新疆相对贫困空间分布特征及障碍因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.537

Abstract

Abstract:

This study described the spatial distribution of poverty in Xinjiang of China, analyzed obstacles related to it, determined its spatial differentiation mechanism, and identified the effects of poverty reduction to formulate antipoverty strategies. Data from 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang ranging from 2016 to 2021 were selected as research objects. The TOPSIS model and the method of entropy were used to evaluate relative poverty, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of relative poverty, and the obstacle degree model and geodetector were used to analyze the driving factors for prefectural relative poverty. The results showed that: (1) The relative poverty distribution across the 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang exhibited significant spatial differentiation and clustering. Areas having higher poverty risks are primarily concentrated in the southern regions of Xinjiang, namely, Aksu Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture, Hotan Prefecture, and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, along with Altay Prefecture in northern Xinjiang. (2) The analysis of the degree of obstacle found that factors such as per capita sowing area, per capita total power of agricultural machinery, and average wage of nonprivate employees had significant effects on the risk of relative poverty in Xinjiang. Economic and manpower factor development levels were the main drivers of spatial poverty. (3) The spatial distribution of the relative poverty level was an outcome of the interaction among various influencing factors, with an obvious “barrel effect” existing among them. The interaction between social and other factors will enhance the influence on relative poverty. Hence, for the sustainable development of the regional economy, precise poverty alleviation and poverty reduction policies have played a role in promoting equalization in the space of development opportunities.

Key words: relative poverty, TOPSIS model, spatial autocorrelation, obstacle degree model, Xinjiang

RUI Dongsheng, MAO Lu, REN Yanxia, GONG Haoxuan, LI Yanping, FU Zhicong. Spatial distribution characteristics and obstacle factors of relative poverty in Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1672-1682.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 34

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目标层	维度层	指标层	指标单位	指标属性
多维相对贫困指标体系	自然	人均农作物播种面积（X₁）	hm²·人^-1	正向
		年均降水量（X₂）	mm	正向
		单位面积粮食产量（X₃）	kg·hm^-2	正向
	人力	平均万人普通中小学在校生数（X₄）	人·(10人)^-4	正向
		平均万人普通中小学教师数（X₅）	人·(10人)^-4	正向
		乡村劳动力占乡村人口比例（X₆）	％	正向
		人均农业机械总动力（X₇）	kW·人^-1	正向
	经济	人均GDP（X₈）	元	正向
		非私营单位就业人员平均工资（X₉）	元	正向
		私营单位就业人员平均工资（X₁₀）	元	正向
		人均社会消费品零售总额（X₁₁）	元	正向
		城镇居民人均可支配收入（X₁₂）	元	正向
		农村居民人均可支配收入（X₁₃）	元	正向
	社会	平均万人拥有卫生机构数（X₁₄）	个·(10人)^-4	正向
		平均万人拥有卫生机构床位数（X₁₅）	张·(10人)^-4	正向
		平均万人拥有卫生技术人员数（X₁₆）	人·(10人)^-4	正向
		一般公共预算收支比（X₁₇）	％	正向
		第一产业增加值占比（X₁₈）	％	负向

交互特征	交互类型
q(X1∩X2)>q(X1)+q(X2)	非线性增强
q(X1∩X2)<Min[q(X1), q(X2)]	非线性减弱
q(X1∩X2)>Max[q(X1), q(X2)]	双因子增强
Min[q(X1), q(X2)]<q(X1∩X2)<Min[q(X1), q(X2)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(X1∩X2)=q(X1)+q(X2)	独立

维度层	指标层	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年
自然	X₁	7.579	7.734	8.822	8.746	8.321	9.261
	X₂	5.610	4.978	5.222	4.700	6.629	4.332
	X₃	5.213	5.493	2.636	6.573	7.239	7.438
人力	X₄	7.256	6.711	6.316	7.005	8.570	8.382
	X₅	3.631	3.794	4.793	3.972	3.633	4.494
	X₆	3.309	3.072	3.412	2.574	5.730	3.896
	X₇	11.254	11.523	14.667	13.615	10.803	12.963
经济	X₈	6.155	5.995	5.791	5.647	5.178	5.321
	X₉	4.242	4.986	5.590	8.484	7.527	6.251
	X₁₀	4.442	5.937	6.190	3.480	3.467	2.301
	X₁₁	6.184	6.263	5.858	4.853	4.623	4.750
	X₁₂	4.721	4.556	4.375	4.333	4.209	4.283
	X₁₃	4.286	4.717	4.732	4.521	4.653	5.210
社会	X₁₄	2.261	2.231	2.103	2.027	2.184	3.262
	X₁₅	7.180	4.240	3.327	5.311	3.401	5.770
	X₁₆	5.832	6.112	6.321	5.049	5.326	3.239
	X₁₇	6.884	7.706	6.701	6.561	6.370	6.561
	X₁₈	3.961	3.953	3.144	2.549	2.140	2.286

