陇中地区干旱特征及其与降水量和潜在蒸散发的关系

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.683

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

陇中地区作为黄河上游生态安全关键区，水资源匮乏与干旱频发长期制约区域发展，揭示气候因子与干旱风险的耦合机制，对支撑精准抗旱、水资源配置及水利工程科学运行具有现实意义。基于1980—2023年降水量数据、潜在蒸散发（PET）数据，运用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、气候倾向率、空间插值等方法，系统分析干旱时空演变特征及其与降水量、潜在蒸散发的耦合关系。结果表明：（1）陇中地区干旱演变历经1980—1990、1991—2010、2011—2023年3个阶段，对应干旱频率分别为29.55%、42.49%、23.72%。（2） 1991—2023年春夏季中度及以上等级干旱频率达19.23%及以上，对农业关键期影响重大；其中定西市春季PET呈极显著上升趋势（P<0.01），干旱态势加剧。（3）厄尔尼诺事件会放大干旱风险，其发生年份的中度及以上等级干旱频率较非厄尔尼诺年份高出5.21个百分点。研究揭示了陇中地区气候因子与干旱风险的分异规律，可为区域分域抗旱、农业种植结构优化及水利工程调度提供科学支撑。

关键词: 干旱, 时空特征, 降水, 潜在蒸散发, 陇中地区

Abstract:

The Longzhong region, a critical zone for ecological security within the upper reaches of the Yellow River, has historically been confronted with water scarcity and recurrent droughts, impeding its development. The elucidation of the mechanisms through which climatic factors and drought risk are associated is of practical significance for the support of targeted drought mitigation, the optimization of water resource allocation, and the improvement of the operation of water conservancy projects. This study utilized precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 1980 to 2023 to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and its coupled relationship with precipitation and PET. This analysis was conducted by applying methods such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), climate tendency rate, and spatial interpolation. The results indicate that: (1) The drought evolution in the Longzhong region is characterized by three distinguishable stages. From 1980 to 1990, the frequency of droughts was 29.55%, from 1991 to 2010, it was 42.49%, and from 2011 to 2023, it was 23.72%. (2) From 1991 to 2023, the frequency of moderate-to-severe droughts during the spring and summer months reached 19.23% or higher, posing a significant threat to key agricultural periods. A notable finding was the highly significant increasing trend (P<0.01) exhibited by spring PET in Dingxi City, which served to exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions. (3) El Niño events increase the risk of drought, with the frequency of moderate-to-severe droughts rising 5.21 percentage points in El Niño years compared to non-El Niño years. The present study discloses the differential patterns between climatic factors and drought risk in the Longzhong region, thereby providing a scientific basis for regional drought mitigation strategies, optimization of agricultural planting structures, and informed scheduling of water conservancy projects.

Key words: drought, spatiotemporal characteristics, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, Longzhong region

杨昊凡, 黄维东, 牛最荣. 陇中地区干旱特征及其与降水量和潜在蒸散发的关系[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(7): 1336-1346.

YANG Haofan, HUANG Weidong, NIU Zuirong. Drought characteristics and their relationship with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the Longzhong region[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1336-1346.

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站点	面积权重	海拔/m	站点	面积权重	海拔/m
兰州气象站	0.0119	1534	会川站	0.0204	2253
红崖子站	0.0316	1668	临洮站	0.0137	1877
七道梁站	0.0138	2280	红旗站	0.0067	1780
皋兰气象站	0.0302	1672	漳县气象站	0.0355	1884
崖渠川站	0.0187	1827	岷县站	0.0315	2611
榆中气象站	0.0049	2160	酒店子站	0.0228	2702
夏官营站	0.0156	1703	申都站	0.0148	2585
吕家岘站	0.0303	2392	闾井站	0.0212	2618
黄石坪站	0.0098	2469	白银气象站	0.0317	1725
石骨岔站	0.0075	2539	水泉站	0.0216	1623
永登气象站	0.0293	2121	打拉池站	0.0387	1761
武胜驿站	0.0070	2488	兴水站	0.0160	1822
石并掌站	0.0091	2740	白茨水站	0.0183	1930
连城站	0.0161	1936	万家台站	0.0304	1431
牌楼站	0.0228	2255	喜集水站	0.0419	1769
古城站	0.0062	2800	论古站	0.0215	1854
红土站	0.0230	1977	靖远站	0.0220	1411
内官营站	0.0127	2029	刘川站	0.0214	1640
巉口站	0.0142	1881	郭城驿站	0.0251	1532
葛家岔站	0.0195	2176	甘沟驿站	0.0208	1625
青岗站	0.0218	2344	草滩站	0.0333	2132
何家坡站	0.0446	2133	会宁站	0.0175	1730
渭源站	0.0223	2092	太平店站	0.0136	2046
峡口站	0.0149	2194	党家岘站	0.0220	2174

站点	面积权重	海拔/m	站点	面积权重	海拔/m
兰州气象站	0.1245	1534	岷县站	0.0904	2611
武胜驿站	0.0803	2488	白银气象站	0.1445	1725
连城站	0.0439	1936	论古站	0.1478	1854
红土站	0.1069	1977	会宁站	0.1460	1730
渭源站	0.1156	2092

区域	季节	降水量倾向率/mm·a^-1	PET倾向率/mm·a^-1	差值/mm·a^-1	SPEI倾向率/a^-1	区域	季节	降水量倾向率/mm·a^-1	PET倾向率/mm·a^-1	差值/mm·a^-1	SPEI倾向率/a^-1
兰州市	春季	-0.02	0.22	-0.24	-0.01	定西市	春季	-0.25	0.37^**	-0.62	-0.02
	夏季	-0.18	0.12	-0.30	-0.01		夏季	-0.14	0.26	-0.40	-0.01
	秋季	0.59	-0.05	0.64	0.02		秋季	0.54	-0.03	0.57	0.01
	冬季	0.06	-0.02	0.08	0.01		冬季	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00
	全年	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.00		全年	0.04	0.48	-0.44	-0.01
白银市	春季	-0.11	0.21	-0.32	-0.01	陇中地区	春季	-0.13	0.26	-0.39	-0.01
	夏季	-0.33	0.13	-0.46	-0.01		夏季	-0.22	0.17	-0.39	-0.01
	秋季	0.51	-0.09	0.60	0.02		秋季	0.54	-0.06	0.60	0.02
	冬季	0.11	-0.01	0.12	0.02		冬季	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.01
	全年	0.24	0.17	0.07	0.00		全年	0.23	0.28	-0.05	0.00

区域	年份	降水量倾向率	PET倾向率	差值	区域	年份	降水量倾向率	PET倾向率	差值
兰州市	1980—1990	11.50^*	3.62	7.88	定西市	1980—1990	2.07	3.15	-1.08
	1991—2010	-4.26^*	0.74	-5.00		1991—2010	-0.39	1.14	-1.53
	2011—2023	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09		2011—2023	0.71	0.75	-0.04
白银市	1980—1990	8.10	3.52	4.58	陇中地区	1980—1990	7.13	3.39	3.74
	1991—2010	-2.99	0.39	-3.38		1991—2010	-2.32	0.74	-3.06
	2011—2023	-1.64	2.03	-3.67		2011—2023	-0.30	1.06	-1.36

年份	季节	兰州市	白银市	定西市
1980—1990	春夏季	13.64	9.09	9.09
	秋冬季	22.73	22.73	22.73
1991—2010	春夏季	27.50	22.50	22.50
	秋冬季	20.00	20.00	25.00
2011—2023	春夏季	19.23	19.23	26.92
	秋冬季	7.69	7.69	3.85