Abstract:

Agriculture in arid regions plays a vital role in advancing local socio-economic development and ecological sustainability, given the unique resource and environmental constraints. This study examines Xinjiang, China, as a case study, utilizing the center of gravity transfer model, locational Gini coefficient, comparative advantage index, and global Moran’s I index at the county level to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the six major crops from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) Xinjiang’s agricultural planting scale has been growing steadily from 2000 and 2020, and cotton, vegetables, and melons “advancing”, grain, oil, and sugar crops “restreating” constitute the basic competitive situation of the major crops. (2) The production centers for the six major crops are predominantly located in the central and western regions of Xinjiang. The concentration of cotton, vegetables, and melon production has steadily increased, with production becoming concentrated in a relatively small number of counties. (3) At the national level, all six major crops exhibit efficiency comparative advantages. Cotton, sugar, and melon production demonstrate both scale and comprehensive comparative advantages, with cotton showing a particularly pronounced scale advantage. At the regional level, most counties in Xinjiang lack comparative advantages in crop production. Counties with comparative advantages are primarily scale-dominated. (4) The evolution of Xinjiang’s crop production pattern has been influenced by several critical factors, including policy directives, technological advancements, and rising farmer incomes.

Key words: crops, spatio-temporal pattern, comparative advantage, arid region, Xinjiang