哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境耦合过程与机理分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在一带一路背景下,探索哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境间的复杂关系具有重要的意义。通过运用熵技术支持下的变异系数法和多目标模糊隶属度函数分别对哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境进行综合测度,构建综合指数,基于改进的Tapio脱钩分析模型分析了城镇化与生态环境的动态耦合关系并用阈值分析法分析其静态耦合关系。结果表明：（1）哈萨克斯坦综合城镇化的高值主要分布于西部的石油开采区及中部与东北部的工业区,低值主要分布于以农业经济为特点的南部和北部的部分区域。（2）生态环境综合水平高值分布于以服务业为主导、生态环境保护响应度较高的努尔苏丹市和阿拉木图市,低值则主要分布在碳排放相对活跃的西部油气开采区。（3） 2000—2015年哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境的动态耦合关系主要为强解耦、弱解耦、强负解耦、衰退性解耦和扩张负解耦状态;总结归纳耦合机理发现,生态环境保护响应度、所处城镇化阶段、农业用水总量和国际外部经济环境是影响哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境耦合关系的主要驱动因素。

关键词: 生态环境, 综合城镇化, 耦合过程, 解耦模型, 哈萨克斯坦

Abstract:

With the rapid development of global industrialization and urbanization, more and more countries are emphasizing high quality urbanization development and environmental sustainability; however, few dynamic and static studies have conjointly synthetically analyzed the interaction relationship between regional urbanization and the ecological environment. Further, existing studies have rarely included the area from Kazakhstan to Central Asia in quantitative analyses. This paper uses an entropy variation coefficient method and multi-objective fuzzy membership functions to examine Kazakhstan to provide a comprehensive measure of urbanization and the ecological environment and to build a comprehensive index, based on the improved Tapio decoupling analysis model. The urbanization and ecological environment of the static and dynamic coupling relationship was then analyzed. The results indicate that the Kazakhstan urbanization space differentiation is largely influenced by industrial structures and population migration. The oil exploration area, with industry leading the regional urbanization level, is higher. The ecological environment space differentiation is influenced by both industrial structures and ecological environment protection. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. (1) High values of comprehensive urbanization in Kazakhstan are primarily concentrated in the oil exploitation areas in the west and the industrial areas in middle and northeast Kazakhstan, while low values are primarily concentrated in the southern and part of the northern regions, which are characterized by an agricultural economy. (2) High values of the ecological environment comprehensive level are distributed in Nuer Sultan and Almaty, which are dominated by the service industry and are highly responsive to ecological environment protection, while low values are primarily distributed in the western oil and gas exploitation area with relatively active carbon emissions. (3) The dynamic coupling relationship between urbanization and the ecological environment in Kazakhstan from 2000 to 2015 is primarily in the states of strong decoupling, weak decoupling, strong negative decoupling, declining decoupling, and expansion negative decoupling. Under the influence of industrial structures and the responsiveness of the ecological environment, the dynamic coupling relationship kept changing from 2000 to 2015. Summarizing the coupling mechanism, it is found that the response to ecological environmental protection, urbanization, the total amount of agricultural water, and the international external economic environment are the main driving factors affecting the coupling relationship between urbanization and the ecological environment in Kazakhstan. This paper has an important theoretical significance for high quality development and the sustainable development of urbanization in Kazakhstan. In addition, it has important practical significance for China in the context of making targeted investments in Belt and Road countries.

Key words: ecological-environment, comprehensive urbanization, coupling procedure, decoupling model, Kazakhstan

黄金川,娜英. 哈萨克斯坦城镇化与生态环境耦合过程与机理分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(4): 1141-1152.

HUANG Jinchuan,NA Ying. Coupling process and mechanism of urbanization and ecological environment in Kazakhstan[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 1141-1152.

