1990-2013年丝绸之路东段城市群自我发展能力的时空格局和变化分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 将区域自我发展能力（RSC）解构为产业能力、市场能力、空间能力和软实力四个维度，基于1990-2013年统计年鉴数据，对丝绸之路东段城市（地级市、自治州）1990-2013年的RSC进行测算，最后对区域RSC的时空分布、动态变化机制进行了规律总结与深入分析。研究表明：（1）丝绸之路东段城市群区域自我发展能力（RSC）整体偏低且发展不平衡。（2）过去23 a来，市场能力是制约该区域RSC水平的主要因子，但至2013年本区市场能力得到快速提升，各调控层维度之间的差距逐步缩小。（3）乌鲁木齐、兰州、西安属于高水平不协调发展区域，和田、武威、张掖等属于低水平协调发展区域。（4）西安市、兰州、乌鲁木齐3个省会（首府）城市存在财政收入支出不平衡、老龄化等问题；新疆南部地区、甘肃甘南州等地区存在城市化进程缓慢、居民生活水平与经济条件低下的问题，成为制约这些地区自我发展能力发展的主要因子。

关键词: 自我发展能力, 格局, 动态, 驱动机制, 丝绸之路

Abstract: Regional Self-development Capacity(RSC) refers to the regional competitive power which is comprehensively supported by sustainable factors from many aspects. Promoting the development of the Silk Road Economic Zone is of great significance for the whole world Chinese. For the sake of developing the radiation and driving effect of the Silk Road Economic,study on the status,constraints and spatio-temporal evolution of RSC in this area is very important and meaningful. In this paper,RSC is modeled by the combination of industrial capacity(IC),market capacity(MC),spatial capacity(SC) and soft power(SP). Based on the Statistical Yearbooks of the State and the relevant provinces(such as China Statistical Yearbook for regional economy,China City Statistical Yearbook and some Local statistical yearbook),RSCs of 31 prefecture-level cities in the city group of Silk eastern were firstly modeled and evaluated in 1990,1995,2000,2005 and 2013. The spatial patterns and temporal characteristics of RSCs were then presented and analyzed with the support of GIS tools. Finally the RCS's structural features,dynamic changes and driving forces were discussed deeply. The results show as follows:(1) the RSC of all the cities in eastern Silk Road was generally low and uneven;(2) the MC was a constraint factor for RSC in the city group,but over the past 23 years,MC had increased substantially and became the most valuable factor stimulating the increase of the RSCs;though SC and SP had also been greatly improved since 1990,their contributions to RSCs still became smaller;(3) Urumqi,Lanzhou and Xi'an belonged to high-level but uncoordinated development,Hotan,Wuwei and Zhangye City belonged to low-level but coordinated development;(4) fiscal revenue and expenditure contradiction,aging problem were the main issues in the capital city Xi'an,Lanzhou and Urumqi;in the southern region of Xinjiang,Gansu Gannan Prefecture and other regions,the main restricting factor of RSC was relevant to the urbanization,very lower financial self-sufficiency and economic conditions. Compared with the previous research of Silk Road economic development,this paper quantitatively but not qualitatively studied Regional Self-development Capacity with a certain indicators based on geographic space. These innovative can provide more detail and specific data support for the development of the city group of eastern Silk Road,and has great theoretical and practical value.

Key words: regional self-development capacity, distribution pattern, dynamic change, driving mechanism, Silk Road

中图分类号:

F291.1

戴昭鑫, 胡云锋, 任博, 张云芝. 1990-2013年丝绸之路东段城市群自我发展能力的时空格局和变化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(4): 909-917.

DAI Zhao-xin, HU Yun-feng, Renbo, ZHANG Yun-zhi. Spatial patterns and dynamic changes of eastern Silk Road city group regional self-development capacity from 1990 to 2013[J]. , 2016, 39(4): 909-917.

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