality of environment:An analysis based on 27 national panel data[J]. Urban Problem, 2016,(9):73-79.]
[23] 聂飞, 刘海云. FDI、环境污染与经济增长的相关性研究——基于动态联立方程模型的实证检验[J]. 国际贸易问题, 2015, (2):72-83.[NIE Fei, LIU Haiyun. Correlation analysis of FDI, environmental pollution and economic growth:An empirical examination based on bynamic simultaneous equation model[J]. Journal of International Trade, 2015,(2):72-83.]
[24] 郝寿义, 范晓莉. 城市化水平、技术创新与城市经济增长——基于我国25个城市面板数据的实证研究[J]. 现代管理科学, 2012,(1):74-76.[HAO Shouyi, FAN Xiaoli. Urbanization, technological innovation and urban economic growth:An empirical study based on panel data from 25 cities in China[J]. Modern Management Science, 2012,(1):74-76.]
[25] 关伟,王宁. 沈阳经济区经济与环境耦合关联分析[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2014, 33(3):43-48.[GUAN Wei, WANG Nin. A correlative analysis of the economic and environmental coupling in Shenyang economic zone[J]. Areal Research & Development, 2014,33(3):43-48.]
[26] 马慧慧. EViews统计分析与应用[M]. 北京:电子工业出版社, 2016.[MA Huihui. EViews statistical analysis and application[M]. Beijing:Publishing House of Electronics Industry, 2016.]
[27] 李子奈,叶阿忠. 高级应用计量经济学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社, 2012.[LI Zinai,YE Azhong. Advanced applied econometrics[M]. Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2012.]