图/表 10

图1

表1

表2

城镇化与生态环境指数解耦状态判别标准"

解耦类型	解耦状态	生态环境指数增长率	城镇化增长率	脱钩指数 ( $ε t k$ )
解耦	衰退解耦	-	-	$ε t k$ >1.2
	弱解耦	-	+	$ε t k$ <0.0
	强解耦	+	+	0.0< $ε t k$ <0.8
连接（耦合）	扩张耦合	+	+	0.8< $ε t k$ <1.2
连接（耦合）	衰退耦合	-	-	0.8< $ε t k$ <1.2
负解耦	扩张负解耦	+	+	$ε t k$ >1.2
	弱负解耦	+	-	$ε t k$ <0.0
	强负解耦	-	-	0.0< $ε t k$ <0.8

表2

图2

图3

图4

表3

表4

图5

图6

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目标层	准则层	指标层	单位	综合权重
综合城镇化	人口城镇化	城镇人口占比	%	0.09
	人口城镇化	二三产业从业人员占比	%	0.12
	经济城镇化	第二产业增加值占比	%	0.14
		人均GDP	USD	0.11
		第三产业增加值占比	%	0.06
		制造业增加值占GDP比重	%	0.11
	空间城镇化	城镇人口密度	人·km^-2	0.06
	空间城镇化	公路路网密度	km·km^-2	0.07
	社会城镇化	人均收入	USD	0.10
		万人拥有的在校大学生数	人·10⁴人^-1	0.07
		万人拥有的专业医生数	人·10⁴人^-1	0.07
生态环境	生态环境压力	用水总量	10⁶ m³	0.16
		人均工业废水排放量	kg·人^-1	0.12
		人均空气污染排放量	kg·人^-1	0.19
	生态环境状态	人均生态用地面积	km²·人^-1	0.08
	生态环境状态	人均可利用淡水资源量	m³·人^-1	0.11
	生态环境响应	生态环境保护投资费用	10⁶ KZT	0.10
		污染物的回收利用率	%	0.11
		污染物的解毒净化率	%	0.09
		单位GDP耗水量	m³·KZT^-1	0.04

区域	衰退解耦	弱解耦	强解耦	扩张耦合	衰退耦合	扩张负解耦	弱负解耦	强负解耦
阿克莫拉州	12.5	12.5	50.0	0.0	0.0	12.5	0.0	12.5
阿克托别州	11.8	5.9	47.1	0.0	0.0	11.8	0.0	23.5
阿拉木图州	15.8	21.1	31.6	10.5	0.0	15.8	5.3	0.0
阿特劳州	20.0	15.0	30.0	0.0	0.0	20.0	0.0	15.0
西哈萨克斯坦州	13.3	6.7	46.7	6.7	0.0	13.3	6.7	6.7
江布尔州	15.8	21.1	26.3	5.3	0.0	15.8	5.3	10.5
卡拉干达州	11.1	11.1	50.0	5.6	0.0	11.1	0.0	11.1
科斯塔奈州	0.0	21.4	50.0	14.3	0.0	0.0	7.1	7.1
克孜勒奥尔达州	5.9	23.5	35.3	0.0	5.9	5.9	5.9	17.6
曼格斯套州	0.0	25.0	31.3	0.0	6.3	0.0	6.3	31.3
南哈萨克斯坦州	6.7	13.3	53.3	6.7	0.0	6.7	6.7	6.7
巴甫洛达尔州	5.9	11.8	35.3	17.6	0.0	5.9	5.9	17.6
北哈萨克斯坦州	7.7	23.1	38.5	0.0	0.0	7.7	7.7	15.4
东哈萨克斯坦州	0.0	11.8	58.8	5.9	5.9	0.0	11.8	5.9
努尔苏丹市	11.8	0.0	52.9	0.0	0.0	11.8	0.0	23.5
阿拉木图市	11.8	11.8	41.2	0.0	0.0	11.8	0.0	23.5
哈萨克斯坦总体	11.4	17.0	48.9	5.2	1.3	11.4	4.8	16.6

类型	判断依据	基本特征
HH	UCI≥0.5, ECI≥0.5	重点发展区,城镇化与生态环境协调发展
HL	UCI≥0.5, ECI<0.5	优化发展区,生态环境抗压能力、资源本底和政府响应度相对薄弱
LH	UCI<0.5, ECI≥0.5	一般问题区,城镇化发展相对滞缓
LL	UCI<0.5, ECI<0.5	重点保护区,城镇化与生态环境均相对滞缓,资源环境承载力相对较弱