新疆巴州北部冬半年降水相态气象因子特征和判识指标分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.342

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the weather phenomenon data from six national weather stations in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, the climatic characteristics of rain, snow, sleet, and rain to snow from October to April in the last 58 years (1961—2018) are analyzed. The results show that the major precipitation types in northern Bayingol Prefecture are rain in October and April, snow in December and January, and sleet and rain to snow mainly occur in November and March. The discrimination criterion and index of precipitation types are quantified using 10 physical variables closely related to the precipitation types transition discovered using sounding data from the Korla station from October 2003 to April 2018. The results show that: (1) Surface minimum temperature, near-surface air temperature, temperature at 850 hPa, geopotential thickness between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, geopotential thickness between 700 hPa and 850 hPa, and 0 ℃ level height can completely distinguish the four precipitation types, and the temperature difference between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, temperature difference between 700 hPa and 850 hPa can distinguish rain, snow, and sleet better. (2) A phase state scoring method for precipitation forecasts was developed, and after a thorough analysis, the combined index accuracy was 92.06% and 94.36% for Korla-Yuli-Luntai Plain and Yanqi Basin, respectively, and the forecast score was 93.58%. (3) The characteristic layer temperature and temperature difference forecast rain and snow with more accuracy than sleet, the geopotential height and thickness forecast snow with greater accuracy than rain and sleet, and the geopotential thickness forecast rain to snow with greater accuracy than the characteristic layer temperature. These comprehensive precipitation type indices have a high reference value for distinguishing precipitation types in northern Bayingol Prefecture and can provide a scientific foundation for improving rain-snow phase transition forecasting accuracy.

Key words: precipitation type, rain to snow, discrimination criterion, examination, northern Bayingol Prefecture

QIU Huimin, WAN Yu, ZHANG Shiming, XIAO Lianyuan, ZHOU Xueying, WEN Chun, JIANG Jujin. Meteorological factor characteristic and index of precipitation types during winter half year in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(4): 563-573.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

