适用于流域尺度精准灾害管理的综合风险区划

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.238

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风险区划作为灾害风险管理的关键手段，对于精准识别灾害风险、科学调配防灾资源具有重要意义。基于自然地理数据、灾情统计数据以及科考调查数据，按照“孕灾环境敏感性-自然灾害影响显著性-灾害风险等级”3级体系构建风险区划模型，在典型流域新疆伊犁河流域以1 km格网为最小单元针对流域内主要灾害类型进行综合风险区划。通过选取3类因子对应的12个评价指标，划分出3个孕灾环境敏感区，9个自然灾害显著影响区以及26个综合风险区，并从实测数据及调查问卷2方面验证了结果的准确性。结果表明：（1）伊犁河流域内灾害综合风险分布呈现东高西低的趋势，具有显著的空间差异性。（2）流域内多种灾害频发，主要涉及到的灾害类型包含洪涝、地质灾害、干旱以及雪灾等。（3）区划结果在整体空间分布以及典型灾害类型表征上与历史数据及相关研究具有一致性。区别于全国灾害风险普查的相对宏观性，聚焦流域尺度，结合独特的地质构造、气候特征等孕灾环境，深度剖析特定的灾害类型，构建适配当地实际情况的风险区划体系，便于切实提升当地灾害风险管理的精准性与有效性，保障地区内生态经济可持续发展。

关键词: 流域尺度, 灾害管理, 区划, 灾害综合风险, 伊犁河流域

Abstract:

Risk zoning, a key method in disaster risk management, plays a significant role in the accurate identification of disaster risks and scientific allocation of disaster prevention resources. Accordingly, a risk zoning model was constructed employing a three-level system of “disaster-prone environmental sensitivity, natural disaster impact significance, and disaster risk levels” and applied to natural geographical data, disaster statistics, and field survey data for the Ili River Basin in Xinjiang, a typical watershed, using a 1 km grid, to conduct comprehensive risk zoning for major disaster types in the basin. This study employed 12 evaluation indicators corresponding to 3 categories of factors to divide the region into 3 disaster-prone environmental sensitivity zones, 9 natural disaster significant impact zones, and 26 comprehensive risk zones to conduct an in-depth analysis of specific disaster types. The accuracy of the results was validated using field data and survey questionnaires. The results indicate that (1) The comprehensive disaster risk in the Ili River Basin shows an east-high, west-low trend, with significant spatial differences. (2) Multiple types of disasters frequently occur in the basin, including floods, geological disasters, droughts, and snow disasters. (3) The zoning results are consistent with historical data and relevant studies in terms of overall spatial distribution and the representation of typical disaster types. Unlike more macro-scale national disaster risk assessments, this study was conducted on the scale of a watershed to take into consideration the unique geological structure, climate characteristics, and other disaster-prone environmental factors of the study area. By constructing a risk zoning system tailored to the local context, this study was intended to enhance the precision and effectiveness of local disaster risk management and ensure the sustainable development of the region’s ecological economy.

Key words: watershed scale, disaster management, zoning, comprehensive disaster risk, Ili River Basin

张靖欣, 周磊, 胡森苗, 于杨, 刘京会, 武建军. 适用于流域尺度精准灾害管理的综合风险区划[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(4): 816-829.

ZHANG Jingxin, ZHOU Lei, HU Senmiao, YU Yang, LIU Jinghui, WU Jianjun. Integrated risk zoning for accurate disaster management at the watershed scale[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(4): 816-829.

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目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	指标层权重	一致性指标	一致性比率
敏感性指标	气象条件	0.481	降水量	0.401	0.011	0.009
	气象条件	0.481	气温	0.080
	地形条件	0.430	高程标准差	0.263
	地形条件	0.430	坡度	0.167
	地貌条件	0.089	土壤类型	0.054
	地貌条件	0.089	土地利用类型	0.035

目标层	准则层	准则层权重	指标层	指标层权重	一致性指标	一致性比率
灾害影响显著性指标	灾害数量	0.048	灾害数量	0.048	0.012	0.009
	人口	0.410	受灾人口占比	0.151
	人口	0.410	死亡人口占比	0.259
	农业	0.240	农作物受灾面积占比	0.105
	农业	0.240	农作物绝收面积占比	0.125
	经济损失	0.312	直接经济损失	0.312

指标层	极低敏感性	低敏感性	中等敏感性	高敏感性	极高敏感性	权重
降水量/mm	<201	202~250	251~300	301~375	376~525	0.397
气温/℃	<-4.00	-3.90~-0.25	-0.24~3.60	3.61~7.80	7.81~12.30	0.080
高程标准差/m	<2.000	2.001~8.000	8.001~15.000	15.001~1700.000	1700.001~3000.000	0.263
坡度/(°)	<8	9~18	19~28	29~38	39~85	0.167
土壤类型	砂土、砂质壤土和壤质砂土	粉砂、壤土	砂质粘壤土	砂质黏土、粉质黏土和黏土	黏壤土、粉质粘壤土	0.057
土地利用类型	不透水面	森林、湿地	草地、农田	荒地	湖泊、雪山	0.036

敏感性分级	孕灾环境敏感性指数	面积/km²	占比/%
低敏感性	1.29~2.04	17809.26	31.76
中低敏感性	2.05~2.69	13996.23	24.96
中等敏感性	2.70~3.25	9366.95	16.70
中高敏感性	3.26~3.84	7588.53	13.53
高敏感性	3.85~4.98	7320.46	13.05

编码	区域名称	面积占比/%
Ⅰ-A	低敏平原洪涝地灾危险区	22.32
Ⅰ-B	低敏平原洪涝危险区	14.41
Ⅰ-C	低敏平原干旱危险区	4.50
Ⅱ-A	中敏丘陵洪涝地灾危险区	14.65
Ⅱ-B	中敏丘陵洪涝危险区	12.23
Ⅱ-C	中敏丘陵干旱危险区	6.27
Ⅲ-A	高敏山地洪涝地灾危险区	9.54
Ⅲ-B	高敏山地洪涝危险区	8.93
Ⅲ-C	高敏山地干旱危险区	7.16