内蒙古光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.234

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

内蒙古自治区作为中国重要的光伏发电基地，近年来盲目建设光伏电站的问题日益突出，掌握区域光伏开发的适宜性、发电潜力和减排效益对光伏产业的健康发展具有重要意义。为了探讨内蒙古自治区光伏开发适宜性与减排效益，综合利用气象、自然地理和经济社会数据，通过构建“气象-地形-位置-植被”光伏开发适宜性综合评价指标体系，利用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重，借助地理信息系统工具对内蒙古自治区光伏开发适宜性进行空间显性评价，进而定量评估在不同开发强度下的光伏发电潜力与减排效益，并对各盟市光伏发电潜力与电力需求进行对比分析。结果表明：（1）内蒙古自治区西部的光伏开发适宜性大于中部和东部，各类适宜区主要分布在西部的阿拉善盟和巴彦淖尔市，光伏开发特别适宜、较适宜和适宜区域的面积占内蒙古自治区总面积的23.66%。（2）内蒙古自治区光伏发电潜力巨大，特别适宜的区域开发12.57%即可满足内蒙古自治区2021年用电量。（3）内蒙古自治区光伏发电潜力与电力需求分布有着较强的空间异质性，空间格局特征显著。（4）内蒙古自治区光伏发电的节能减排效果显著，与传统燃煤火力发电相比，若特别适宜区全部开发，年碳减排量约2.947×10⁹ t，是2021年内蒙古自治区碳排放总量的4.46倍，占我国2021年碳排放总量的21.20%。研究结果为内蒙古自治区光伏电站选址和光伏产业的健康发展提供科学参考和指导建议。

关键词: 地理信息系统, 光伏发电, 适宜性评价, 发电潜力, 减排效益, 内蒙古

Abstract:

As an important photovoltaic (PV) power generation base, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR), China has seen the problem of blindly constructing PV power stations become more prominent in recent years. It is of great significance to grasp the suitability of regional PV development, power generation potential, and emission reduction benefits for the healthy development of the PV industry. To explore the suitability of PV development in the IMAR and the benefits of emission reduction, this study makes comprehensive use of meteorological, natural geographic, economic, and social data, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of PV development suitability in the form of meteorology-terrain-location-vegetation, uses an analytic hierarchy process to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes, and performs a spatially explicit evaluation of the suitability of PV development in the IMAR with the aid of a geographic information system tool to quantitatively assess the potential of PV power generation and emission reduction benefits under different development intensities. The PV power generation potential of the leagues and cities and the demand for electric power are compared. The results are as follows: (1) The suitability of PV development in the western part of the IMAR is greater than that in the central and eastern parts, and the various suitable areas are mainly located in the western Alagxa League and Bayannur City, with particularly suitable areas for PV development accounting for 23.66% of the total area of the IMAR. (2) The IMAR PV power generation potential is enormous, especially for regional development, where 12.57% of it can meet the IMAR 2021 electricity consumption. (3) The distribution of PV power generation potential and electricity demand in the IMAR has strong spatial heterogeneity, and the spatial pattern is characterized by significant features. (4) The energy saving and emission reduction effect of PV power generation in the IMAR is remarkable. Compared with conventional coal-fired thermal power generation, the annual carbon emission reduction is approximately 2.947×10⁹ t if the development of a special suitable area is performed, which is 4.46 times the total carbon emission of the IMAR in 2021 and accounts for 21.20% of China’s total carbon emission in 2021. These results provide scientific references and guiding suggestions for the placement of PV power stations and the healthy development of the PV industry in the IMAR.

Key words: geographic information system, photovoltaic power generation, suitability evaluation, generation potential, emission reduction benefits, Inner Mongolia

徐伟, 刘振领. 内蒙古光伏开发空间适宜性及减排效益研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(4): 684-694.

XU Wei, LIU Zhenling. Spatial suitability and emission reduction benefits of photovoltaic development in Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 684-694.

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数据名称	处理方法	数据来源
整体水平辐照	多年平均值	Global Solar Atl-as2.0
归一化植被指数	2012—2022年平均值	美国航空航天局发布的MODISMOD13A1产品
土地利用类型	按照用地类型把研究区域划分为限制区和非限制区2类，并剔除限制区	全球地表覆盖数据库Globeland30（2020版）
气温	采用Anusplin插值软件进行空间插值	中国气象科学数据共享服务网
降水量、风速、日照时数	借助ArcMap 10.8软件采用Kriging法进行空间插值	中国气象科学数据共享服务网
道路、居民点、保护区、河流	欧氏距离分析	全国基础地理数据库
数字高程模型	生成坡度和坡向数据	地理空间数据云平台

参数	设定依据	参数值
AF（接受太阳辐射的面积因子）	Zhao等^[20]	0.35
ASR（单位面积受到的年太阳辐射量）	平均太阳辐射量	1421.8575
PE（光伏板的发电效率）	多晶硅电池板发电转换效率	16.5%
LO（发电量损耗率）	Li等^[21]	7.5%
AP（弃光率）	国家可再生能源中心	4.0%

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
RI	0.00	0.00	0.58	0.90	1.12	1.24
n	7	8	9	10	11	12
RI	1.32	1.41	1.45	1.49	1.51	1.54

目标层	一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重
光伏开发	气象	0.55	太阳辐射量	0.51
			日照时数	0.26
			气温	0.10
			降水量	0.08
			风速	0.05
	地形	0.14	坡度	0.66
	地形	0.14	坡向	0.34
	位置	0.23	道路距离	0.28
			居民点距离	0.50
			河流距离	0.07
			保护区距离	0.15
	植被	0.08	NDVI	1.00

城市	特别适宜区面积	较适宜区面积	适宜区面积	较不适宜区面积	不适宜区面积
阿拉善盟	39438.75	155277.57	27985.94	192.90	0.00
巴彦淖尔市	9395.69	16386.60	283.85	57.91	0.00
包头市	0.00	377.99	631.88	0.00	0.00
赤峰市	1350.10	0.00	1924.86	884.82	82.40
鄂尔多斯市	0.00	7740.21	4484.42	0.00	0.00
呼和浩特市	0.00	0.00	102.25	0.00	0.00
呼伦贝尔市	0.00	0.00	312.45	2698.23	231.62
通辽市	0.00	0.00	173.91	926.48	220.17
乌海市	0.00	85.32	57.91	0.00	0.00
乌兰察布市	0.00	1493.56	3637.92	0.00	0.00
锡林郭勒盟	0.00	4648.07	4110.55	718.69	0.00
兴安盟	0.00	0.00	0.00	332.24	459.46
总面积	50184.54	186009.32	43705.94	5811.27	993.65