伊犁河流域多时间尺度气象干旱时空特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.377

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

伊犁河是连接中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦的重要跨境河流，近年来流域内干旱形势日益严峻。基于1980—2023年ERA5-Land数据，以标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）为评价指标，结合Theil-Sen斜率、游程理论和概率分布函数等方法，从多时间尺度探讨伊犁河流域气象干旱时空特征。结果表明：（1） 1980—2023年伊犁河流域春季、夏季、秋季和年尺度SPEI整体均显著下降（P<0.05），年尺度SPEI存在约7 a和13 a的振荡周期。（2）月、季、年尺度下，近44 a伊犁河流域的干旱发生率均呈增加趋势，干旱烈度均显著加剧（P<0.05）。（3） 2020—2023年伊犁河流域干旱特征突出，干旱发生率和干旱烈度均处于近44 a高值。（4）干旱历时和干旱烈度正相关性强，二者的重现期阈值空间分布特征相近，联合概率与同现概率空间格局基本一致。（5）空间上，巴尔喀什湖周边和中国境内部分是伊犁河流域干旱化趋势明显，且易发生极端干旱事件的典型区域，应加强该区域的干旱监测与风险预警体系建设。研究结果可为伊犁河流域干旱灾害风险防控与适应性管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 气象干旱, SPEI, 游程理论, Copula函数, 伊犁河流域

Abstract:

The Ili River, a key transboundary river linking Xinjiang, China, and Kazakhstan, has experienced increasingly severe droughts. Based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data (1980—2023) and using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the evaluation metric, the multi-timescale spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin were systematically analyzed using the Theil-Sen slope, run theory, and probability distribution functions. Results indicate that (1) From 1980 to 2023, the SPEI exhibited a significant declining trend in spring, summer, autumn, and annually (P<0.05), with a quasi-periodic oscillation of ~7 and ~13 years at the annual scale. (2) Over the past 44 years, drought frequency increased, and drought severity significantly intensified (P<0.05) at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3) Drought conditions were most severe from 2020 to 2023, with drought frequency and intensity reaching their highest values in 44 years. (4) Drought duration was strongly positively correlated with severity, with similar spatial patterns of their return periods and consistent joint and cooccurrence probabilities. (5) Spatially, areas around Lake Balkhash and parts of the Ili River Basin in China were identified as drought hotspots, exhibiting pronounced drying trends and frequent extreme events; thus, strengthening drought monitoring and early warning systems in these regions is essential. These findings provide a scientific basis for drought risk prevention and adaptive management in the Ili River Basin.

Key words: meteorological drought, SPEI, run theory, Copula function, Ili River Basin

周悦, 鲁瑞洁, 黄梦真. 伊犁河流域多时间尺度气象干旱时空特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(5): 894-906.

ZHOU Yue, LU Ruijie, HUANG Mengzhen. Spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-timescale meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 894-906.

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站点名称	月降水量	2 m高度月平均气温
博乐	0.711	0.994
霍尔果斯	0.602	0.996
霍城	0.400	0.991
温泉	0.763	0.994
精河	0.581	0.995
乌苏	0.607	0.995
察布查尔	0.590	0.991
伊宁	0.635	0.990
尼勒克	0.773	0.994
伊宁县	0.568	0.996
巩留	0.646	0.992
新源	0.843	0.995
昭苏	0.883	0.995
特克斯	0.845	0.993
巴音布鲁克	0.851	0.971

函数	最优面积占比/%
函数	AIC	RMSE
Clayton	21.95	0.35
Frank	78.05	73.69
Gumbel	0.00	25.95