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干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (1): 159-168.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.261

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    

基于PLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市生态服务价值权衡协同探究

隋露1(),蒲春玲2(),刘志有1,柏鹏飞1,刘涛3   

  1. 1.新疆农业大学公共管理学院（法学院），新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
    2.新疆农业大学MPA教育中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
    3.清华大学地球系统科学系，北京 100084
  • 收稿日期:2022-06-02 修回日期:2022-07-20 出版日期:2023-01-25 发布日期:2023-02-21
  • 通讯作者: 蒲春玲（1961-），女，教授，主要从事土地资源可持续利用、区域经济研究. E-mail: puchunling@163.com
  • 作者简介:隋露（1997-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事景观生态学、土地资源可持续利用研究. E-mail: w1245887687@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2019SY011)

Trade-off synergy of ecosystem service value in Urumqi City based on PLUS model

SUI Lu1(),PU Chunling2(),LIU Zhiyou1,BAI Pengfei1,LIU Tao3   

  1. 1. Faculty of Public Administration (Faculty of Law), Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
    2. MPA Education Center, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
    3. Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • Received:2022-06-02 Revised:2022-07-20 Online:2023-01-25 Published:2023-02-21

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摘要：

土地利用/覆被变化将干扰生态系统的稳定供给能力，进而对生态系统服务和可持续发展构成威胁。以乌鲁木齐市为研究区，基于斑块生成土地利用模拟（Patch-generating land use simulation，PLUS）模型，模拟了2030年多情景下乌鲁木齐市的土地利用变化，并结合当量因子法、空间自相关分析等方法估算并预测了1990—2030年乌鲁木齐市生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem service value, ESV）及其权衡协同关系。结果表明：（1） 1990—2020年乌鲁木齐市土地利用呈现“两增四减”变化趋势。2030年在惯性发展情景下，除林地外其他地类皆遵循历史演变规律;在生态保护情境下，建设用地面积萎缩，生态用地大幅增加;在综合开发情境下，建设用地面积有所增加的同时生态用地面积也处于上升状态;在重点开发情景下，城市建设用地扩张最为剧烈，耕地面积退化严重。（2） 1990—2020年乌鲁木齐市ESV整体上呈现“V”型下降态势，共减少59.59×108元。2030年在生态保护情景下和综合开发情景下ESV处于增加趋势，在惯性发展情景和重点开发情景下ESV出现减少趋势。（3） 2030年4种发展情景下，乌鲁木齐市各项生态系统服务间以协同关系为主，“高-高”“低-低”协同聚集区与ESV高值、低值区域分布高度吻合，权衡关系零星分布于局部地区。研究结果可为乌鲁木齐市国土空间规划及生态安全格局构建提供科学参考。

关键词: 生态系统服务价值, PLUS模型, 多情景模拟, 权衡协同, 乌鲁木齐市

Abstract:

Land use/cover change will interfere with the stable supply capacity of ecosystems, which in turn poses a threat to ecosystem services and sustainable development. Taking Urumqi City of Xinjiang, China, as the study area, this study simulates land use changes in Urumqi City under multiple scenarios in 2030 based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and combines the equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation analysis to estimate and project the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its trade-off synergy for 1990—2030 in Urumqi City. The results are as follows: (1) Land use in Urumqi City shows a trend of “two increases and four decreases” from 1990 to 2020. In the integrated development scenario, the area of built-up land increases, while the area of ecological land is also on the rise; in the key development scenario, the expansion of urban built-up land is the most drastic, and the area of arable land is severely degraded. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the trend of ESV in Urumqi City has a “V” shape. In 2030, ESV increases under the ecological protection scenario and the comprehensive development scenario and decreases under the inertia development scenario and the key development scenario. (3) Under the four development scenarios in 2030, the synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in Urumqi City are primarily synergistic, with “high-high” and “low-low” synergistic aggregation areas coinciding highly with the distribution of high and low ESV values, and trade-off relationships sporadically distributed in local areas. These findings may serve as a basis for distributing ESVs in Urumqi City and can also provide scientific reference for the spatial planning of Urumqi City and the construction of ecological security patterns.

Key words: ecosystem service value, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, trade-off synergy, Urumqi City