References 26

[1]	田亚林, 李雪梅, 李珍, 等. 1980—2017年天山山区不同降水形态的时空变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2): 308-318.
	[Tian Yalin, Li Xuemei, Li Zhen, et al. Spatial and temporal variations of different precipitation types in the Tianshan Mountains from 1980 to 2017[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 308-318.]
[2]	刘梅, 俞剑蔚, 蒋义芳, 等. 2020年3月28日沿江和苏南突发降雪多源监测特征及成因分析[J]. 气象, 2021, 47(10): 1169-1181.
	[Liu Mei, Yu Jianwei, Jiang Yifang, et al. Multi-source monitoring characteristics and causes of abrupt snowfall in southern Jiangsu on 28 March 2020[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2021, 47(10): 1169-1181.]
[3]	孙继松, 梁丰, 陈敏, 等. 北京地区一次小雪天气过程造成路面交通严重受阻的成因分析[J]. 大气科学, 2003, 27(6): 1057-1066.
	[Sun Jisong, Liang Feng, Chen Min, et al. An analysis on serious city traffic trouble caused by light snow[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, 27(6): 1057-1066.]
[4]	龙柯吉, 王佳津, 郭旭, 等. 四川省降水相态识别判据研究[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2016, 36(3): 57-65.
	[Long Keji, Wang Jiajin, Guo Xu, et al. Research on discrimination criterion of precipitation types in Sichuan Province[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2016, 36(3): 57-65.]
[5]	Pierre B. A method to determine precipitation types[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2000, 15(5): 583-592. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0583:AMTDPT>2.0.CO;2
[6]	Heppner, Paul O G. Snow versus rain: Looking beyond the “Magic” numbers[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1992, 7(4): 683-691. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0683:SVRLBT>2.0.CO;2
[7]	Czys R R, Scott R W, Tang K C. A physically based, nondimensional parameter for discriminating between locations of freezing rain and ice pellets[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 1996, 11(4): 591-598. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0591:APBNPF>2.0.CO;2
[8]	李江波, 李根娥, 裴雨杰, 等. 一次春季强寒潮的降水相态变化分析[J]. 气象, 2009, 35(7): 87-94.
	[Li Jiangbo, Li Gen’e, Pei Yujie, et al. Analysis on the phase transformation of precipitation during a strong cold wave happened in spring[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009, 35(7): 87-94.]
[9]	高松影, 李慧琳, 宋丽丽, 等. 丹东冬季降水相态判据研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2014, 30(2): 38-44.
	[Gao Songying, Li Huilin, Song Lili, et al. Study on criteria for winter precipitation phase states in Dandong[J]. Journal of Meteorology Environment, 2014, 30(2): 38-44.]
[10]	漆梁波, 张瑛. 中国东部地区冬季降水相态的识别判据研究[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(1): 96-102.
	[Qi Liangbo, Zhang Ying. Research on winter precipitation types discrimination criterion in eastern China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(1): 96-102.]
[11]	王洪霞, 苗爱梅, 董春卿, 等. 山西一次春季降水过程相态变化的成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(6): 1787-1794. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00165
	[Wang Hongxia, Miao Aimei, Dong Chunqing, et al. Cause analysis on the phase transformation of precipitation in Shanxi in spring[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(6): 1787-1794.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00165
[12]	高婧, 杨涛, 李海燕, 等. 近60 a新疆塔城地区不同相态降水时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.
	[Gao Jing, Yang Tao, Li Haiyan, et al. Temporal and spatial variation of different precipitation types in Tacheng area of Xinjiang in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.]
[13]	张琳娜, 郭锐, 曾剑, 等. 北京地区冬季降水相态的识别判据研究[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(6): 1780-1786. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00147
	[Zhang Linna, Guo Rui, Zeng Jian, et al. Research on winter precipitation types discrimination criterion in Beijing[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(6): 1780-1786.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00147
[14]	许美玲, 梁红丽, 金少华, 等. 昆明冬季降水相态识别判据研究[J]. 气象, 2015, 41(4): 474-479.
	[Xu Meiling, Liang Hongli, Jin Shaohua, et al. Study on identification criterion for precipitation phase in winter Kunming[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2015, 41(4): 474-479.]
[15]	张志杰, 王志楠. 呼和浩特市降水相态识别判据研究[J]. 内蒙古林业科技, 2017, 43(1): 42-47.
	[Zhang Zhijie, Wang Zhinan. Research on identification criterion of precipitation phase in Hohhot[J]. Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology, 2017, 43(1): 42-47.]
[16]	段云霞, 李得勤, 李大为, 等. 沈阳降水相态特征分析及预报方法[J]. 干旱气象, 2016, 34(1): 51-57. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-01-0051P457
	[Duan Yunxia, Li Deqin, Li Dawei, et al. Analysis on precipitation phase characteristics and its forecast methods of Shenyang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2016, 34(1): 51-57.] doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-01-0051P457
[17]	张俊兰, 彭军. 北疆春季降水相态转换判识和成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(4): 939-949. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00094
	[Zhang Junlan, Peng Jun. A forecast analysis of precipitation phase transformation and rainfall intensity in spring over northern Xinjiang[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(4): 939-949.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00094
[18]	杨贵名, 宗志平, 马学款. “方框-端须图”及其应用示例[J]. 气象, 2005, 31(3): 53-55.
	[Yang Guiming, Zong Zhiping, Ma Xuekuan. “Box-whiskey”and its application examples[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2005, 31(3): 53-55.]
[19]	王焕毅, 张翘, 効碧鸿, 等. 本溪冬半年降水相态的识别判据研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(22): 243-247. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15020104
	[Wang Huanyi, Zhang Qiao, Xiao Bihong, et al. Study on identification criterion of precipitation phase in winter-half-year in Benxi[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(22): 243-247.] doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15020104
[20]	戴东新. 暴雪[M]. 上海: 上海科学技术文献出版社, 2014: 94-95.
	[Dai Dongxin. Blizzard[M]. Shanghai: Shanghai Scientific and Technological Literature Press, 2014: 94-95.]
[21]	杨成芳, 姜鹏, 张少林, 等. 山东冬半年降水相态的温度特征统计分析[J]. 气象, 2013, 39(3): 355-361.
	[Yang Chengfang, Jiang Peng, Zhang Shaolin, et al. Analysis on temperature of precipitation types in cold seasons in Shandong[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2013, 39(3): 355-361.]
[22]	孙燕, 严文莲, 尹东屏, 等. 江苏冬季降水相态气候分布特征及预报方法探讨[J]. 气象科学, 2013, 33(3): 325-332.
	[Sun Yan, Yan Wenlian, Yin Dongping, et al. Climatic characteristics and forecast of precipitation phase in winter of Jiangsu[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2013, 33(3): 325-332.]
[23]	李延香. 1993年LAFS数值降水预报产品评价[J]. 应用气象学报, 1995, 6(3): 281-288.
	[Li Yanxiang. Verification of precipitation forecasts for 1993 from limited-area analysis forecast system[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 1995, 6(3): 281-288.]
[24]	隋玉秀, 杨景泰, 王建, 等. 大连地区冬季降水相态的预报方法初探[J]. 气象, 2015, 41(4): 464-473.
	[Sui Yuxiu, Yang Jingtai, Wang Jian, et al. Preliminary study about the forecasting of winter precipitation types in Dalian[J]. Meteorology Monthly, 2015, 41(4): 464-473.]
[25]	任兆鹏, 张苏平, 马艳, 等. 青岛冬半年降水相态统计分析及判别方法研究[J]. 海洋气象学报, 2018, 38(1): 27-33.
	[Ren Zhaopeng, Zhang Suping, Ma Yan, et al. Statistical analysis and discrimination criterion on precipitation types of winter half year in Qingdao[J]. Journal of Marine Meteorology, 2018, 38(1): 27-33.]
[26]	张丽, 徐朋飞, 吴胜平, 等. 安庆市降水相态识别判据研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2018, 34(1): 30-37.
	[Zhang Li, Xu Pengfei, Wu Shengping, et al. Analysis of identification criterion of precipitation phase in Anqing City[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(1): 30-37.]

