Abstract: Analysis of driving factors of energy related carbon emissions from the regional perspective is necessary and helpful for China to achieve its reduction targets. Aims of this case study are to analyze the energy related carbon emissions and to find out the most important driving factors to the carbon emissions increments in Xinjiang. Our estimates were based on the national and provincial statistics, including population(population size and population structure), economy(gross domestic product, industrial structure, fixed assets investment, and import-export trades), and energy(total energy consumption and energy consumption structure)from 1952 to 2014. Population and economic data were collected from the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook(1990-2015)and Xinjiang Fifty Years(1955-2005). Economic data was measured by GDP in Chinese Yuan in time series, taken in constant prices of 1952 to avoid the impact of the inflation. Energy data includes total energy consumption by fuel types were collected from Xinjiang Statistical Yearbooks(1990-2015)and Xinjiang Fifty Years(1955-2005), which were compiled by the Xinjiang Statistical Bureau. Energy related carbon emissions were calculated according to the method of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. An extended STIRPAT model based on the classical IPAT identity was used to determine the main driving factors for energy related carbon emissions in Xinjiang. In order to get the best understanding of driving factors on carbon emissions during 1952-2014, we divided the process into 3 stages, including"Before Reform and Opening up"(1952-1978), "After Reform and Opening up"(1978-2000), and"Western Development"(2000-2014). The innovation and contribution of this study compared with other references mainly lie in the following two aspects. Firstly, influencing factors affecting carbon emissions are more complex than the relevant carbon emissions research conducted in Xinjiang. Secondly, research on different region also with comparative analysis of different development stages may have different conclusions. Research results show that the impacts and influences of various factors on carbon emissions are different in the three different development stages. Before the Reform and Opening up(1952-1977), carbon intensity and population size are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while energy consumption structure is the important influencing factor in curbing carbon emissions. After the Reform and Opening up(1978-2000), economic growth and population size are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while technological progress plays an important negative effect on carbon emissions. During the Western Development(2001-2014), fixed assets investment and economic growth are the two dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments, while carbon intensity plays an important negative effect on carbon emissions. Solving these problems effectively will be of great help for Xinjiang to harmonize economic growth and carbon emissions reduction, even environmental damage reduction.

Key words: carbon emissions, Xinjiang, STIRPAT model, driving factors