河西走廊城镇化进程中的资源环境压力定量测评研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以甘肃河西走廊为研究对象，定义了由资源能源约束压力和生态环境压力共同构成的资源环境压力指数，并通过构建指标体系测度城市化水平和资源环境压力水平，利用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析二者之间的定量关系。结果显示：（1）2000-2015年河西走廊地区城镇化进程中的资源环境压力指数呈不断上升趋势。其中，2000-2005年上升趋势较为平缓；从2003年开始，资源环境压力指数的上升有所加快，尤其是2007年以后，该指数年均增长率达到4.4%，表现出资源环境压力逐年上升，资源环境恶化的速度在加快。根据估计的回归方程预测，河西走廊地区的资源环境压力指数将于2026年变为压力"很大"。（2）2000-2015年河西走廊地区的资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数变化趋势对比明显，其中资源能源消耗分指数增速较快，年均增长率达到5.9%，2012年计算的压力值已达到77.12，2013年突破80的分界点，进入压力"很大"的状态，而环境污染分指数变化不大，在28~33之间波动，压力状态为"小"。（3）从资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数的数据点分布来看，所有数据点都分布在对角线的上方，说明工业污染并不是造成该地区资源环境压力的最主要原因，河西走廊地区资源环境压力主要来自于资源能源消耗。因此，未来该区域城镇化过程中，应综合考虑区域自然资源、生态环境和城镇化协同发展，走自然资源"低耗高效型"，生态环境"低压强保型"之路。

关键词: 城镇化, 资源环境压力, 压力指数法, 河西走廊

Abstract: Taking the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province,a typical arid area in northwest China,as the research subject,this paper established the resource-environmental pressure index(REPI)and evaluation criteria for the regional urbanization development and resource-environmental pressure,on the basis of the pressure index(PI) of resource and environment. REPI is composed ofRECI(resource-environmental consumption index)and EPI (environmental pollution index). By using REPI,the urbanization development and resource-environmental pressure in the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2015 were evaluated and predicted,which can provide references for the collaborative development of economic society and resources environment. The results show as follows:(1)the eco-environmental pressure index(REPI)was increasing in the process of the urbanization of the Hexi Corridor from 2000 to 2015. From 2000 to 2002,the upward trend was gentler,but since 2003,REPI increased quickly,especially after 2006,the average growth rate of REPI per annum reached 4.4%,indicating that the resource-environmental pressure has been increasing and the rate of the deterioration of ecological environment was quickening. According to the prediction of the regression equation,on the current trends,the resource-environmental pressure in the Hexi corridor will become enormous in 2026.(2)The change trend of RECI and EPI was significantly different in the study area from 2000 to 2015. RECI increased rapidly and the average growth rate of RECI per annum reached 5.9%. The pressure value calculated in 2012 reached 77.12,and in 2013, it broke through the cut-off point of 80 and the pressure was enormous. However,EPI changed little and fluctuated between 28 and 33,namely,the pressure was small.(3)The distribution characteristics of the data points show that the resource-environmental pressure was mainly resulted from the consumption of resources and energy. The emissions of industrial pollutants was not the main reason causing the resource-environmental pressure in the region and were under control. The innovations are:predicting the resource-environmental pressure index in the Hexi Corridor by using regression model,and proposing that the future development in Hexi Corridor should take the comprehensively regional natural resources,ecological environments and coordinated development of urbanization into consideration,and natural resources should be in the low consumption and high efficiency,ecological environment should be in the low pressure and reinforced protection,economic development should be in the high efficiency and urban development should be in the balanced coordination.

Key words: urbanization, resource-environmental pressure, pressure index, the Hexi Corridor

中图分类号:

F291.1

唐志强. 河西走廊城镇化进程中的资源环境压力定量测评研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(4): 860-865.

TANG Zhi-qiang. Quantitative evaluation on resource-environmental pressure in the urbanization process of the Hexi Corridor[J]. , 2017, 40(4): 860-865.

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