类型	库尔勒站	尉犁站	轮台站	和静站	和硕站	焉耆站	合计
降雨	522	243	547	204	246	396	2158
降雪	897	634	706	912	1118	1174	5441
雨夹雪	44	15	43	24	28	22	176
雨转雪	31	19	34	18	22	38	162
合计	1494	911	1330	1158	1414	1630	7937

判据	库尉轮平原				焉耆盆地
判据	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪
T₅₀₀/℃	>-22.7	<-24.7	-	-	>-22.5	<-24.1	-	-23.3~-22.5
T₇₀₀/℃	>-5.8	<-9.1	-	-	>-4.8	<-7.9	-	-6.6~-5.0
T₈₅₀/℃	>4.9	<-7.3	-3.0~-0.7	-0.9~3.8	>6.8	<-6.7	-0.6~2.7	3.2~5.1
T_近地层/℃	>8.3	<-4.1	0.9~4.2	4.5~7.9	>10.3	<-4.6	3.1~5.7	5.7~9.6
T_min/℃	>0.9	<-7.7	-4.5~0.1	0.3~0.8	>0.8	<-7.8	-2.5~0.0	0.0~0.8
T_500~850/℃	<-27.7	>-21.1	-26.6~-23.1	-	<-28.4	>-21.1	-28.4~-25.3	-
T_700~850/℃	<-11.0	>-7.2	-11.3~-8.4	-	<-11.3	>-6.5	-11.3~-8.7	-
H₀/m	>2157.5	<1371.0	-	1419.8~2028.3	>2429.3	<1377.8	1431.3~1952.5	1952.5~2299.0
H_500~850/m	>4114.0	<4026.0	-	4028.5~4106.0	>4122.3	<4037.0	4039.0~4075.0	4089.8~4122.3
H_700~850/m	>1549.0	<1504.0	1508.0~1522.0	1522.0~1546.5	>1561.0	<1509.8	1522.0~1542.0	1544.3~1557.5

物理量	库尉轮平原					焉耆盆地					综合评分（TS₀）
物理量	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	综合	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	综合	综合评分（TS₀）
T_近地层	70.00	68.75	50.00	100.00	69.84	85.29	81.93	33.33	75.00	81.45	77.54
T₈₅₀	92.50	37.50	25.00	66.67	73.02	94.12	46.99	33.33	25.00	59.68	63.17
T_min	95.00	56.25	100.00	33.33	82.54	91.18	66.27	66.67	25.00	71.77	75.41
T_500~850	77.50	68.75	50.00	-	73.33	85.30	67.47	33.33	-	71.67	72.22
T_700~850	92.50	75.00	50.00	-	85.00	85.30	89.16	66.67	-	87.50	86.67
H₀	67.50	100.00	25.00	-	73.33	82.35	98.80	33.33	50.00	91.13	85.79
H_500~850	60.00	100.00	25.00	66.67	68.25	88.24	80.72	33.33	50.00	81.45	77.01
H_700~850	80.00	81.25	25.00	100.00	77.78	94.12	68.67	33.33	50.00	75.00	75.94
综合指标	92.50	100.00	75.00	66.67	92.06	91.18	98.80	33.33	75.00	94.36	93.58

Meteorological factor characteristic and index of precipitation types during winter half year in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 26

Related Articles 2

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	GAO Jing,YANG Tao,LI Haiyan,JING Lihong,LIU Zhenxin,ZENG Hua. Temporal and spatial variation of different precipitation types in Tacheng area of Xinjiang in recent 60 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1347-1356.
[2]	TIAN Ya-lin, LI Xue-mei, LI Zhen, QIN Qi-rui. Spatial and temporal variations of different precipitation types in the Tianshan Mountains from 1980 to 2017 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 308-318.