青海湖国家公园农户现代化与生计稳定性耦合协调研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.117

Abstract

Abstract:

Advancing the coordinated development of farm household modernization and livelihood stability is the key to achieving the rural revitalization strategy. Considering Qinghai Lake National Park in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China, this study, grounded in modernization theory and the connotation of stability, used the participatory rural assessment method to evaluate the 2022 farm household modernization level across production, life, and ecological dimensions while measuring livelihood stability through diversity and dependency metrics. It systematically analyzed their coupling coordination relationship with spatial heterogeneity characteristics, identified core driving factors using the random forest model, and ultimately proposed targeted optimization strategies using empirical results. The results reveal that (1) The overall development levels of farm household modernization and livelihood stability in Qinghai Lake National Park were relatively low, maintaining a moderately coordinated stage with essentially synchronous development processes in 2022. (2) Significant differences were observed among different types of farm households in terms of modernization level, livelihood stability, and coupling coordination degree, demonstrating a gradient pattern: service-oriented>labor-oriented>agriculture and livestock-oriented>government-supported. (3) The coupling coordination degree displays distinct spatial heterogeneity characteristics, with high-value clustering predominantly observed in scenic zones and adjacent areas exhibiting convenient transportation access and high development intensity. (4) Overreliance on single income sources and natural resources is identified as a critical constraint to the synergistic development of modernization and livelihood stability. By investigating the coupling relationship and driving mechanisms between farm household modernization and livelihood stability, this study can provide valuable references for enhancing the sustainable livelihood capacity of regional farm households and implementing the rural revitalization strategy.

Key words: farm household modernization, livelihood stability, coupled coordination, spatial heterogeneity, Qinghai Lake National Park

GAO Junjie, ZHONG Juntao, MA Yongjie, CHEN Yinghui. Coupling coordination of farm household modernization and livelihood stability in Qinghai Lake National Park[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 631-642.

Figures/Tables 9

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统计量	农牧业主导型	服务业主导型	政府兜底型	务工主导型
收入来源占比	种植及畜牧业≥60%	旅游、经商等服务性活动≥60%	政府补助≥90%	务工活动≥90%
样本户数	1172	380	123	139
户均人口数	4.21	3.97	3.43	3.72
户均劳动力数	2.30	2.36	2.10	2.19

维度	指标层	指标说明	属性	权重
生产现代化	产业组织化程度/个	参与合作社数量	+	0.117
	劳动力素质/a	劳动力人均受教育年限	+	0.123
	机械化程度/台	拥有农业机械数量	+	0.076
	劳动生产率/元·人^-1	家庭总收入与劳动力数量的比值	+	0.102
	非农产业水平/%	第二、三产业收入占家庭总收入比重	+	0.114
	生计渠道数量/种	收入渠道数	+	0.043
	土地产出率/10⁴元·hm^-2	单位土地面积的农业产值	+	0.079
	农业保险深度	农业保险保额占农产品产值比重/%	+	0.064
生活现代化	供水便利度	据用水来源赋值：自来水=1；井水=0.75；泉水=0.5；河湖水=0.25；取水困难=0	+	0.007
	住房条件	据住房结构赋值：砖混=1；砖木=0.75；土木=0.5；土坯、彩钢=0.25	+	0.011
	卫生设施水平	据厕所类型赋值：马桶=1；旱厕=0.75；露天厕所=0.5；开放式厕所=0.25	+	0.030
	家电保有量/台	大型家电数量	+	0.029
	家庭出行能力	据交通工具种类及数量赋值：轿车=1；农用车=0.75；摩托车=0.5；自行车=0.25	+	0.029
	恩格尔系数/%	食物支出占家庭总支出比重	-	0.043
	教育文娱消费水平/%	教育文娱支出占家庭总支出比重	+	0.041
生态现代化	草场质量	据草场质量赋值：优秀=1；良好=0.75；差=0.5；较差=0.25；极差=0	+	0.067
	生态保护意识	据环保意识赋值：优秀=1；良好=0.75；差=0.5；较差=0.25；极差=0	+	0.006
	轮牧实施情况	据季节性轮牧实施情况赋值：是=1；否=0	+	0.019

现代化指标	农牧业主导型	服务业主导型	政府兜底型	务工主导型	研究区总体
产业组织化程度	0.038	0.042	0.028	0.017	0.036
劳动力素质	0.044	0.063	0.041	0.058	0.049
机械化程度	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.001
劳动生产率	0.026	0.024	0.009	0.012	0.024
非农产业水平	0.006	0.045	0.011	0.078	0.020
生计渠道数量	0.015	0.021	0.000	0.016	0.015
土地产出率	0.011	0.004	0.004	0.002	0.008
农业保险深度	0.018	0.019	0.017	0.015	0.018
供水便利度	0.006	0.006	0.005	0.006	0.006
住房条件	0.008	0.009	0.008	0.009	0.008
卫生设施水平	0.010	0.012	0.009	0.010	0.010
家电保有量	0.009	0.008	0.007	0.004	0.008
家庭出行能力	0.007	0.006	0.005	0.004	0.007
恩格尔系数	0.009	0.010	0.011	0.012	0.009
教育文娱消费水平	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.004	0.005
草场质量	0.042	0.046	0.040	0.041	0.042
生态保护意识	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.004	0.005
轮牧实施情况	0.018	0.018	0.018	0.017	0.018
现代化指数	0.274	0.344	0.223	0.309	0.288

生计类型	农户现代化	生计稳定性	耦合协调度	耦合协调阶段	相对发展阶段
农牧业主导型	0.274	0.262	0.497	中度协调	同步发展型
服务业主导型	0.344	0.454	0.616	高度协调	现代化滞后型
政府兜底型	0.223	0.200	0.376	初级协调	同步发展型
务工主导型	0.309	0.427	0.594	中度协调	现代化滞后型
研究区总体	0.288	0.311	0.521	中度协调	同步发展型

Coupling coordination of farm household modernization and livelihood stability in Qinghai Lake National Park

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