我国乡村旅游公共服务多元系统协同水平时空演化及其作用机制分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.190

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过建构五元系统耦合模型对2007—2018年我国30个省（区、市）乡村旅游公共信息服务、安全保障服务、交通便捷服务、惠民便民服务、公共行政服务协调度进行测算,运用动态演化模型考察了五元子系统运行结果状态及其线性速度演化过程,并通过定性比较法探索了五元系统耦合协调发展的作用机制。研究发现：（1）我国乡村旅游公共服务五元系统耦合协调度水平整体偏低,存在系统协调失衡问题。空间上呈现非均衡化态势,主要缘于东中西地区内及其交叉重叠产生的差异影响。（2）五元系统耦合度空间结构演化呈现多极化趋势,且耦合度线性演化速度趋势符合边际效用递减规律,具体热点区呈现快慢交替的周期性特征,温点区步入边际效应递增向递减过渡时期,冷点区则进入上升周期。（3）五元子系统整体改善明显,但各系统间仍存在较大差异,且各子系统主导因素也不尽相同,亦成为乡村旅游公共服务耦合度偏低的重要原因。（4）我国乡村旅游公共服务系统多元协调发展是五大系统共同作用的结果,信息服务是敏感因子,安全服务是非敏感因子,交通服务是基础因子,惠民服务是内部支撑力,行政服务是外部支撑力。

关键词: 乡村旅游, 旅游公共服务, 耦合, Bayesian层次时空模型

Abstract:

The degree of coordination of rural tourism public information services, security services, convenient transportation services, people-friendly services, and public administrative services in 30 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2007 to 2018 was measured using a five-element system coupling model, and the application dynamics were investigated. The evolution model examines the state of the five-element subsystem’s operating results and its linear velocity evolution process and explores the mechanism of the five-element system’s coupled and coordinated development through the qualitative comparison method. The study discovered that: (1) the overall level of coupling and coordination of the five-element system of rural tourism public services across the country is low, and there is a problem of system coordination imbalance. The unbalanced situation in space is mainly due to the different influences in the east, middle and west regions and their overlap. (2) The spatial structure evolution of the coupling degree of the five-element system exhibits a multi-polarization trend, and the linear evolution speed trend of the coupling degree is consistent with the law of diminishing marginal utility. The specific hotspot area presents the periodic characteristics of alternating fast and slow, and the temperature spot area enters the increasing direction of marginal effect. The cold spot area begins an upward cycle during the decreasing transition period. (3) Although there has been an overall improvement in the five-element subsystem, there are still significant differences between the systems, and the leading factors of each subsystem are also distinct, which has become an important reason for the low coupling of rural tourism public services. (4) The diversified and coordinated development of the national rural tourism public service system is the result of the joint action of the five major systems. Information services are sensitive factors, safety services are non-sensitive factors, transportation services are primary factors, people-benefiting services are internal support forces, and administrative services are external support forces.

Key words: rural tourism, tourism public service, coupling, Bayesian hierarchy spatio-temporal model

张新成,高楠,王琳艳. 我国乡村旅游公共服务多元系统协同水平时空演化及其作用机制分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 298-309.

ZHANG Xincheng,GAO Nan,WANG Linyan. Spatiotemporal evolution and function of the coordination level of the multi-system of rural tourism public service in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 298-309.

图/表 7

表1

评价指标体系"

子系统	维度指标	具体指标（指标属性/指标释义/权重）
旅游公共信息服务系统	线下服务	乡村旅游咨询站点^[1]覆盖率（+/乡村文化站数与乡村建成区面积比重/0.595）
旅游公共信息服务系统	在线服务	开通互联网宽带业务的行政村比重（+/开通互联网宽带业务村数与村庄总数之比/0.182）;乡村每千人固定电话数（+/乡村拥有固定电话人数与乡村总人口之比×1000/0.223）
旅游安全保障服务系统	灾害监测	乡村环境监测覆盖率（+/灾害防治项目数和环境气象观测站加总占乡村土地面积比重/0.272）;乡村安全隐患变化率（-/地质灾害发生数、森林火灾发生次数、突发环境事件次数三项指标本期数之和与上期数之和占比/0.009）
旅游安全保障服务系统	应急救援	乡村人均拥有医师比（+/乡村医生和卫生员数与乡村户籍人口之比/0.194）;乡村卫生室覆盖率（+/乡村卫生室数与乡村建成区面积之比/0.223）;乡村人均医疗卫生床位数（+/乡村医疗卫生机构床位数与乡村户籍人口之比/0.302）
旅游交通便捷服务系统	村内交通	乡村人均道路面积（+/乡村建成区道路面积与乡村户籍人口之比/0.174）;乡村桥梁分布密度（+/乡村桥梁座数与乡村建成区面积之比/0.059）;乡村新增道路占比（+/乡村年新增道路长度占乡村道路长度比重/0.174）;乡村道路照明覆盖率（+/乡村道路照明灯盏数与乡村建成区面积之比/0.121）
旅游交通便捷服务系统	可进入性	旅客周转量增速（+/环比增长速度测算/0.271）;乡村交通运输仓储业从业人员比例（+/乡村交通运输仓储业从业人员与乡村户籍人口之比/0.201）
旅游惠民便民服务系统	惠民工程	乡村公共建筑投入比例（+/乡村公共建筑投入占乡村建设投入比重/0.028）;乡村供水普及率（+/乡村用水人口与乡村人口之比/0.033）;乡村污水处理率（+/乡村污水处理总量与排放总量之比/0.125）;乡村绿化覆盖率（+/乡村绿化覆盖面积与建成区面积之比/0.118）;乡村环境卫生投入占比（+/乡村环境卫生投入占乡村公用设施投入比重/0.048）;乡村公共厕所数覆盖率（+/乡村公共厕所占乡村建成区面积比重/0.152）;乡村生活垃圾中转站覆盖率（+/乡村生活垃圾中转站占乡村建成区面积比重/0.154）
旅游惠民便民服务系统	便民服务	乡镇住宿及餐饮业从业人员比例（+/乡镇住宿及餐饮从业人员与乡村户籍人口之比/0.158）;乡镇住宿及餐饮业单位覆盖率（+/乡镇住宿及餐饮业单位占乡村建成区面积比重/0.144）;乡村文艺活动增长率（+/0.023）;乡村举办文化展览次数增长率（+/0.017）
旅游公共行政服务系统	人力资源	乡村建设管理人员比例（+/乡村建设管理人员与乡村户籍人口之比/0.349）;乡村教育水平（+/乡村大专及以上受教育人口与乡村户籍人口之比/0.403）
旅游公共行政服务系统	政策扶持	乡村市政公用设施投入额增长率（+/环比增长率测算/0.067）;乡村服务业固定资产投资（+/乡村居民服务和其他服务业投资之和占乡村固定资产比重/0.181）

表1

图1

图2

表2

图3

图4

图5

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年份	总体差异（G）	地区间差异（G_nb）			地区内差异（G_w）			成分分解			贡献率/%
年份	总体差异（G）	（2-1）	（3-1）	（3-2）	1	2	3	G_w	G_nb	G_t	G_w	G_nb	G_t
2007—2010	0.192	0.158	0.259	0.237	0.182	0.105	0.217	0.057	0.073	0.062	29.69	38.02	32.29
2011—2014	0.198	0.136	0.232	0.187	0.110	0.103	0.211	0.064	0.057	0.077	32.32	28.79	38.89
2015—2018	0.181	0.149	0.227	0.166	0.173	0.112	0.176	0.057	0.045	0.079	31.49	24.86	43.65