关键词: 碳排放, STIRPAT模型, 因素分析, 甘肃省

Abstract: This paper adopts the data about Gansu population, economic development and energy consumption then estimates total percapita carbon emission, carbon emission intensity and carbon emission of three major industries through the relevant method for the periods 1997-2008. In order to further analysis of the factors which affect carbon emission in Gansu Province, the STIRPAT extended model is fitted by ridge regression function. The conclusions indicate as follows:(1) The carbon emission and percapita carbon emission of energy consumption showed a trend of increasing year by year in Gansu Province from the 1997-2008. The carbon emission increased from1 767.114 ten thousand tons in 1997 to 4 341.64 ten thousand tons in 2008. The percapita carbon emission increased from 0.7 t/p in 1997 to 1.65 t/p in 2008. Carbon emission of coal consumption is the main factor, accounting for the energy ratio of carbon emissions over 70%;(2) Carbon emission intensity fluctuated from 1997 to 2001 and showed a trend of decline since 2001,overall,it decreased form 221.4 t/ten thousand Yuan in 1997 to 136.4 t/ten thousand Yuan in 2008;(3) The carbon emission of three major industries increased annually and dominated by the contribution of secondary industry;(4) Population growth and economic development had a greater impact on carbon emission, the growth of carbon emission is exacerbated by the improvement of living standards. After the above analysis, the paper presents some suggestion about development of lowcarbon economy of Gansu Province：(1) economy should change to lowcarbon structure regulated through adjusting the industrial structure and building lowcarbon industry system. (2) The government should optimize the energy structure and improve energy efficiency. In order to reduce the ratio of coal on energy consumption the reproducible energy should be developed vigorously. The using of fossil fuels as coal should be decreased utmost by promoting the development of diversified structure of energy. (3) To eliminate institutional obstacles, the government should boost production of lowcarbon business ideas and set up production of lowcarbon energy efficiency standards and systems. In addition, the government should explore sustained manners of supporting energy conservation actively in public finance and establish financial mechanisms of energy saving which fit in with market economy. (4) To promote lowcarbon life and build lowcarbon city, people should change lifestyle from traditionally highcarbon model to lowcarbon model and decrease emission of carbon dioxide at all aspects of daily life.

Key words: carbon emission, STIRPAT model, factors analysis, Gansu Province