年份	全局Moran’s I	Z值	P值
2016	0.058476	0.561573	0.574407
2017	0.228289	1.175644	0.239737
2018	0.000995	0.309823	0.756696
2019	0.274568	-0.856337	0.391811
2020	0.015039	0.392820	0.694452
2021	0.089280	1.129658	0.258620

地州市	障碍度指标排序
地州市	1	2	3	4	5	6
乌鲁木齐市	X₇（0.193）	X₁（0.153）	X₄（0.150）	X₃（0.096）	X₂（0.075）	X₅（0.067）
克拉玛依市	X₄（0.242）	X₂（0.190）	X₁₅（0.103）	X₆（0.086）	X₅（0.083）	X₁₄（0.070）
吐鲁番市	X₇（0.141）	X₁（0.113）	X₃（0.098）	X₂（0.090）	X₉（0.086）	X₄（0.067）
哈密市	X₇（0.141）	X₄（0.067）	X₁（0.113）	X₃（0.098）	X₂（0.090）	X₁₇（0.046）
昌吉州	X₇（0.142）	X₄（0.134）	X₃（0.096）	X₁（0.079）	X₉（0.072）	X₂（0.071）
伊犁州直	X₇（0.163）	X₁（0.108）	X₉（0.097）	X₄（0.078）	X₁₇（0.073）	X₈（0.068）
塔城地区	X₇（0.135）	X₄（0.125）	X₉（0.092）	X₁₇（0.081）	X₁₆（0.064）	X₁₁（0.062）
阿勒泰地区	X₇（0.139）	X₉（0.103）	X₄（0.092）	X₁₇（0.081）	X₆（0.071）	X₁（0.066）
博州	X₇（0.146）	X₄（0.128）	X₁₇（0.082）	X₆（0.080）	X₁（0.060）	X₂（0.059）
巴州	X₇（0.127）	X₉（0.115）	X₄（0.097）	X₂（0.091）	X₁（0.068）	X₁₇（0.068）
阿克苏地区	X₇（0.143）	X₉（0.090）	X₁（0.079）	X₃（0.077）	X₂（0.067）	X₁₇（0.067）
克州	X₇（0.145）	X₁（0.111）	X₃（0.094）	X₁₇（0.085）	X₉（0.081）	X₆（0.079）
喀什地区	X₇（0.141）	X₁（0.100）	X₃（0.089）	X₁₇（0.085）	X₉（0.069）	X₁₆（0.067）
和田地区	X₇（0.135）	X₁（0.102）	X₃（0.090）	X₉（0.089）	X₁₇（0.079）	X₁₆（0.066）

Spatial distribution characteristics and obstacle factors of relative poverty in Xinjiang

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指标	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₄	X₁₅	X₁₆	X₁₇	X₁₈
X₁	0.729	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₂	0.984	0.420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₃	0.987	1.000	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₄	0.992	0.621	0.677	0.390	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₅	0.999	0.988	0.677	0.574	0.515	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₆	1.000	0.976	0.941	0.948	0.950	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₇	0.770	0.993	0.987	0.962	0.999	1.000	0.739	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₈	0.986	0.993	0.979	0.917	0.927	0.950	0.949	0.891	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₉	1.000	0.998	0.992	0.879	0.971	0.972	0.968	0.942	0.836	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₁₀	0.837	0.987	0.928	0.874	0.985	0.941	0.843	0.968	0.871	0.769	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₁₁	0.991	0.959	0.974	0.959	0.971	0.976	0.961	0.956	0.955	0.919	0.888	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₁₂	0.966	0.958	0.953	0.988	0.971	0.967	0.983	0.959	0.969	0.938	0.945	0.906	-	-	-	-	-	-
X₁₃	0.991	0.988	0.990	0.949	0.964	0.998	0.961	0.956	0.945	0.956	0.954	0.968	0.939	-	-	-	-	-
X₁₄	0.969	0.962	0.966	0.968	0.996	0.990	0.968	0.968	0.968	0.962	0.962	0.974	0.964	0.917	-	-	-	-
X₁₅	0.915	0.621	1.000	0.619	0.990	1.000	0.907	0.987	0.991	0.898	0.994	0.991	0.983	0.992	0.489	-	-	-
X₁₆	0.994	0.980	0.984	0.965	0.976	0.981	0.967	0.962	0.956	0.950	0.949	0.968	0.959	0.962	0.999	0.916	-	-
X₁₇	0.983	0.989	0.963	0.997	0.977	0.991	0.987	0.965	0.977	0.948	0.945	0.934	0.967	0.986	0.999	0.970	0.908	-
X₁₈	0.986	0.998	0.992	0.887	0.971	0.938	0.954	0.971	0.963	0.934	0.931	0.947	0.971	0.974	0.994	0.948	0.931	0.758

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