蒙古高原生态干旱监测及时空变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.489

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球气候变暖加剧的背景下，蒙古高原作为生态脆弱区面临日益严峻的干旱威胁。为量化干旱对生态系统的影响，基于气象与遥感数据计算标准化生态缺水指数（SEWDI），系统评估其在蒙古高原生态干旱监测中的适用性，揭示1982—2022年蒙古高原生态干旱的时空演变规律，并利用游程理论提取生态干旱特征。结果表明：（1） SEWDI在时空尺度上与植被指标的相关性优于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、标准化降水指数（SPI）和自校正帕尔默干旱严重度指数（ScPDSI），表现出更强的生态干旱表征能力。（2）近40 a来，蒙古高原生态干旱以-0.0168·a^-1呈显著加剧趋势，空间上干旱化趋势集中于北部，蒙古国干旱程度整体高于中国内蒙古自治区；季节上，夏季干旱加剧最为明显，春秋次之，冬季则略有缓解。（3）游程理论分析表明，蒙古高原生态干旱烈度北高南低，历时北长南短，频率北低南高，强度则西北低东南高。SEWDI通过整合植被需水与耗水动态，显著提升了生态干旱监测的敏感性与准确性，可为区域差异化抗旱与生态管理策略提供科学依据与技术支撑。

关键词: 生态干旱, 干旱演变, 游程理论, 蒙古高原

Abstract:

The Mongolian Plateau is an ecologically vulnerable region that is susceptible to increasingly severe drought threats due to intensifying global warming. To quantify the impact of drought on ecosystems, the standardized ecological water deficit index (SEWDI) was calculated based on meteorological and remote sensing data. This study systematically evaluated the application of the SEWDI in monitoring ecological drought on the Mongolian Plateau. It revealed the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of ecological drought from 1982 to 2022 and extracted ecological drought characteristics using run theory. The results of the study indicate that: (1) SEWDI demonstrates stronger correlations with vegetation indices across temporal and spatial dimensions than traditional drought indices, including the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, the standardized precipitation index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index. These findings suggest that SEWDI exhibits superior capability in characterizing ecological drought. (2) Over the past 40 years, ecological drought has intensified significantly at a rate of -0.0168·a^-1. The drying trend has been primarily concentrated in the northern regions, and the conditions have been more severe in Mongolia than in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The severity of drought conditions exhibited seasonal patterns, with the most pronounced exacerbation occurring during the summer months, followed by a notable intensification in spring and autumn. Conversely, a marginal alleviation was observed during the winter season. (3) The ecological drought severity in the Mongolian Plateau is higher in the northern regions and lower in the southern regions. Furthermore, the duration of drought is prolonged in the northern regions and is comparatively reduced in the southern regions. The frequency is lower in the north and higher in the south, whereas the intensity is lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast. SEWDI has been shown to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of ecological drought monitoring by integrating vegetation water demand and consumption dynamics. This integration provides a scientific basis for region-specific drought resistance and ecological management strategies.

Key words: ecological drought, drought evolution, run theory, Mongolian Plateau

温明君, 武志涛, 杜自强, 梁寒雪, 陈鑫, 雷添杰. 蒙古高原生态干旱监测及时空变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1311-1322.

WEN Mingjun, WU Zhitao, DU Ziqiang, LIANG Hanxue, CHEN Xin, LEI Tianjie. Ecological drought monitoring and spatiotemporal changes in the Mongolian Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1311-1322.

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标准化生态缺水指数（SEWDI）	干旱程度
SEWDI>-0.5	无旱
-1.0<SEWDI≤-0.5	轻旱
-1.5<SEWDI≤-1.0	中旱
-2.0<SEWDI≤-1.5	重旱
SEWDI≤-2.0	特旱

指数验证组合	极显著正相关	显著正相关	极显著负相关	显著负相关
SEWDI-NDVI	57.45	38.73	1.25	2.57
SPEI-NDVI	3.56	10.11	23.38	62.95
SPI-NDVI	42.40	42.20	6.05	9.35
ScPDSI-NDVI	27.95	53.59	8.07	10.39
SEWDI-LAI	59.41	29.55	6.75	4.29
SPEI-LAI	1.97	7.05	26.86	64.12
SPI-LAI	21.11	38.29	25.74	14.86
ScPDSI-LAI	25.11	40.39	19.66	14.84

空间变化趋势	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
显著干旱化	36.35	21.55	29.94	32.70	1.60
不显著干旱化	37.42	35.75	54.72	41.05	32.60
不显著湿润化	23.05	34.82	14.51	23.01	49.66
显著湿润化	3.18	7.88	0.83	3.24	16.14