1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.636

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought and water scarcity are inherent features of Xinjiang’s physical geography. It is crucial to understand the spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use for effective water resources demand management. In this study, we investigated the influencing factors which drive the temporal change and spatial heterogeneity in water use pattern in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. In addition, we quantified the main influencing factors contributing to higher per capita water use in Xinjiang in comparison to the average levels of other regions in northwest China and whole China. The conclusions can be drawn: (1) The total water use in Xinjiang showed a first increasing then decreasing trend, whereas per capita water use showed an overall declining trend. (2) The change of water use intensity and industrial structure were the main reasons for the decline of total water use in Xinjiang. (3) High water intensity and agriculture dominated industrial structure were the main reasons for higher per capita water use in Xinjiang than other regions in northwest China and whole China. (4) Per capita water use across various prefectures in Xinjiang exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, primarily attributable to variations in water use intensity, per capita GDP, and industrial structure. Based on the main results, we propose relevant water management policy recommendations, which can provide a scientific reference for sustainable water use and management in Xinjiang.

Key words: water resources management, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, water resources exploitation, spatial heterogeneity, Xinjiang

LIU Hui, SUN Siao, FANG Chuanglin, ZHOU Di, BAO Chao. Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1451-1461.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 31

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指标	用水强度	产业结构	人均GDP	人口	人均居民生活用水量	生态环境用水量	用水总量变化量
累计效应/10⁸ m³	-833.4	-414.4	1062.3	250.6	8.7	20.9	94.8
累计贡献率/%	-879.1	-437.1	1120.6	264.4	9.2	22.0	100.0

组别	年份	效应/m³（贡献率/%）					人均用水量差异/m³
组别	年份	用水强度	产业结构	人均GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异/m³
新疆-西北其他地区	2004	1338.7（64.1）	341.7（16.4）	304.4（14.6）	5.2（0.2）	98.0（4.7）	2087.9
新疆-西北其他地区	2020	1383.2（76.5）	325.5（18.0）	19.9（1.1）	23.6（1.3）	56.5（3.1）	1808.7
新疆-全国	2004	1822.2（87.9）	425.1（20.5）	-261.8（-12.6）	-5.4（-0.3）	93.0（4.5）	2073.1
新疆-全国	2020	1425.7（80.2）	525.5（29.6）	-248.5（-14.0）	12.7（0.7）	61.3（3.5）	1776.7

地州市	2004年						2020年
地州市	用水强度	产业结构	人均 GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异	用水强度	产业结构	人均 GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异
乌鲁木齐市	-169.6	-2251.6	298.8	17.7	-92.1	-2196.7	-279.2	-1891.1	287.4	-4.4	-48.3	-1935.6
克拉玛依市	512.5	-4396.0	2143.4	51.1	227.8	-1461.2	-657.5	-2140.5	1426.5	-3.7	210.6	-1164.7
吐鲁番市	-1419.3	289.8	758.4	6.8	-49.2	-413.6	-612.2	214.4	-36.9	-13.5	89.8	-358.4
哈密市	800.2	-878.9	-335.6	-10.9	-62.0	-487.2	-782.4	-914.3	753.0	-1.8	31.3	-914.3
昌吉州	-932.1	863.7	-249.3	0.5	-93.3	-410.4	-1196.6	412.3	954.3	15.2	-21.7	163.5
博州	-958.5	1821.5	-113.9	1.9	-99.6	651.3	-699.0	1069.8	896.9	-7.5	7.0	1267.1
巴州	-306.3	-360.2	1578.3	14.2	37.2	963.3	-85.7	296.7	531.5	11.5	114.6	868.5
阿克苏地区	1770.9	2020.6	-1667.3	-0.6	-95.9	2027.6	819.2	1417.6	-361.2	-24.3	-51.4	1799.9
克州	240.7	731.6	-1789.0	-13.1	-91.3	-921.1	1317.4	-529.5	-1264.1	7.6	167.7	-301.0
喀什地区	1375.6	1943.1	-2945.9	-14.0	-71.8	287.0	588.9	1503.0	-1731.0	7.8	-1.9	366.8
和田地区	838.8	1714.5	-2960.7	-21.7	56.2	-373.0	1237.7	457.7	-2182.6	-12.4	-8.8	-508.4
伊犁州直	209.5	833.6	-1298.0	6.0	-48.5	-297.4	-249.8	409.9	-406.3	17.4	-67.6	-296.5
塔城地区	-1282.4	1235.3	-414.3	-7.6	20.7	-448.3	-1769.6	2617.8	436.0	13.6	36.3	1334.2
阿勒泰地区	1805.7	1585.4	-584.6	1.5	1543.9	4351.9	2268.9	605.4	-293.7	-4.4	69.5	2645.7
石河子市	3809.8	-1932.3	-1195.3	28.0	-51.8	658.4	281.7	-1748.1	370.4	0.5	51.0	-1044.4

Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

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