基于自然气候解决方案的新疆陆地生态系统固碳能力估算

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.053

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (7): 1198-1205.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.053 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024053

基于自然气候解决方案的新疆陆地生态系统固碳能力估算

张一凡¹^,²(), 陈亚鹏¹(), 陈亚宁¹, 梁其祥¹^,²

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2024-01-23 修回日期:2025-04-14 出版日期:2025-07-25 发布日期:2025-07-04
通讯作者: 陈亚鹏（1979-），男，博士，副研究员，主要从事植物水分关系研究. E-mail: chenyp@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:张一凡（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区生态变化及碳汇研究. E-mail: zhangyifan215@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院国际合作项目(131965KYSB20210045)

Estimation of carbon sequestration capacity of Xinjiang terrestrial ecosystem based on natural climate solutions

ZHANG Yifan¹^,²(), CHEN Yapeng¹(), CHEN Yaning¹, LIANG Qixiang¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2024-01-23 Revised:2025-04-14 Published:2025-07-25 Online:2025-07-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 自然气候解决方案是土地部门减缓气候变化的重要战略，在增加碳储量和减少温室气体排放方面潜力巨大。利用简单经验模型量化了2000—2020年新疆实施的国家生态修复项目和积极管理措施的历史固碳贡献，基于14条自然气候解决方案路径估算了2020—2060年新疆森林、草地和农田生态系统的陆地碳汇和减少温室气体排放的潜力。结果表明：2000—2020年，新疆自然气候解决方案的历史贡献平均速率为29.98 Tg CO₂e·a^-1，森林恢复是过去20 a间新疆重要的固碳路径。2020—2060年，在粮食和纤维安全得到保障的情况下，全疆的缓解潜力为49.53 Tg CO₂e·a^-1，其中，森林生态系统缓解潜力为10.91 Tg CO₂e·a^-1，草地生态系统的缓解潜力为10.13 Tg CO₂e·a^-1，农田生态系统的缓解潜力为28.31 Tg CO₂e·a^-1（占比最大，为57.35%）。14条未来自然气候解决方案路径中，保护性耕作路径的缓解潜力最大，为22.72 Tg CO₂e·a^-1，占所有路径的46.06%。因此，合理的农田管理措施在未来新疆固碳中具有较大潜力。

关键词: 自然气候解决方案, 陆地生态系统, 干旱区, 固碳潜力, 保护性耕作

Abstract:

Natural climate solutions are a critical strategy in the land sector for mitigating climate change, with significant potential to enhance carbon storage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This study utilizes a straightforward empirical model to quantify the historical carbon sequestration contributions of national ecological restoration projects and proactive management measures in Xinjiang, China from 2000 to 2020. By examining 14 natural climate solutions pathways, the study estimates the potential for terrestrial carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emission reductions in Xinjiang’s forest, grassland, and cropland ecosystems from 2020 to 2060. The findings indicate that the historical contribution of natural climate solutions in Xinjiang to mitigating climate change averaged an annual rate of 29.98 Tg CO₂e·a^-1 between 2000 and 2020, with forest restoration serving as a key carbon sequestration pathway over the last two decades. From 2020 to 2060, when food and fiber security are guaranteed, the estimated mitigation potential is projected to be 49.53 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, with forest ecosystems contributing a potential of 10.91 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, grassland ecosystems 10.13 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, and cropland ecosystems representing the largest potential at 28.31 Tg CO₂e·a^-1, thus accounting for 57.35% of total mitigation potential. Of the 14 pathways, conservation tillage presents the highest mitigation potential at 22.72 Tg CO₂e·a^-1 making up 46.06% of all pathways. Therefore, effective cropland management measures hold significant promise for enhancing carbon sequestration in Xinjiang in the future.

Key words: natural climate solutions, terrestrial ecosystems, arid regions, carbon sequestration potential, conservation tillage

张一凡, 陈亚鹏, 陈亚宁, 梁其祥. 基于自然气候解决方案的新疆陆地生态系统固碳能力估算[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1198-1205.

ZHANG Yifan, CHEN Yapeng, CHEN Yaning, LIANG Qixiang. Estimation of carbon sequestration capacity of Xinjiang terrestrial ecosystem based on natural climate solutions[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1198-1205.

图/表 2

参考文献 25

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基于自然气候解决方案的新疆陆地生态系统固碳能力估算

Estimation of carbon sequestration capacity of Xinjiang terrestrial ecosystem based on natural climate solutions

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