关键词: 人口-经济, 不均衡, 分布特征, 塔里木河流域

Abstract: Imbalances is the most basic attribute for population and economy distribution, which affects the coordinated development of regional economy if the imbalances are too large. The paper chooses the Tarim River basin for the study, in which the economy is underdeveloped with in the southern Xinjiang. Using geographical relation rate, Pearson correlation coefficient, Gini coefficient and TWindex, the paper analyzes the time trend of populationeconomy’s imbalance. Using gravity model and spatial pattern of per capita GDP, the paper analyzes imbalanced spatial pattern of populationeconomy and identifies the specific areas of regional economic development. Finally, it proposes a reasonable policy to optimize distribution of population and economy. The results show as follows: (1) from the view of populationeconomy’smatching degree, to investigate issues of regional economic differences is more intuitive and easy to understand. Combining geographical relation rates and Pearson correlation coefficients can get matching indexes of populationeconomy,and combining Gini coefficients and TW indexes can get indexes of regional economic disparities. The indexes of populationeconomy have high correlation degrees with the indexes of populationeconomy, so combining the two indices can provide a new perspective and approach to study regional economic disparities in the future. Combining gravity model and spatial pattern of per capita GDP can clearly identify special areas which population does not match its economy in space, so combining the two to study regional economic disparities in the space is more convincing. (2) Since reforming and opening up of China, the matching degrees between population and economy have been gradually weakened which makes regional economic disparity continue to widen. To 2005, regional economic disparity was beyond the scope of the warning line. (3) In the space, at the beginning of reforming and opening up, population and economic centers of gravity showed a relative match in space. Then the economic center tended towards the northeast, while the population center changed very little in the southwest, which resulted in Hotan, Kashgar and Kizilsu Prefecture becoming the poor concentration zone and Korla City of Bayingolin Prefecture becoming the economic polarization centre. Depending on growth pole theory, economic polarization of the Tarim region is single and the increased system is imperfect, so in the future the new centers need to be cultivated. (4) In the new era, the state begin to implement the new Xinjiangsupporting policies, Xinjiang can seize this opportunity to focus on the following aspects to solve the problems of populationeconomy’s imbalance. First, to cultivate Kashi, Aksu City as new growth poles in southern Xinjiang. Second, to enhance the selfdevelopment abilities of the backward counties with funding some supports of the policies. Third, relying on technology, to change development approach of resourcesbased urbanization. Fourth, population and economic development must take into account the ecological carrying capacity in order to ensure sustainable regional development.

Key words: populationeconomy, imbalance, distribution characteristic, Tarim Basin